This is from MrBookmaker.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Tour 2004 - Petacchi
Tour de France 2004 : How many stages will Alessandro Petacchi win ? (Petacchi must start in the Tour de France 2004 otherwise the bet will be refunded - The prologue as well as the team time trial do not count for this bet)
None 16.00 Exactly 1 or 2 stage(s) 3.50 Exactly 3 or 4 stages 2.50 Exactly 5 or 6 stages 2.75 7 stages or more 4.75 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So it appears that the betting line is that Petacchi will slap the other sprinters around at will. What surprises me is that there appears to be no risk factor. Sprinters get busted up all the time i.e. Cipo in this year's Giro. Sprinting is a pretty hazardous occupation, and there appears to be no recognition of that.
There also seems to be no recognition of how difficult it is for one team to control enough stages for one guy to win that often. I think the Tour is way different from the Giro in that respect.
"Bob Schwartz" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...
Quoted message said:
This is from MrBookmaker.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Tour 2004 - Petacchi
Tour de France 2004 : How many stages will Alessandro Petacchi win ? (Petacchi must start in the Tour de France 2004 otherwise the bet will be refunded - The prologue as well as the team time trial do not count for this bet)
None 16.00 Exactly 1 or 2 stage(s) 3.50 Exactly 3 or 4 stages 2.50 Exactly 5 or 6 stages 2.75 7 stages or more 4.75 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So it appears that the betting line is that Petacchi will slap the other sprinters around at will. What surprises me is that there appears to be no risk factor. Sprinters get busted up all the time i.e. Cipo in this year's Giro. Sprinting is a pretty hazardous occupation, and there appears to be no recognition of that.
There also seems to be no recognition of how difficult it is for one team to control enough stages for one guy to win that often. I think the Tour is way different from the Giro in that respect.
Bob Schwartz [email hidden]
Boonen could throw a curve at them. It will be fun.
There also seems to be no recognition of how difficult it is for one team to control enough stages for one guy to win that often. I think the Tour is way different from the Giro in that respect.
This is from MrBookmaker.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Tour 2004 - Petacchi
Tour de France 2004 : How many stages will Alessandro Petacchi win ? (Petacchi must start in the Tour de France 2004 otherwise the bet will be refunded - The prologue as well as the team time trial do not count for this bet)
None 16.00 Exactly 1 or 2 stage(s) 3.50 Exactly 3 or 4 stages 2.50 Exactly 5 or 6 stages 2.75 7 stages or more 4.75 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So it appears that the betting line is that Petacchi will slap the other sprinters around at will. What surprises me is that there appears to be no risk factor. Sprinters get busted up all the time i.e. Cipo in this year's Giro. Sprinting is a pretty hazardous occupation, and there appears to be no recognition of that.
True, but the dangerous area starts about 6 inches BEHIND Petacchi's wheel.
In article <[email hidden]>, Bob Schwartz <[email hidden]> wrote:
Quoted message said:
Quoted message said:
This is from MrBookmaker.com +++++++++++++++++++++++++ Tour 2004 - Petacchi
Tour de France 2004 : How many stages will Alessandro Petacchi win ? (Petacchi must start in the Tour de France 2004 otherwise the bet will be refunded - The prologue as well as the team time trial do not count for this bet)
None 16.00 Exactly 1 or 2 stage(s) 3.50 Exactly 3 or 4 stages 2.50 Exactly 5 or 6 stages 2.75 7 stages or more 4.75 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So it appears that the betting line is that Petacchi will slap the other sprinters around at will. What surprises me is that there appears to be no risk factor. Sprinters get busted up all the time i.e. Cipo in this year's Giro. Sprinting is a pretty hazardous occupation, and there appears to be no recognition of that.
Quoted message said:
True, but the dangerous area starts about 6 inches BEHIND Petacchi's wheel.
I can think of one other Grand Tour besides this year's Giro where Cipo crashed and didn't win a stage. The other was the 1994 Vuelta. The odds of that happening to any given sprinter are not insignificant. Consider, in both cases he got tangled with a member of his own team. It's a high risk occupation, and [censored] happens.
Yet according to the betting line we are much more likely to see 7 or more wins for Jet-Ale. I think I'd put my money on 'None' at 16 to 1.
There also seems to be no recognition of how difficult it is for one team to control enough stages for one guy to win that often. I think the Tour is way different from the Giro in that respect.
Quoted message said:
'member Cipo winning 4 in a row in '99?
In 1997 Cipo lost the yellow jersey to Vasseur on a long breakaway. He had been leading for several days and Saeco was too fried on riding tempo so they sat up and let him take it.
The Tour does a lot less of that "piano, piano" [censored] than the Giro, and Fassa Bortolo is not going to get any help from any other team in holding things together.
The other side is that Petacchi is much more likely to still be in the race beyond the first week, so he might pick up a transitional stage. But the opportunists are targeting those so it will be very hard.
I think he'll get his share of wins, but I have a hard time seeing him win stages in bulk like he did in the Giro.
