How fast was Cancellara?

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Oops.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Oops.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

O'Grady didn't do too bad either. I take it that's him in the bottom
right.

Joseph

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Oops.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

How fast? Suspiciously fast.

--
Michael Press

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

You know, the Flemish commentators actually called him
"extraterrestrial"...

--
E. Dronkert

in message <[email hidden]>,

(' ') said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

What interests me is that none of the commentators rate him as even an
outside bet for GC - the ITV4 team were describing him as a 'prologue
specialist'. Excuse me? For what is Paris-Roubaix the prologue?

Excellent time triallist, seems to do well in classics (PR, Ghent -
Wevelgem); won GC in the Tour of Denmark last year, and second on GC in
the Tour of Luxembourd the year before, but they're all flat and the
opposition wasn't first class.

However, he's got a lot of decent places in non-CLM stages in grand tours:

2007
4eme de la 6eme etape du Tour of California (Solvang CLM Ind)
3eme de la 2eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Olten - Luzern)
12eme de la 3eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Brunnen - Nauders (A))
2006

2005
7eme de la 1ere etape du Tour de France (Fromentine - ÃŽle de Noirmoutier
CLM Ind)
6eme de la 7eme etape du Tour de France (Lunéville - Karlsruhe)
3eme de la 21eme etape du Tour de France (Corbeil-Essonnes - Paris
Champs-Élysées)
6eme de la 5eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Sölden – Friedrichshafen)
3eme de la 9eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Bad Kreuznach – Bonn)

I know it's a joke that a Dane riding for a Dutch team gets to be King of
the Mountains with monotonous regularity, so there's no reason in
principle why there can't be a Swiss rider who's hopeless in the
mountains. In the 2005 mountain stages, his results were as follows:

9 145 at 19.06
10 139 at 38.11
11 120 at 39.46
12 151 at 11.13
14 120 at 35.50
15 101 at 37.57
16 92 at 20.16
(finished 128th on GC, took the white jersey)

.... which is [censored]. He basically came home in the bus every day. In 2006 he
wasn't on the start list for the Tour, but he rode the Vuelta. Mountain
stages:

5 137 at 27.59
7 136 at 20.49
9 129 at 29.45
(abandoned after stage 15 to prepare for ITT world champs)

.... again, no sign of climbing ability. However, stage 3 of this years Tour
de Suisse was this one:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/jun07/suisse07/?id=stages/suisse073
which is not the least bit flat, and he finished 12th, just 7 seconds
behind the stage winner. He gave credit for his performance to the team:

"It is clear that the goal was to defend the jersey. The work my team did
today was extraordinary," he said with a smile. "Carlos and Frank are
capable of fighting for the general classification but when we have the
jersey on our shoulders, we are responsible for the chase."

So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white jersey,
he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's shown he
can climb.

Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
soon.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other
;; languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and riffle their
;; pockets for new vocabulary -- James D. Nicoll

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Quoted message said:

Oops.

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

How fast? Suspiciously fast.

--
Michael Press

Dumbasses -

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Quoted post said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Oops.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

O'Grady didn't do too bad either. I take it that's him in the bottom
right.

No, that was Ruben Lobato Elvira. Who looks to be as far off everyone else as
Cancellara, only in the opposite direction.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Oops.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

Needs to show the Millar line.

Simon Brooke said:

in message <[email hidden]>,

(' ') said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

What interests me is that none of the commentators rate him as even an
outside bet for GC - the ITV4 team were describing him as a 'prologue
specialist'. Excuse me? For what is Paris-Roubaix the prologue?

Quoted message said:

So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white jersey,
he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's shown he
can climb.

Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
soon.

Great guy, but that was not much of a mountain stage in the TDS when
he finished 7" down, a rolling climb at the end of the stage and he
was actually dropped and caught up by going flat out.

Commentators seem to think he is too heavy to climb, we shall see...

In article <[email hidden]>,

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Oops.

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

How fast? Suspiciously fast.

Heh. Very much so.

Millar Line:

13 David Millar (GBr) Saunier Duval - Prodir 0.33

33 seconds down, and he's a TT specialist for whom this stage was a
goal? He really must be clean.

Cancellara (and Klodi) just announced that they are here to play.

--
Ryan Cousineau [email hidden] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

Simon Brooke said:

Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
soon.

Dumbass -

TT-ing is ability to make a high ratio of continuous power vs. frontal
area.

Climbing is a related, but different ability. It's continuous power
vs. mass.

There are many examples of world class TTers who were not able to keep
up with the world class climbers in the big mountain stages of the
Grand Tours.

There are also many examples of world class climbers who can't keep up
with world class TTers.

Which is not to say Cancellara won't be able to do both. I doubt it
though. He hasn't shown anything in the mountains.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, [email hidden] wrote:
>http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Quoted message said:

Oops.

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

How fast? Suspiciously fast.

Dumbasses -

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

More like the integral of a unimodal distribution function.

--
Michael Press

"Kurgan Gringioni" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

Not to point out the obvious but there shouldn't be those sort of shapes in
a sport that has the best of the best.

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, [email hidden] wrote:
>http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Oops.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png

Quoted message said:

How fast? Suspiciously fast.

Quoted message said:

--
Michael Press

Dumbasses -

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

dumbass,

your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph

what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.

Tom Kunich said:

"Kurgan Gringioni" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

Not to point out the obvious but there shouldn't be those sort of shapes in
a sport that has the best of the best.

Except this isn't a group of riders selected for prologue ability, so a normal distribution makes sense.

Dan

Quoted message said:

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Michael Press said:

In article
<[email hidden]>,
[email hidden] wrote:
> On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, [email hidden] wrote:
>> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
> Oops.
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
How fast? Suspiciously fast.
--
Michael Press

Dumbasses -

Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

dumbass,

your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph

what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.

Log arithmetic WITH the flip up, if you please! When we used "Lincoln
Logs" in our 3rd grade math class you would not BELIEVE the fun we had
making miniscule catapults and flipping "Lincoln Logs" all over the
place! It was COOL!

By the way, doesn't today's Chung chart resemble Steve Carell's nose
just a bit?

Fred Fredburger
RBR Math Advisor

Fred Fredburger said:

Log arithmetic WITH the flip up, if you please! When we used "Lincoln
Logs" in our 3rd grade math class you would not BELIEVE the fun we had
making miniscule catapults and flipping "Lincoln Logs" all over the
place! It was COOL!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lincoln+log

Kyle Legate said:

Fred Fredburger said:

Log arithmetic WITH the flip up, if you please! When we used "Lincoln
Logs" in our 3rd grade math class you would not BELIEVE the fun we had
making miniscule catapults and flipping "Lincoln Logs" all over the
place! It was COOL!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lincoln+log

I wasn't aware of that but it's appropriate, given the Steve Carell
reference.

Michael Press said:

How fast? Suspiciously fast.

How can you say that? Everyone signed the ProTour pledge so now, of
course, the peloton must be clean. To suggest otherwise would be
saying that the UCI, the WADA, and the ASO are simply promoting
insincere window dressing.