How Jan or Lance can win

It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in the mountains (and he
says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I believe the next
couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some off days by
his rivals.

Mo

"warren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the
jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the
next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is
able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack
a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan
enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be
able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get.

-WG

The thing that will make this race so great is that Lance will need to keep an eye on climbers that
are stronger than him but also make up the time as you suggest. This is more than a 2 horse race.
Although Mayo is not as dangerous, Lance can't count on taking too much more time on him in the last
TT. Mayo also has Zubeldia equal on QC. Those 2 will attack all the way until Luz Ardiden. The best
thing about this race is that nobody has a position that they can confidently defend. The first 5
guys on GC all have to attack if they want this race.

I am a fan of the sport so I am happy as long as the race is good. Still, I am a bit worried for
Jan. As great as he has done, the race is getting more and more difficult over the next 3 stages. He
may just fall apart on any of those stages. Still, he can go home with a stage win in the bag and
the knowledge that he can come back to the top.

No matter what happens from here, we are all witness to a vintage Tour.

Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What would you think about that if
you were to think about that?

"warren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his

chances

Quoted message said:

in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the

steeper

Quoted message said:

climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match
those accelerations but he is able to

recover

Quoted message said:

most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from
the finish each day and reap the benefit

of

Quoted message said:

his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way

back.

Quoted message said:

If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be

able

Quoted message said:

to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get.

-WG

Tom Kunich said:

Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What would you think about that if
you were to think about that?

You need to justify this statement. Certainly the ITT data don't support this conjecture. You
compare Lance to Ullrich. What if you compare him to Botaro? Last year Botaro was faster. This year
Lance was much faster.

Last year, Miller was 39 seconds slower than Lance in ITT1. This year, Miller was almost two
minutes slower.

Last year, Hamilton was 1:56 slower. This year, he was 1:07 slower.

Last year, Basso was 1:32 slower. This year, he was 4:24 slower.

Last year, Zubeldia was 2:39 slower. This year,
1:04 slower.

Last year, Chaurreau was 4:58 slower. This year, only 2:25 slower.

Mancebo went from 2:30 down in 2002, to 3:24 down this year.

So I'm getting a mixed picture. Seven riders -- 3 improved on Armstrong relative to last year, 4 got
slower relative to Armstrong. I see no signature of a "fairly wide margin".

Dan

In article <[email hidden]>, Tom Kunich

Quoted message said:

Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin. What would you think about that if
you were to think about that?

I don't see that he is much slower than last year. His strategy has been a bit different but this
year there will be four days in the steeper mountains when there were only three days last year. He
accelerated away from Jan on the Alpe and I think he can do that again in the next few days.

-WG

Quoted message said:

"warren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his

chances

Quoted message said:

in the final TT for the jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the

steeper

Quoted message said:

climbs they'll do in the next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match
those accelerations but he is able to

recover

Quoted message said:

most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack a few k's from
the finish each day and reap the benefit

of

Quoted message said:

his accelerations without giving Jan enough time to claw his way

back.

Quoted message said:

If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be

able

Quoted message said:

to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get.

-WG

"Nick Burns" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"warren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the
jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the
next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he
is able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could
attack a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without
giving Jan enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions
he should be able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get.

-WG

The thing that will make this race so great is that Lance will need to

keep

Quoted message said:

an eye on climbers that are stronger than him but also make up the time as you suggest. This is
more than a 2 horse race. Although Mayo is not as dangerous, Lance can't count on taking too much
more time on him in the

last

Quoted message said:

TT. Mayo also has Zubeldia equal on QC. Those 2 will attack all the way until Luz Ardiden. The
best thing about this race is that nobody has a position that they can confidently defend. The
first 5 guys on GC all have to attack if they want this race.

I am a fan of the sport so I am happy as long as the race is good. Still,

I

Quoted message said:

am a bit worried for Jan. As great as he has done, the race is getting

more

Quoted message said:

and more difficult over the next 3 stages. He may just fall apart on any

of

Quoted message said:

those stages. Still, he can go home with a stage win in the bag and the knowledge that he can come
back to the top.

No matter what happens from here, we are all witness to a vintage Tour.

IAWTP. Jeff

"warren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the
jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up.

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the
next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is
able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack
a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan
enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be
able to win the Tour.

Yes....provided of course he doesn't let Mayo and the other Spanish riders gain too much time...

Quoted message said:

Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get.

-WG

Quoted message said:

I don't see that he is much slower than last year. His strategy has been a bit different but this
year there will be four days in the steeper mountains when there were only three days last year.
He accelerated away from Jan on the Alpe and I think he can do that again in the next few days.

I think Lance's fans are in denial. It wasn't among seven riders that he crossed the line at Alpe
D'huez in 2001. There was no one like Vino to take
1.5 minutes out of him in the only two hard mountain stages to date. And losing 1.5 min to Ullrich
in the TT is not just a "different" strategy.

Yes, Lance's strategy has been "different", I'll give you that. But scrambling to hang on when
rivals pull away from him isn't really a tactical improvement. If it weren't for the team time
trial, bear in mind, Lance wouldn't be in yellow at all. Vino would be. And Lance wouldn't be able
to get the time back.

"warren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

I think Jan just needs to stay close to Armstrong and take his chances in the final TT for the
jersey. He can't get away from Lance unless Lance just blows up.

I see Vino as a bigger threat than Jan right now. If he can manage anything like the same time he
put into LA on L'Alpe over the next 3 stages, and he time trials as well as he did today in the
penultimate stage, he could walk away with it.

On the other hand, if we see today that Jan has mountain legs and can contain his losses to
Armstrong over the next 72 hours, then the race will likely become a showdown in the final TT.

Whatever happens, today is going to be one hell of a day in the mountains!!

D.

Quoted message said:

Armstrong and his buddy Heras are good at accelerating on the steeper climbs they'll do in the
next few days (steeper than the Alps). Jan hasn't been able to match those accelerations but he is
able to recover most of his losses by the time the reaches the finish. I think Lance could attack
a few k's from the finish each day and reap the benefit of his accelerations without giving Jan
enough time to claw his way back. If Lance can gain 20-40 seconds on 3 or 4 occasions he should be
able to win the Tour. Tyler should follow Jan around and see what he can get.

-WG

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"LanterneRouge" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I don't see that he is much slower than last year. His strategy has been a bit different but
this year there will be four days in the steeper mountains when there were only three days
last year. He accelerated away from Jan on the Alpe and I think he can do that again in the
next few days.

I think Lance's fans are in denial. It wasn't among seven riders that he crossed the line at Alpe
D'huez in 2001. There was no one like Vino to

take

Quoted message said:

1.5 minutes out of him in the only two hard mountain stages to date. And losing 1.5 min to Ullrich
in the TT is not just a "different" strategy.

Yes, Lance's strategy has been "different", I'll give you that. But scrambling to hang on when
rivals pull away from him isn't really a

tactical

Quoted message said:

improvement. If it weren't for the team time trial, bear in mind, Lance wouldn't be in yellow at
all. Vino would be. And Lance wouldn't be able

to

Quoted message said:

get the time back.

And if you didn't have your head up your ass you eyes wouldn't be brown!

Dashii

Although Lances ITT isn't as stella as before, he still easily makes time on everyone except Jan.
Lance can afford to ignore attacks from everyone else, only focus on what Jan is doing.

Bike Camano said:

It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in the mountains (and he
says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I believe the next
couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some off days by
his rivals.

Mo

[email hidden] (Bike Camano) wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into Lance in the mountains (and he
says he will) Lance may have is hands full. That could benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I believe the next
couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form or some off days by
his rivals.

Mo

I don't think Tyler is out of it at all. He's had a few days of non-steep riding, so his collarbone
should affect him less. Supposedly, he did his time trial at 95% effort.

it's like 70 degrees and cloudless, and I'm gonna sit here watching the tour. It better be good
(probably will).

"g" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Although Lances ITT isn't as stella as before, he still easily makes time on everyone except Jan.
Lance can afford to ignore attacks from everyone else, only focus on what Jan is doing.

So he can ignore Vino?

Quoted message said:

Bike Camano said:

It's more than a two horse race. If Vino continues to put time into

Lance

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

in the mountains (and he says he will) Lance may have is hands full.

That

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

could benefit Jan.

Tyler and Iban are not completely out of it (anything can happen in the tour) I believe the next
couple of days should be very interesting.

Lance is going to need some luck and maybe a a day or two of super form

or

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

some off days by his rivals.

Mo

Quoted message said:

And if you didn't have your head up your ass you eyes wouldn't be brown!

Dashii

Shut up, jackass. Don't you have enough studying to do for your GRE this summer without playing
around on the internet?

D'Huez was slower this year and Lance couldn't keep up. The TT was a hilly one this year and you'd
have expected climbers to do comparitively better. Today's stage again showed Ullrich faster. This
is not last year's Lance and it isn't because Jan is faster. Last year no one was "faster" than
Lance. There were people who he let go.

"Daniel Connelly" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

Warren, Lance is slower than last year by a fairly wide margin.

What

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

would you think about that if you were to think about that?

You need to justify this statement. Certainly the ITT data don't

support

Quoted message said:

this conjecture. You compare Lance to Ullrich. What if you compare him to Botaro? Last year Botaro
was faster. This year Lance was

much

Quoted message said:

faster.

Last year, Miller was 39 seconds slower than Lance in ITT1. This year, Miller was almost two
minutes slower.

Last year, Hamilton was 1:56 slower. This year, he was 1:07 slower.

Last year, Basso was 1:32 slower. This year, he was 4:24 slower.

Last year, Zubeldia was 2:39 slower. This year,
1:04 slower.

Last year, Chaurreau was 4:58 slower. This year, only 2:25 slower.

Mancebo went from 2:30 down in 2002, to 3:24 down this year.

So I'm getting a mixed picture. Seven riders -- 3 improved on Armstrong relative to last year, 4
got slower relative to Armstrong. I see no signature of a "fairly wide margin".

Dan