How would you guys pace this TT?

That's a pretty hilly course. Don't expect a fast time. Also, try to pre-ride it a few times to get a feel for it. It's often hard to tell how steep a climb really is from the profile. Here's what I see:

-- It's over at mile 18 so you have to aim to be throwing up basically at that point.
-- The first 9.5 miles is the flattest part. I would be fairly steady in that part, a little over target wattage on the ups and a little under on the downs.
-- On the hills from 9.5-13.5 miles you should probably get out of the aerobars (once you slow down) and kill it -- over FTP on the ups for sure, particularly that last one. Stand up and power over the top of the hill until you are up to speed, and then rest a bit on the downhills.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by lanierb [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG] -- It's over at mile 18 so you have to aim to be throwing up basically at that point.

Great advice! 🙂 I'll probably be close to that point after that one big hill at mile 13 anyway.

I guess you are right about it being over after mile 18. Well, not over, but everyone's speed will probably normalize there a bit. The big difference, as you suggested, will be on the uphills....

Thanks!

Regardless of the course, we usually start out a little too fast - we've been training hard and are in great shape and eager to get cracking. I didn't see the course profile but 18 "hilly" miles may take the better part of an hour. I would try and refrain from smashing it for the first 10 minutes. You may think you will be loosing time, but the tail end of a TT, whatever the length, is where the big losses are usually made due to hot starts.

The big hill is only 220ft in .7miles. about 5%.

Figure out how many Joules it takes to climb the hill(s). Divide that result from the Joules you can put out for the entire race. That is the percentage you should to reduce your power output on the flats by to do the race well.

But it really does not matter.

How would I pace it? It'd depend on my fitness. If I could demonstrate in a previous event or in training that I could quickly recover from an effort over my FTP and still have the legs for a solid effort to the finish then hit the hills a bit harder. If I hadn't shown that then it'd be a "at FTP" effort around the course . Don't kill it trying to accelerate overly fast out of tight corners or at the far turn. I can't see the course due to being on an iBone and not having Flash. I'd aim to stay as aero as possible for as long as possible. I find I go up 5% hills on the aero bars faster than out the saddle, however if your having issues in the nether regions then that's be a prime spot to stand up a bit. Don't forget - a massive warmup with some over threshold efforts and relax at the start. Wind up the effort at the start and aim to be at threshold after 60 to 90 seconds. The fitter you are the sooner that can be. Bernard Hinault, time trial supremo was the first rider that I saw that did this. The first 30 seconds and it looked like he was still warming up and getting his head in the right place to crush everyone - which he nearly always did...

Thanks everyone! I really appreciate all the responses. I'm not out to break any records here. I just don't want to blow up. I'll hold back for the first 10 minutes, then slowly start to build up from there. I'll gauge it all on how I feel at that point as I think I've previously overestimated my FTP of 250 watts. I'll start out around 220 or so and hold it there in the beginning.

If you think you're in the 220 to 250 range, start off and settle down to 220 at the end of the first minute. See what it feels like, relax and take a while to get into the rhythm of things. If at 5 to 10 minutes you're still feeling good and have more left in the engine then set on the gas and go for 235. If at half distance you're still feeling very good then ramp it up some more. The last thing you need to do is get caught up in the moment and panic - at the end of the day, cruising at 220 and chilling for a minute or three will 'lose' less time that killing it and being dead on the bike for the last quarter of the TT.

When I say "relax" at the start, it's more of a time to make sure that you're sitting on the bike correctly, head tucked in, hands, arms, ass where they physically need to be and head where in mentally needs to be. Take a few seconds to think "did I start right?" If you're going for a TT that's about an hour in length you can do some damage control at the start but don't expect to do so after killing it for an hour and being farked out yo' skull after 40 minutes.

If your TT is more than a half hour in length then the start will likely need to be easier that you expect. Don't tread into L5 territory for too long. Start sensibly and get into that aero tuck.

It's a little late in the day to experiment but when you get over 15 to 18mph, you're better off chilling in an aero tuck and accelerating than going balls to the wall out of the saddle to 25 and realizing 2 miles down the road that you're f**ked.

Good luck and have a good ride.

Well, my time trial race was a disaster this morning. Half way through, my back tire experienced a blowout. There was another cyclist there that started and finished the race two hours before that let me borrow his back wheel. We tried to replace the tube in my tire only to find out my sidewall had a large gash in it. It was not about to hold a tube at 120psi. I lost 12.5 minutes in the whole ordeal. I knew my time was already screwed. And, I was a bit apprehensive at first giving my PowerTap wheel to a complete stranger on the honor system. But, it all worked out okay. He was the real deal and showed up at the finish with my wheel in tow.

My moving time for this 39.5k TT was 1:03:30 (thereabouts), but I have to take in consideration I did get a 12.5 minute rest half way through - so I have no idea what I would have done with no rest stop - maybe 1:05 to 1:07...no clue really. But, I feel this puts me in the realm of a sub-hour possibility next year if I train smart enough. I am very happy with my moving average speed of 22 mph on this very hilly course. Although I don't have power data for the last half of the ride (since I used the other cyclist's wheel without a PowerTap), I do have some data to work with and try to beat next year.

Mark (the cyclist), you really saved my day today. Thank you wherever you are right now.

And thanks to all of you for all the great advice. I literally told myself at the start - "Slow down, slow down, slow down". I realized soon that 220 watts was way too easy after the first couple minutes so I ramped it up pretty quick. My NP for the first 35 minutes was 241 watts (AP was 236). I felt really good and strong when the tire blew. I'm pretty sure I could have maintained or even exceeded that for the rest of the course.

Here's my data if you are interested:
https://www.trainingpeaks.com/sw/54L4Z6M34RGY3SA3JXUIW2UW44

For future reference, there is indeed an optimal power management strategy for a given cyclist and course and conditions (wind, temperature). It's mathematically a bit complex, but essentially it is a mathematical optimization solution to a problem in which one wants to minimize elapsed time with constraints of the power duration curve and one's predicted maximum sustainable power for the predicted duration of the event. I have such a model, but it requires a bit more input data than FTP. A GPS tracking file is sufficient for the course data, although most consumer GPS units have more elevation error than is desirable (because grade is highly significant). I don't always spot such posts in time to help, but if I see one in the future, I'll try to get the input data from you in sufficient time to give you a general idea of an optimal pacing strategy. A precise pacing strategy requires a different computer than you have, but a general pacing strategy is still helpful.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by RapDaddyo [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

For future reference, there is indeed an optimal power management strategy for a given cyclist and course and conditions (wind, temperature). It's mathematically a bit complex, but essentially it is a mathematical optimization solution to a problem in which one wants to minimize elapsed time with constraints of the power duration curve and one's predicted maximum sustainable power for the predicted duration of the event. I have such a model, but it requires a bit more input data than FTP. A GPS tracking file is sufficient for the course data, although most consumer GPS units have more elevation error than is desirable (because grade is highly significant). I don't always spot such posts in time to help, but if I see one in the future, I'll try to get the input data from you in sufficient time to give you a general idea of an optimal pacing strategy. A precise pacing strategy requires a different computer than you have, but a general pacing strategy is still helpful.

Nice! I'd be interested to see this in action. I have error corrected the elevation data in WKO if that helps. What bike computer would you need? I would just need to know how many watts to push and when. I have another TT at the end of the year. I'd be happy to give you any info you would need on that one.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by awilki01 [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

Nice! I'd be interested to see this in action. I have error corrected the elevation data in WKO if that helps. What bike computer would you need? I would just need to know how many watts to push and when. I have another TT at the end of the year. I'd be happy to give you any info you would need on that one.

As to elevation error correction, there are two ways to do it. The best way is to capture a course with a more precise GPS unit, one of the units more commonly associated with surveys. An example of such a unit is here: ashtech.commobilemapper 100 3821.kjspOpen ↗. Alternatively, you can post-process a GPS tracking file and correct for some known errors. A project I am working on will develop precise course files with a mobile mapping unit such as the Ashtech MobileMapper 100 unit. GPS receivers have separate error rates for the x and y planes (i.e., horizontal) and the z plane (i.e., vertical). For purposes of developing a power management strategy for a given course, the x/y-axis error of consumer GPS units is insignificant, but the z-axis error is highly significant due to the importance of grade in developing a power management strategy.

A power management strategy is basically a two-column table with cumulative distance in the 1st column and target power in the 2nd column. Of course, it has other columns for reference purposes (e.g., for each segment average grade, average elevation, total distance, estimated duration, estimated average speed, etc.). The problem is that most handlebar computers have no way of displaying these data, so implementation would require identifying transition points on the course and then figuring out some way of knowing what your target power is at each transition point. For example, if you simplify the power management strategy to a handful of transition points, you could make up a cheat sheet and tape it to your handlebar.

The input data required to develop a power management strategy include information about your fitness that you can normally derive from your ride files, your predicted weight as of the date of the ride, information about your drag which can be estimated by your weight and riding position, and information about your equipment that are used to estimate rolling resistance and wind resistance. You can get an idea of the input data requirements by looking at analyticcycling.comanalyticcycling.comOpen ↗.

If you contact me with a PM prior to your ride, I'll help you develop a power management strategy and suggest how you can identify the major transition points on the course. Often, these points represent the bottom or top of a major climb or a major change in heading.