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Helmet redux

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2 June 2005
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gds
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  1. Well the extant helmet thread is getting quite long and the "debate'
    remains quite heated. I've raised a point (in favor of voluntary
    helmet use) a number of times and it has never had a direct response.
    So I thought I'd try it again in a new thread.

    For a moment let us put aside all of the published research - both pro
    & con. My issue is the personally witnessed events where a helmet is
    percieved to have prevented or reduced an injury. aI think that this
    type of data is improtant in individual decsions on helmet use.

    In my own case I have seen many crashes over the years but only two in
    which I am completely convinced that a helmet prevented injury. In one
    instance I was the rider. I came off my bike on a single track and my
    head smashed into a large boulder alongside the trail. The helmet
    worked as designed. The hard shell shattered and the foam inner had a
    large dent. I had no injury to my head whatsoever.

    I witnessed a similar case in which a companion came off his bike and
    his head impacted the curb. This was long ago and the helmet was the
    type with the styrofoam core with a nylon cover. In this instance the
    helmet also performed as designed and the foam broke up absorbing the
    shock of the strike but there was no injury.

    So, my thought is that modern, light weight helmets can, in some cases
    prevent head injuries. And modern light weight helmets now are so light
    and have so much air flow that the "discomfort factor" is very low.
    Thus, I don't see much of a down side.

    All this argument over study methodolgies, compulsion causing less
    cycling, and the idea that there are more head injuries in motor
    vehicles seem to me to be simply changing the subject. Bicycle helemts
    do add some measure of observable benefit. Now the debate of just how
    much that benefit might be is valid. But as I and others have witnessed
    events with such benefit and the citations of helmets causng accidents
    are extremely rare or invole unsupervised childrren (another separate
    issue) it goes against all intuiton that there is NO benefit.

  2. gds said:

    So, my thought is that modern, light weight helmets can, in some cases
    prevent head injuries. And modern light weight helmets now are so light
    and have so much air flow that the "discomfort factor" is very low.
    Thus, I don't see much of a down side.

    I think there's a small amount of merit to the argument that people tend to
    ride a little bit more daringly when they know they have a helmet on.
    Whether this 'little bit more' crosses the axis with the 14mph crash rating
    is hard to know. There's also the feeling that in some slow speed sideways
    falls the width of the helmet actually causes the contact with the ground.
    This is probably true, but though you might not strike the head, the
    whiplash to the neck might be a bit stronger.

    The problem with these 'might prevent some' arguments is that they're too
    often used to give legislaters the idea that helmets should be mandated,
    and they might give the legal community a 'reason' to mitigate damages
    because, for whatever reason the person hit by the car might not have had a
    helmet on.

    These things are not good - choices should remain and we should not be
    willing to penalize a person for not wearing a device that is much less
    useful in preventing injury on the road than most non-cyclists, and perhaps
    beginning cyclists believe.

    So what if your POV is taken as the right one. What would you do if, now,
    having a nationally mandated bicycle helmet law, the legislators suddenly
    realize the made a law based on the idea that this helmet is just for low
    speed fall-overs - 'hey, we need bigger and heavier foam and more padding
    and, well, let's just make the buggers wear a full face motorcycle helmet,
    b/c that -will- prevent those head injuries'. Haha.

    I joke, but durn, it wouldn't surprise me.

    jj

  3. You are switching this over to the "compulsion" arguement again. First
    we have to understand the value of the helmet before compulsion can
    ever be broached. I'm no where near arguing for compulsion.

  4. "gds" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Well the extant helmet thread is getting quite long and the "debate'
    remains quite heated. I've raised a point (in favor of voluntary
    helmet use) a number of times and it has never had a direct response.
    So I thought I'd try it again in a new thread.

    If a helmet makes you more comfortable, wear one. You are, in the end,
    responsible only for yourself.

    For me, I perceive the risk as vanishingly small. I am a skilled, well
    trained cyclist with decades of experience. I am (mostly) a
    transportational/utility cyclist who does not engage in competitive or
    "extreme" cycling. I ride as a vehicle, following the rules of the road. No
    single track, no curb jumping.

    I have fallen on occasion, but never was my head in danger.

    I want more people to ride bikes in our cities and suburbs, and fewer of
    them to drive cars

    People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the world: "I'm doing something
    dangerous." There is no evidence I'm aware of to make such a statement any
    more true of cycling than it is of driving.

    I do not wish to make such a statement, especially to the urban and suburban
    drivers who surround me when I ride.

    RichC

  5. gds said:

    You are switching this over to the "compulsion" arguement again. First
    we have to understand the value of the helmet before compulsion can
    ever be broached. I'm no where near arguing for compulsion.

    Gary, I'm not saying 'you' are arguing for compulsion. I'm arguing for
    choice and offering that if people start believing a 'fiction' about
    helmets that it could lead to compulsion and then additional dumbass things
    like requiring heavy non-breathable helmets.

    There's really no argument that it's nice to have a choice and it's good
    that people realize that the current helmets do not help you in collisions
    with cars?

    My helmet saved me once on a low speed slip on a muddy trail, but I still
    want to shout at the dumbasses on TV who say 'WEAR A helmet' - because
    they're not aware of the limitations of the helmet. Don't you have this
    feeling too when you see those spots?

    The truth is, only a tiny, tiny fraction of the accidents people have on
    the bike are mitigated by wearing a helmet - most are not head-related, and
    most head-related are not slow speed fall-overs.

    How about we agree that if they have a spot, they also talk about what the
    rating of the helmet is, and give examples of what types of falls are
    helped, and include statistics that are accurate?

    The problem is, if they did that, to get the protection they're imagining
    they'd be saying 'wear a motorcycle helmet, a mouthpiece, motorcross armor
    and armored gloves, oh and an air-bag vest'. <g>

    jj

  6. gds said:

    Well the extant helmet thread is getting quite long and the "debate'
    remains quite heated. I've raised a point (in favor of voluntary
    helmet use) a number of times and it has never had a direct response.
    So I thought I'd try it again in a new thread.

    For a moment let us put aside all of the published research - both pro
    & con. My issue is the personally witnessed events where a helmet is
    percieved to have prevented or reduced an injury. aI think that this
    type of data is improtant in individual decsions on helmet use.

    In my own case I have seen many crashes over the years but only two in
    which I am completely convinced that a helmet prevented injury. In one
    instance I was the rider. I came off my bike on a single track and my
    head smashed into a large boulder alongside the trail. The helmet
    worked as designed. The hard shell shattered and the foam inner had a
    large dent. I had no injury to my head whatsoever.

    I witnessed a similar case in which a companion came off his bike and
    his head impacted the curb. This was long ago and the helmet was the
    type with the styrofoam core with a nylon cover. In this instance the
    helmet also performed as designed and the foam broke up absorbing the
    shock of the strike but there was no injury.

    So, my thought is that modern, light weight helmets can, in some cases
    prevent head injuries. And modern light weight helmets now are so light
    and have so much air flow that the "discomfort factor" is very low.
    Thus, I don't see much of a down side.

    All this argument over study methodolgies, compulsion causing less
    cycling, and the idea that there are more head injuries in motor
    vehicles seem to me to be simply changing the subject. Bicycle helemts
    do add some measure of observable benefit. Now the debate of just how
    much that benefit might be is valid. But as I and others have witnessed
    events with such benefit and the citations of helmets causng accidents
    are extremely rare or invole unsupervised childrren (another separate
    issue) it goes against all intuiton that there is NO benefit.

    OK. IF you are going to hit your head in a direct blow, it would be
    better to do it with a helmet than without. This is simple physics.

    However, the broad helmet issue is not that simple.

    First, there must be a greater liklihood of hitting your head while
    wearing a helmet. It may be very small or even negligible, but a
    helmeted head is larger and does weigh something.

    Second, the larger size and possibly composition of the helmet may
    result in increased rotational injury to the brain, which is the most
    damaging mechanism. This is why a glancing blow to the jaw can knockout
    boxers.

    Third, the wearing of helmets has resulted in greater risk taking,
    leading to more crashes and more severe crashes.

    Fourth, it may be that motorists are more cautious around an unhelmeted
    bicycist. This may be due to perceived increased vulnerability. It is
    well known that motorists in general exhibit more caution around
    bicyclists than around other motor vehicles. However, it is unlikely
    this has reduced crashes, and it certainly is not measureable.

    Fifth, clearly many people don't like wearing helmets as evidenced by
    drops in cycling where helmet laws have been enacted.

    Sixth, there are many helmet zealots who try to shame others into their
    pro helmet stance. This is detrimental to bicycling.

    I conclude that wearing a helmet may be useful for the individual given
    that he will engage in aggressive riding or if there is a substantial
    chance of hitting his head. I used to gently promote helmet wearing but
    have since decided that the indivdual can make their own decisions and I
    will not even mention using one. Helmet promotion does have the negative
    effect of making bicycling appear hazardous, and that has a negative
    effect on bicycling. It should certainly not be compulsory.

    Wayne

  7. 2 Jun 2005 10:37:28 -0700,
    <[email hidden]>,
    "gds" <[email hidden]> concluded:
    \szip

    Quoted message said:

    Bicycle helemts
    do add some measure of observable benefit. Now the debate of just how
    much that benefit might be is valid. But as I and others have witnessed
    events with such benefit and the citations of helmets causng accidents
    are extremely rare or invole unsupervised childrren (another separate
    issue) it goes against all intuiton that there is NO benefit.

    Based on empirical evidence, cooked data and sloppy methodology, I'll
    have to believe my helmet has saved me from more broken legs than a
    millipede has legs to break. I'll also attest its ability to chase
    bears and keep me safe from cougar attacks. It's deflected a few more
    bugs than it's trapped and ISTR the odd pebble having struck its
    shell.
    Once I was glad to have it on when my head was trapped between a team
    mate's pedal and the ground. I finished out the game with a cut ear
    rather than a cut ear and scalp wound.
    --
    zk

  8. On Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:53:35 -0500, catzz66 <[email hidden]>

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the world: "I'm doing something
    dangerous."

    Quoted message said:

    This is one of the statements where I disagree. You have no more
    justification for it that I would have in saying all nonwearers are
    foolhardy risk takers.

    Really? So can you name any other non-dangerous activity for which
    you regard the wearing of protective headgear as a "reasonable
    precaution?"

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at CHS, Puget Sound

  9. Rich Clark said:

    People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the world: "I'm doing something
    dangerous." There is no evidence I'm aware of to make such a statement any
    more true of cycling than it is of driving.

    This is one of the statements where I disagree. You have no more
    justification for it that I would have in saying all nonwearers are
    foolhardy risk takers. There are enough of us here who can state that
    we personally did have an accident where helmets helped and that we
    consider them to be a reasonable precaution to take when riding, nothing
    more, nothing less. We'd have a better chance for dialogue without the
    hype.

  10. Just zis Guy said:

    On Thu, 02 Jun 2005 14:53:35 -0500, catzz66 <[email hidden]>

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the world: "I'm doing something
    dangerous."

    Quoted message said:

    This is one of the statements where I disagree. You have no more
    justification for it that I would have in saying all nonwearers are
    foolhardy risk takers.

    Really? So can you name any other non-dangerous activity for which
    you regard the wearing of protective headgear as a "reasonable
    precaution?"

    That really is not the question.

  11. gds said:

    Well the extant helmet thread is getting quite long and the "debate'
    remains quite heated. I've raised a point (in favor of voluntary
    helmet use) a number of times and it has never had a direct response.
    So I thought I'd try it again in a new thread.

    I'm not at all convinced a new thread was necessary. But:...

    Quoted message said:


    For a moment let us put aside all of the published research - both pro
    & con. My issue is the personally witnessed events where a helmet is
    percieved to have prevented or reduced an injury. aI think that this
    type of data is improtant in individual decsions on helmet use.

    In my own case I have seen many crashes over the years but only two in
    which I am completely convinced that a helmet prevented injury. In one
    instance I was the rider. I came off my bike on a single track and my
    head smashed into a large boulder alongside the trail. The helmet
    worked as designed. The hard shell shattered and the foam inner had a
    large dent. I had no injury to my head whatsoever.

    I witnessed a similar case in which a companion came off his bike and
    his head impacted the curb. This was long ago and the helmet was the
    type with the styrofoam core with a nylon cover. In this instance the
    helmet also performed as designed and the foam broke up absorbing the
    shock of the strike but there was no injury.

    Let me tell two crash stories, one short and one long.

    The first is the last time I hit my head falling off a bike. It was
    about 40 years ago. I was delivering newspapers by bike in the winter.
    I slipped on some ice, slid sideways then fell directly backwards.
    The back of my head hit the sidewalk, but not very hard. I remember
    thinking "Ouch. I wonder if I'll have a bump on my head from that?"
    But I didn't.

    If I _had_ worn a helmet? The thickness of the helmet would have
    guaranteed a much harder impact between the helmet and the ground. I
    would have had a less concentrated load on my scalp, but I can't say if
    the acceleration suffered by my brain would have been greater or less -
    I suspect it might have been greater. I'm _sure_ the stress on my neck
    would have been much higher, perhaps seriously higher. All in all, I'm
    glad I didn't wear a helmet. But if I'd worn one? I'm _sure_ you'd
    say it had protected me.

    Second, longer story. Others have read this before:

    My family and a some friends were leaving a restaurant in a nearby big
    city, walking back toward our car. We saw a bus at the side of the
    road just ahead, and we saw a car going the same direction pass the
    bus.

    Just as the car got to the front of the bus, a college kid zoomed
    across in front of the bus, going about 12 mph. The car hit him
    broadside.

    We saw the impact from behind the car and we heard the sickening crash.
    The car screetched to a halt. We saw the kid's body tossed into the
    air, completely above the car. We heard later that he landed on his
    head on the street in front of the car.

    As soon as I saw the impact, I ran back to the restaurant and called
    911 to report the fatality, then I ran back to reluctantly view the
    carnage. But there was no carnage, no fatality. The car's grill was
    destroyed, the hood smashed, the windshield destroyed, but the kid was
    sitting on a wall at the sidewalk. He'd walked their on his own power.

    An off-duty EMT who happened to pass by was holding his neck to
    immobilize it. Cops and ambulance arrived, and they strapped him to a
    board to take him to the ER. But except for a scratch on his head from
    the windshield wiper (Head injury!!!!) he was perfectly fine. We
    called the next day, and he was back in classes.

    If he'd been wearing a helmet, EVERYBODY would have said the helmet not
    only helped, but it saved his life. It was obvious from the damage to
    the car, the height to which he was thrown, the subsequent landing on
    his head...

    But he had no helmet.

    What's weirder, nobody even mentioned the lack of a helmet. Not the
    EMT, the cops, the ambulance guys - nobody. Why? Because the kid
    wasn't on a bike. Like the great majority of non-motorist traffic
    victims, he was on foot. He'd jogged across in front of that bus.

    When you see a bike incident where you _know_ a helmet helped, think
    about this example. Think about what you _really_ know.

    Quoted message said:

    So, my thought is that modern, light weight helmets can, in some cases
    prevent head injuries. And modern light weight helmets now are so light
    and have so much air flow that the "discomfort factor" is very low.
    Thus, I don't see much of a down side.

    I'll agree they _can_ help. And although the discomfort varies greatly
    from person to person and situation to situation, they're certainly not
    uncomfortable when you're not exerting yourself in the heat. So I
    don't see much downside either... meaning, of course, I don't see why
    people don't wear them all the time!

    Oddly, it's a rare helmet promoter who uses that idea. Most people
    think they should be used _only_ while riding a bike. I think they
    have the mistaken idea that cycling is an unusual source of serious
    head injuries. I think they got that idea from the helmet salesmen.

    Of course, it's false. Cycling is no worse for serious head injuries
    than many other activities for which helmets are _never_ proposed.

    Quoted message said:

    All this argument over study methodolgies, compulsion causing less
    cycling, and the idea that there are more head injuries in motor
    vehicles seem to me to be simply changing the subject.

    Not at all! That is, not if what you're really worried about is head
    injuries. If you're simply bent on making cycling look bad, whether or
    not it causes such injuries, then I suppose concentrating only on
    cycling makes sense. But if two different activities both cause, say,
    0.5 serious head injuries per million hours activity, why promote a
    helmet for one, but not the other?

    (BTW, that number isn't the correct one; my data on that is in my other
    office. I'll double check it later, if you like.)

    Quoted message said:

    Bicycle helemts
    do add some measure of observable benefit. Now the debate of just how
    much that benefit might be is valid.

    Sorry, you are confidently excluding the possibility that they provide
    no measurable benefit. You must understand that some studies have
    found exactly that: no measurable benefit.

    Quoted message said:

    But as I and others have witnessed
    events with such benefit and the citations of helmets causng accidents
    are extremely rare or invole unsupervised childrren (another separate
    issue) it goes against all intuiton that there is NO benefit.

    Intuition ain't science! If you want to judge things based on
    intuition, give up penicillin for your next infection; go with Bach
    Flower Remedies instead. (Google it.)

    I prefer science.

    - Frank Krygowski

  12. Quoted message said:


    If I _had_ worn a helmet? The thickness of the helmet would have
    guaranteed a much harder impact between the helmet and the ground.

    Please look up the mening of "guarantee" Seriously, from the info given
    the concept of gurantee does not apply.

    I

    Quoted message said:

    would have had a less concentrated load on my scalp, but I can't say if
    the acceleration suffered by my brain would have been greater or less -
    I suspect it might have been greater. I'm _sure_ the stress on my neck
    would have been much higher, perhaps seriously higher. All in all, I'm
    glad I didn't wear a helmet.

    You are pretty sure it wouldn't help to have a helmet based on no real
    relevant information to reach that conclusion. I'm not arguing that a
    helemt would surely have been bettr but i don't see how you could
    possible reach the conclusion that "I'm sure the stress..." etc.

    Quoted message said:


    Second, longer story. Others have read this before:

    Quoted message said:

    So, my thought is that modern, light weight helmets can, in some cases
    prevent head injuries. And modern light weight helmets now are so light
    and have so much air flow that the "discomfort factor" is very low.
    Thus, I don't see much of a down side.

    I'll agree they _can_ help. And although the discomfort varies greatly
    from person to person and situation to situation, they're certainly not
    uncomfortable when you're not exerting yourself in the heat. So I
    don't see much downside either... meaning, of course, I don't see why
    people don't wear them all the time!

    And that is why good studies need to be done.

    Quoted message said:

    Oddly, it's a rare helmet promoter who uses that idea. Most people
    think they should be used _only_ while riding a bike. I think they
    have the mistaken idea that cycling is an unusual source of serious
    head injuries. I think they got that idea from the helmet salesmen.

    Of course, it's false. Cycling is no worse for serious head injuries
    than many other activities for which helmets are _never_ proposed.

    Quoted message said:

    All this argument over study methodolgies, compulsion causing less
    cycling, and the idea that there are more head injuries in motor
    vehicles seem to me to be simply changing the subject.

    Not at all! That is, not if what you're really worried about is head
    injuries. If you're simply bent on making cycling look bad, whether or
    not it causes such injuries, then I suppose concentrating only on
    cycling makes sense. But if two different activities both cause, say,
    0.5 serious head injuries per million hours activity, why promote a
    helmet for one, but not the other

    Look you will not pass any logic class this way. Helemets are either
    worthwhile while cycling or not. Making the arguemnt about relative
    risk is simply not the issue. You may correct. It may well be that
    getting out of bed is more dangerous than cycling. But that is a
    separate argument.

    Quoted message said:

    (BTW, that number isn't the correct one; my data on that is in my other
    office. I'll double check it later, if you like.)

    Sorry, you are confidently excluding the possibility that they provide
    no measurable benefit. You must understand that some studies have
    found exactly that: no measurable benefit.

    Agreed. Measurable benefit is my prejudice. But I'm also arguing for a
    gwell designed study to settle the question-not dependnce on flawed
    studies on either side of the question

    Quoted message said:


    Quoted message said:

    But as I and others have witnessed
    events with such benefit and the citations of helmets causng accidents
    are extremely rare or invole unsupervised childrren (another separate
    issue) it goes against all intuiton that there is NO benefit.

    Intuition ain't science! If you want to judge things based on
    intuition, give up penicillin for your next infection; go with Bach
    Flower Remedies instead. (Google it.)

    I prefer science.

    Of course, But intuition often leads to good science. Your example is
    perfect. Fleming witnessed the effects of penicillin (at that point
    only intuition!!) and then designed studies that scientifically
    demonstrated the effect.

  13. gds said:
    Quoted message said:

    If I _had_ worn a helmet? The thickness of the helmet would have
    guaranteed a much harder impact between the helmet and the ground.

    Please look up the mening of "guarantee" Seriously, from the info given
    the concept of gurantee does not apply.

    I think it's pretty much guaranteed that the impact between the helmet and
    ground would be zero if it were not present 🙂

    --
    Benjamin Lewis

    Although the moon is smaller than the earth, it is farther away.

  14. Rich Clark said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Rich Clark wrote:
    > People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the world: "I'm doing something
    > dangerous." There is no evidence I'm aware of to make such a statement
    > any more true of cycling than it is of driving.
    >
    >

    Quoted message said:

    catzz66 replied:
    This is one of the statements where I disagree.

    Rich Clark wrote:
    That was two statements. Which one are you disagreeing with?

    Quoted message said:


    Sorry, it was this one: People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the
    world: "I'm doing something dangerous."

  15. Benjamin Lewis said:

    I think it's pretty much guaranteed that the impact between the helmet and
    ground would be zero if it were not present 🙂


    So, do you argue that all helmets should wear heads?

  16. gds said:
    Quoted message said:

    Sorry, but your proposed mechanism for overcoming the deficiencies in
    the science is markedly worse than the imperfect science that we
    currently have. If you are honest with yourself you will admit this.

    Quoted message said:

    Once again- I am only arguing for using the anecdotes for constructing
    a hypothesis. How can I make it more clear?

    Sorry, but I do not accept this point. You say you are trying to
    construct a null hypothesis (though it is not clear to me how this can
    be done by reference to anecdote); as far as I can see the null
    hypothesis can be tested to a certain degree using time-series data,
    but maybe you are not explaining it in a way I can understand.

    What you are saying appears to me to be at odds with what you posted
    at the head of the thread. That was a garden variety "helmet saved my
    life" anecdote, invalid for all the usual reasons.

    What you were saying in that post was that your observation of two
    crashes led you to conclude that helmets are beneficial. But the
    problem here is that even if you did have the corollary data of
    identical crashes where the Hemet was absent, it still fails to
    address the vexed issue of whether the presence of the helmet affects
    the probability of crashing in the first place. The probability of
    injury given crash is only half the story; what matters is the
    probability of injury given ride.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    To me the studies are flawed so the calculation prove little or
    nothing.


    You have better data? No.


    No. That's why we need to get it

    But it can't be done.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > o sends the message that cycling is dangerous, which it is not

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    We have different perceptions on this. I don't hink it sends that
    message at all.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    OK, so do you wear one when walking on roads with motor traffic? Or
    when travelling in the car? Or around the house? These activities
    have comparable risks of head injury. By wearing a helmet for only
    one of them, we give the impression that it is uniquely dangerous -
    which it isn't.

    Quoted message said:

    I guess my oint is that since the studies are flawed we have no idea
    what the relative risk might be.

    No, we know reasonably accurately what the relative risk might be,
    Frank has that data from actuarial estimates. It's efficacy
    (specifically the efficacy/severity curve) which is in dispute.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    you need to ask yourself what standard you are setting for
    a "proper" study.

    Quoted message said:

    Pretty high, because absent that we have this debate without valid
    data. It can't go very far- at least to my mind.

    Your expectations cannot be matched without a type of data which will
    never become available due to ethical and practical considerations.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    I think we have a pretty good idea by now, we have after all around
    thirty years of data to go on.

    Quoted message said:

    But flawed data!!

    Data can't be flawed, only incomplete. Interpretations of incomplete
    data can be flawed and often are.

    Quoted message said:

    let's stop arguing from flawed data.

    As far as I can tell the only kind of evidence we will ever have will
    come from incomplete data sets.

    Quoted message said:

    And let's stop misrepresenting the arguments of others. For example how
    often in your post have you accused me of reverting to anecdotal
    evidence over scientific data when in fact I have clearly stated that I
    am proposing the anecdotal evidence only as way to construct a null
    hypothesis. Without such a null hypothesis how could you construct a
    valid statistacal study?

    Like I say, the way you propose it makes no sense to me. You
    described two cases where you believe a helmet helped (though in one
    of them the helmet failed, making your claim problematic); how does
    that construct a null hypothesis? It misses out one half of the
    equation, the probability of crash given ride.

    Quoted message said:

    As to the issue of only a double blind study with random assignment
    would "prove" the question. I'll argue against that. There is no reason
    why a prospective study that uses multi variate matching could not
    address the question quite well. It's when you try to do data mining on
    extant data sets that you have real problems with the matching.

    How would you recruit people for a prospective trial? Bear in mind
    that for it to be statistically valid you would have to assign them
    randomly to helmet wearing and non-wearing (how will you persuade the
    wearers in the on-wearing group to ride without?), and the two groups
    would have to be large enough to experience a significant number of
    serious injuries; that is going to nee large groups because these
    injuries are rare. How many injuries do we need for significance?
    I'd say not less than a hundred. That would require study groups of
    between 5% and 10% of the entire UK cyclist population, just to get to
    a level of severity sufficient for hospital admission, and most of
    those are released after observation with no further treatment. If
    you wanted to shoot for 100 fatalities each group would have to be
    larger than the entire UK cyclist population.

    I think you are asking for a type of study that cannot, practically,
    be done. The nearest we have was halfway there, when countries like
    NZ arbitrarily assign essentially their entire cyclist population to
    one of the two possible groups (wearers). But these are the studies
    you don't appear to like!

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at CHS, Puget Sound

  17. On Thu, 02 Jun 2005 15:02:27 -0500, catzz66 <[email hidden]>

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    >People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the world: "I'm doing something
    >dangerous."

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    This is one of the statements where I disagree. You have no more
    justification for it that I would have in saying all nonwearers are
    foolhardy risk takers.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Really? So can you name any other non-dangerous activity for which
    you regard the wearing of protective headgear as a "reasonable
    precaution?"

    Quoted message said:

    That really is not the question.

    You think not? I venture to disagree.

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at CHS, Puget Sound

  18. "catzz66" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Sorry, it was this one: People wearing helmets are proclaiming to the
    world: "I'm doing something dangerous."

    Are you suggesting that one would wear a helmet while engaging in a "safe"
    activity"? That people who see someone wearing a helmet think, "oh, that
    must be safe to do?"

    Do you think that the connection between the marketing concept phraseology
    "bike safety" and the marketing category "bike helmet" is a coincidence?

    Do you really believe the perception "helmet-wearing=dangerous activity" is
    not pervasive in the general populace?

    RichC

  19. gds said:
    Benjamin Lewis said:

    I think it's pretty much guaranteed that the impact between the helmet
    and ground would be zero if it were not present 🙂


    So, do you argue that all helmets should wear heads?

    On the contrary; helmets are less likely to get damaged when left sitting
    in the box.

    --
    Benjamin Lewis

    Although the moon is smaller than the earth, it is farther away.

  20. gds said:
    Quoted message said:

    But if two different activities both cause, say,
    0.5 serious head injuries per million hours activity, why promote a
    helmet for one, but not the other

    Quoted message said:

    Look you will not pass any logic class this way. Helemets are either
    worthwhile while cycling or not.

    Sorry, but you are wrong here. The risk of serious head injury (%HI
    and HI/hour) are comparable for walking on city streets and for
    cycling. There is no logically consistent argument for cycle helmets
    which does not apply equally well to pedestrian helmets - and the
    Japanese have even tried it! Guess what? When all the little kids
    were made to wear pedestrian helmets, the effect on the head injury
    rate was nil.

    There is no correlation between helmet use and serious injury in
    either cyclists or pedestrians. And neither activity is particularly
    dangerous anyway. So why not just leave everyone to make their own
    choice?

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Intuition ain't science! If you want to judge things based on
    intuition, give up penicillin for your next infection; go with Bach
    Flower Remedies instead. (Google it.)

    Quoted message said:

    Of course, But intuition often leads to good science. Your example is
    perfect. Fleming witnessed the effects of penicillin (at that point
    only intuition!!) and then designed studies that scientifically
    demonstrated the effect.

    Sure. The problem is that half the studies are constructed in such a
    way as to ensure they back the intuition, and the ones which are based
    on data compiled by disinterested third parties show no benefit ;-)

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at CHS, Puget Sound

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