How can Ullrich beat Armstrong?

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by hpdchep
Hi there,

knowing bike races only from TV, I would like to hear your opinion about the right tactics to compete against Armstrong.

Remembering the attack of Ullrich in 2003 at the last but one mountain (the stage where Armstrong fell later), I was reading
a thread somewhere in this forum where some people said
that this attack of Ullrich was a big, stupid mistake.

Can somebody explain why?

From what I see: Armstrong has the ability to accelerate
with a much lower frequence and if he chooses he can distance
Ullrich anytime (as long as he still has the power) on a climb.
At least for a certain time.
In the said stage one could also see that he pulled away over 1 minute and lost 20-30 seconds again at the end.

So without any deeper knowledge in bike races I would say:
Ullrichs only chance is not to wait until Armstrong chooses to attack on the last mountain, but to attack earlier, trying to power
out Armstrong. So why was the attack in 2003 a big mistake?
I would consider it the only chance he has to compete with Armstrong.

Regards,
Chris

The Attack was not a mistake imo. If LA had not have fallen he may have been in trouble. How do I justify that? simple, JU is a big gear jammer, when he waited for LA he lost momentum, look how many times LA has jumped away easily just to have JU come stomping back. Again imo, I believe to beat LA, JU has to pick the right bumps, steaper climbs are for LA, he must attack on the long drags. I doubt wether my theory will be put to the test as both may be groveling on the back of Mayo. If he finds consistant form both JU and LA may find themselfs working hard for their $$$$

The only way to beat Armstrong this year will be to attack relentlessly every stage so he cannot keep up. The fall actually may have helped Armstrong, because after he fall he was furious and that gave him extra insentive to catch up. Yes he had some breaks by Beloki crashing but overall he had the will to win and if he keeps it up he will make history this time arround.

Ullrich has to really do well on the time trials, since he isn't nearly as good as Lance in the mountains. Of course, Lance is also good in the TT...

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by keydates
Ullrich has to really do well on the time trials, since he isn't nearly as good as Lance in the mountains. Of course, Lance is also good in the TT...

It will be interesting to see who does better in the Alpe d'Huez ITT. It may suit Jan better as he can grind away at his own pace. Lance can do as many sudden bursts as he wants without putting pressure on Jan.

Of course the other way to beat Lance is to push him over on the cobblestones tonight.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Fixey
The Attack was not a mistake imo. If LA had not have fallen he may have been in trouble. How do I justify that? simple, JU is a big gear jammer, when he waited for LA he lost momentum, look how many times LA has jumped away easily just to have JU come stomping back. Again imo, I believe to beat LA, JU has to pick the right bumps, steaper climbs are for LA, he must attack on the long drags. I doubt wether my theory will be put to the test as both may be groveling on the back of Mayo. If he finds consistant form both JU and LA may find themselfs working hard for their $$$$

Were a little confused here. The attack from Ulrich came on the Tourmalet, the climb before the fall on Luz-Ardiden. It was a mistake for a couple of reasons: one he would have never been able to keep a lead even if he could have pulled away as he would have lost most probably all of it as Lance is a much superior descender than Jan on the way down, and second he would have been spent for the next harder climb of Luz-Ardiden.

When Lance and Iban fell, Lance was clearly making his move and the 2 were pulling away from the rest of the field. The fall helped Ulrich tremendoulsly as it interrupted Lance's attack and gave Ulrich time to slow and recover. Had he not fallen the 40 seconds lost during the stage certainly would have been significantly more for Jan and the others. Remember also that Iban was staying with Lance during the initial attack and he also finished 40 seconds back for the stage.

The problem is Jan cannot attack Lance in the mountains. In every tour the two have ridden together Lance has been able to put serious time into Jan in the mountains. That only leaves the flat stages and TTs for Jan to make up time and surpass Lance.

IMO Jan is riding for second place in every tour unless he can come up with a serious attack in the mountains that can put Lance in difficulty. Last year was a bit of a fluke in that Lance was sick and injured comming into the tour and he didn't really feel good until almost the end. Last year was the best opprtunity for anyone to beat Lance that will probably come along yet no one could do it.

I hate to say it, but JU can't do very much to dethrone LA absent some mistake/problem encountered by LA. JU is going to lose some time to LA in the Alpe d'Huez ITT, and there's only one other ITT in the tour. As much as it saddens me, I'd have to say, for JU to win, he has to see LA make a mistake/somehow not perform at the level LA is likely to perform.

In the mountains, JU is going to lose time too. LA is going to follow Heras when Heras makes the move, just like LA used to.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette
JU is going to lose some time to LA in the Alpe d'Huez ITT.

I am not so sure. Lance's explosiveness in the climbs will not be a factor in an ITT. Jan just has to grind away at his own good pace. The ones with the advantage in that stage are the pure climbers like Heras, Mayo +/- Hamilton.

We shall see, shouldn't we? Note LA has the full capabilities in the mountains of a "pure climber", which Hamilton clearly is not. So Heras and Mayo are only "pure climbers" in the sense they don't ITT and TTT as well.

For Ullrich to stand a better chance against Armstrong there are really only 3 options:-

1) Travel to Dodgy Russian Lab and have second heart fitted.

2) Hidden Jet Engine in food bag.

3) Lance pulls out of TDF to "spend some quality time with his woman"

I think you will agree, all 3 are extremely unlikely!

Lance says that the Tour de France will be decided before the peloton gets to the Alps. Apparently, this is true for Mayo already. As for Ullrich, Hamilton, Basso and Heras, we will see what's in store for them tomorrow during the TTT.

USPS sure is a strong flat stage team. They are great at protecting Lance. Today, their goal was to be the first to the cobblestones, and that's what they did. Mayo paid dearly.

If Ullrich knows Armstrong can beat him in the mountains, why doesn't he attack on the flat stages? Doesn't T-Mobile have a strong enough team to pull off this type of attack?

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Cam the Ram
If Ullrich knows Armstrong can beat him in the mountains

He is going to have to try to beat him in the mountains at least by a little and certainly in the flat ITT. They have not raced against each other in the mountains for a while so he'll have to believe that he can beat Lance. If he "knows" he can't beat him, then he is fighting for 2nd place.

Quoted post said:

Why doesn't he attack on the flat stages?Doesn't T-Mobile have a strong enough team to pull off this type of attack?

It is very hard to achieve this. USPS will be able to chase down such a breakaway, and in reality it would not get far ahead before they did.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by davidbod
Were a little confused here. The attack from Ulrich came on the Tourmalet, the climb before the fall on Luz-Ardiden. It was a mistake for a couple of reasons: one he would have never been able to keep a lead even if he could have pulled away as he would have lost most probably all of it as Lance is a much superior descender than Jan on the way down, and second he would have been spent for the next harder climb of Luz-Ardiden.

When Lance and Iban fell, Lance was clearly making his move and the 2 were pulling away from the rest of the field. The fall helped Ulrich tremendoulsly as it interrupted Lance's attack and gave Ulrich time to slow and recover. Had he not fallen the 40 seconds lost during the stage certainly would have been significantly more for Jan and the others. Remember also that Iban was staying with Lance during the initial attack and he also finished 40 seconds back for the stage.

The problem is Jan cannot attack Lance in the mountains. In every tour the two have ridden together Lance has been able to put serious time into Jan in the mountains. That only leaves the flat stages and TTs for Jan to make up time and surpass Lance.

IMO Jan is riding for second place in every tour unless he can come up with a serious attack in the mountains that can put Lance in difficulty. Last year was a bit of a fluke in that Lance was sick and injured comming into the tour and he didn't really feel good until almost the end. Last year was the best opprtunity for anyone to beat Lance that will probably come along yet no one could do it.

You are very insightful. Well put!

Lance made the comment in post race interviews last year, 2003, that the moment he knew that Jan had lost the Tour was the moment Jan attacked on the Tourmalet. The commentator asked him why, and Lance said that the attack came way too early. He knew Jan simply could not survive that long. It was too much too soon. Lance responded not by counterattacking, but by minimizing the damage. Sure enough, Jan later did not have the legs to follow Lance's subsequent attack up the Luz-Ardiden, even after Lance's setback in the fall and the bobbling he did right after that. This might have been different if Jan had not attacked on the Tourmalet.

Perhaps the move was a psychological ploy to get Lance to blow himself up on the Tourmalet. It didn't work.

Ullrich's attack on the Tourmalet was a surprise to everyone including LA. I agree that it was a strange move knowing the finish was at Luz Ardiden. In an interview in the March issue of Cycle Sport Ullrich says that when he attacked he wanted to test Armstrong and he said tha if the tactic worked then everyone would have said how great a move it was!

However what his attack on the Tourmalet did achieve was ending Vinokourov's challenge for the Tour. LA lead JU by 15 seconds and AV by 18 seconds. Therefore with Vino dropped early on the Tourmalet JU only had to worry about LA and not Vino getting the jump on him.

The only solution I see to JU beating LA is for JU to somehow manage to constantly attack USPS.
Obviously JU cannot attacksUSPS day after day himself.
JU will need his team and other teams to force the issue with USPS.

That's why the loss of Mayo is a factor in LA's favour.
Mayo would surely have been a potential threat along with JU and
TH.
Now LA only really has two contenders left.

The loss of Vino is also a terrible blow to Mobile and indirectly JU.
If Vino was in the mix, it would give LA something else to think about too.

Ullrich will peg time back in the ITT against LA.
But before getting to that stage, JU has to devise a plan (or create an alliance) where attacks are made on a daily basis against USPS, in the hope that it might wear them down.

The loss of 15 seconds in the Prologue just set the same tone
as usual - LA being diligent and JU playing catchup.
OK JU probably had the final 2003 ITT in his mind and didn't want to crash in the prologue at 2004 TDF.

I think the loss of Mayo was a plus in Lance's favor, but maybe it would help Ullrich. Mayo may attack in the mountains to win a stage, and if JU manages to get on his wheel, he may find the time gap he needs. The stars have to line up properly for Jan, but I wouldn't say Mayo's elimination from GC contention helps Lance against Jan. It could go either way. Maybe it would be Lance on Mayo's wheel and Jan left behind.

I don't think Jan will beat Lance in the final ITT, unless it's hazardous conditions, and Lance already has a sizable gap and doesn't need that win. Lance seems very strong this year.

What happens with Mayo should be interesting, I'm hoping he will be really agressive in the mountains as he so far behind on GC. LA still can't afford to let him get away which may help JU and TH. It depends if Mayo has any interest in GC or has settled for stage wins.

The loss of Mayo as a real contender doesn't help JU relative to LA. Mayo is going to accelerate quickly when he attacks in the mountains. If Mayo is more aggressive, who do you think, as between LA and JU, can follow those bursts of aggression that Mayo may undertaken? LA's intrinsic biking style in the mountains makes him much better able to respond to Mayo's playfulness there.

Therefore, I don't see any way JU can will over LA, sadly, unless something unfortunate happens to LA. The simple truth is that LA is at least as good as JU in ITT, including mountain ITT of course, and LA is better than JU in the mountains. Also, LA has a better mix of domestiques to assist him in both the flats and the mountains. Hmm, where does that leave JU's winning strategy?

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette


The simple truth is that LA is at least as good as JU in ITT, including mountain ITT of course, and LA is better than JU in the mountains. Also, LA has a better mix of domestiques to assist him in both the flats and the mountains. Hmm, where does that leave JU's winning strategy?

Ullrich took nearly two minutes out of LA in last years ITT,
so how you can say that LA is at least as good as JU in the ITT
is puzzling.

Ullrich gets stronger as the race progresses.
LA always starts the TDF well.
If LA weakens at all, I am confident that JU will be there to
contest.

I also disagree with the view about Mayo.
As it now stands Mayo is not going to be challenging on overall
GC.
Therefore, LA has one less contend to watch as of now.