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Hasty generalizations of the day

Started by Kerry Nikolaise · · Last activity · 20 posts · 2,112 views

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Road Cycling
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3 October 2003
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6 October 2003
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Kerry Nikolaise
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  1. Elite or club cyclists are less likely to wave to other cyclists, especially if those waving are
    Freds (i.e., any cyclist whose attire/bike is substandard to theirs);

    The majority of people talking on cell phones are females;

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    The explosion of "greenways" and associated multi-use paths, in a multitude of metropolitan areas,
    will again bring rise to mandatory sidepath laws; and

    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    Kerry "the hasty generalizer" Nikolaisen

  2. Kerry Nikolaisen said:

    Elite or club cyclists are less likely to wave to other cyclists, especially if those waving are
    Freds (i.e., any cyclist whose attire/bike is substandard to theirs);

    Clearly true. I first noticed this when I started riding a mountain bike from time to time. Roadies
    I encoutered stopped waving.

    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    That is a common belief, and since it flies in the face of what people would expect, it is accepted
    as true. But I really don't think so. They may be more careless, as a group, than others, but young
    men are more likely to be overtly hostile, which is more dangerous to riders. Even with
    carelessness, I think the very old are more careless, even when they are trying to pay attention,
    than your average teenage girl talking on the phone.

    Quoted message said:

    The explosion of "greenways" and associated multi-use paths, in a multitude of metropolitan areas,
    will again bring rise to mandatory sidepath laws; and

    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    These last two show you have a clear grasp of the obvious.

    --

    David L. Johnson

    __o | We have a record of conquest, colonization and expansion _`\(,_ | unequalled by any people
    in the Nineteenth Century. We are not (_)/ (_) | to be curbed now. --Henry Cabot Lodge, 1895

  3. In article <[email hidden]>, "Kerry Nikolaisen"

    Quoted message said:

    Elite or club cyclists are less likely to wave to other cyclists, especially if those waving are
    Freds (i.e., any cyclist whose attire/bike is substandard to theirs);

    They're not rude, they're anaerobic.

    Quoted message said:

    The majority of people talking on cell phones are females;

    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    Quoted message said:

    The explosion of "greenways" and associated multi-use paths, in a multitude of metropolitan areas,
    will again bring rise to mandatory sidepath laws; and

    Could be, but I hope not.

    Have I ever told y'all about the "bike routes" on my way to work?

    I ride a 12 km commute that mainly runs along an extremely busy 2-lane road, a major suburban route
    for car traffic at various points. (For those of you who know Vancouver: St. John's Street in Port
    Moody, up Clarke Road, along North Road, along Columbia to New West; despite the four name changes,
    that's one continuous street.)

    In Port Moody, the street that I live on is a designated "bike route", despite stop signs every two
    blocks aaand...a one-block hump in the road that consists of something around 100' of elevation gain
    and fall in that length (yeah, it's really steep). Note that one block away on St. John's, there is
    very little elevation change at this point.

    Fun section number two is the beautiful-but-useless bike path underneath the new Skytrain
    (elevated light rail) line. Skytrain is great. The path, on the other hand, terminates suddenly in
    a place where you have to ride across a private parking lot, then enter an insanely narrow
    designated truck route. In other words, it's not usable for commuters. Nice ride along the water
    on the bike path, though.

    I don't take any of these "bike routes". Instead, I risk the lesser hazards of crawling up Clark
    Road hill and riding with traffic on Columbia. The Columbia street section has become much easier
    now that I'm faster; doing 40-50 km/h along that section means I basically don't hold up traffic. I
    think some of the drivers are a little shocked when they see a cyclist going that quick.

    Quoted message said:

    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    Kerry "the hasty generalizer" Nikolaisen

    --
    Ryan Cousineau, [email hidden] sfu.ca~rcousine President, Fabrizio Mazzoleni Fan Club

  4. David L. Johnson said:
    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    That is a common belief, and since it flies in the face of what people would expect, it is accepted
    as true. But I really don't think so. They may be more careless, as a group, than others, but young
    men are more likely to be overtly hostile, which is more dangerous to riders.

    An NYC group, Right of Way found that in NYC pedestrian and cyclist fatalities that men were more
    often involeved than women

    For the 820 fatalities in which the identity of the driver was established, 747, or 91 percent,
    of the drivers were men; 73 (9 percent) were women. In contrast, women account for an estimated
    25 percent of vehicle-miles driven on New York City streets, excluding 14 KILLED BY AUTOMOBILE
    highways, indicating that women are under-represented as killerdrivers by a factor of 2 to 3,
    while men are correspondingly overrepresented.

    Source: rightofway.orgkba.html

    --
    Steven O'Neill [email hidden] www.bridgetolls.org

  5. In article <[email hidden]>, [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    Elite or club cyclists are less likely to wave to other cyclists, especially if those waving are
    Freds (i.e., any cyclist whose attire/bike is substandard to theirs);

    The majority of people talking on cell phones are females;

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    The explosion of "greenways" and associated multi-use paths, in a multitude of metropolitan areas,
    will again bring rise to mandatory sidepath laws; and

    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    Kerry "the hasty generalizer" Nikolaisen

    Now how are you going to fit all that on a bumper sticker?
    --
    _________________________
    Chris Phillipo - Cape Breton, Nova Scotia ramsays-online.comramsays-online.com

  6. "Kerry Nikolaisen" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:Zoffb.3069

    You should have written "hasty and only partially true generalizations of the day."

    Quoted message said:

    Elite or club cyclists are less likely to wave to other cyclists,


    especially

    Quoted message said:

    if those waving are Freds (i.e., any cyclist whose attire/bike is substandard to theirs);

    Not here in Texas. Almost everybody waves. In small towns, everyone waves, even if they are both
    driving trucks.

    Quoted message said:

    The majority of people talking on cell phones are females;

    Not from what I have seen. I see both male and female cell phone talkers all of the time.

    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    This one just isn't true. If they were, then their insurance rates would be the highest. Holding
    everything else equal (rate zone, number of tickets, number of accidents, type of vehicle,
    primary driver), unmarried males under the age of 21 are the highest risk group and pay the
    highest premiums.

    Quoted message said:

    The explosion of "greenways" and associated multi-use paths, in a


    multitude

    Quoted message said:

    of metropolitan areas, will again bring rise to mandatory sidepath laws;


    and

    Unfortunately, I believe this to be true....

    Quoted message said:


    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    We can only hope! Hah!

    -Buck

  7. In article <[email hidden]>, "Buck" <s c h w i n n _ f o r _ s a l e @ h
    o t m a i l . c o m> says...

    ...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    This one just isn't true. If they were, then their insurance rates would be the highest. Holding
    everything else equal (rate zone, number of tickets, number of accidents, type of vehicle, primary
    driver), unmarried males under the age of 21 are the highest risk group and pay the highest
    premiums.

    Being the highest risk from an insurance standpoint doesn't make them the most reckless. IMO, the
    major problem with teen boys is their aggressiveness, while the girls are more careless. Apparently
    aggressiveness causes more crashes than carelessness.

    --
    Dave Kerber Fight spam: remove the ns_ from the return address before replying!

    REAL programmers write self-modifying code.

  8. "David Kerber" <ns_dkerber@ns_ids.net> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Being the highest risk from an insurance standpoint doesn't make them the most reckless. IMO, the
    major problem with teen boys is their aggressiveness, while the girls are more careless.
    Apparently aggressiveness causes more crashes than carelessness.

    You can play around with semantics all you want, but the facts are that unmarried males under the
    age of 21 have the greatest number of accidents.

    Here's the breakdown by age group and gender for unintentional injuries in the U.S. for the
    year 2000:

    For Males: Rank <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ All Ages

    1 Unintentional Suffocation 302 Unintentional Drowning 316 Unintentional MV Traffic 399
    Unintentional MV Traffic 558 Unintentional MV Traffic 7,320 Unintentional MV Traffic 4,983
    Unintentional MV Traffic 4,797 Unintentional MV Traffic 3,652 Unintentional MV Traffic 2,186
    Unintentional Fall 4,722 Unintentional MV Traffic 28,352

    Rank <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ All Ages

    1 Unintentional Suffocation 224 Unintentional MV Traffic 249 Unintentional MV Traffic 332
    Unintentional MV Traffic 358 Unintentional MV Traffic 3,003 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,733
    Unintentional MV Traffic 1,960 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,558 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,186
    Unintentional Fall 5,551 Unintentional MV Traffic 13,642

    Note that for almost every age group where motor vehicle accidents are the number one cause of
    injury, males have over twice as many accidents as females. Source:
    webapp.cdc.govbroker.exe

    Also note that one definition of reckless is "Indifferent to or disregardful of consequences."
    Source: www.dictionary.com

    If that doesn't describe young male driving habits (including the ones I had as a youngster), then I
    can't think of what does. Perhaps the girls fall under the "indifferent" part, but males are truely
    "disregardful."

    -Buck

  9. "Buck" <s c h w i n n _ f o r _ s a l e @ h o t m a i l . c o m> wrote in message news:wxjfb.49743

    Sorry about the formatting problem.... Let me try to fix it.

    Quoted message said:

    Here's the breakdown by age group and gender for unintentional injuries in the U.S. for the
    year 2000:

    For Males:


    Ages Number One Cause of Injury Number per 1,000 <1 Unintentional Suffocation 302 1-4 Unintentional
    Drowning 316 5-9 Unintentional MV Traffic 399 10-14 Unintentional MV Traffic 558 15-24 Unintentional
    MV Traffic 7,320 25-34 Unintentional MV Traffic 4,983 35-44 Unintentional MV Traffic 4,797 45-54
    Unintentional MV Traffic 3,652 55-64 Unintentional MV Traffic 2,186 65+ Unintentional Fall 4,722 All
    Unintentional MV Traffic 28,352

    For Females: Ages Number One Cause of Injury Number per 1,000 <1 Unintentional Suffocation 224 1-4
    Unintentional MV Traffic 249 5-9 Unintentional MV Traffic 332 10-14 Unintentional MV Traffic 358
    15-24 Unintentional MV Traffic 3,003 25-34 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,733 35-44 Unintentional MV
    Traffic 1,960 45-54 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,558 55-64 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,186 65+
    Unintentional Fall 5,551 All Unintentional MV Traffic 13,642

  10. In article <[email hidden]>, "Buck" <s c h w i n n _ f o r _ s a l e @ h
    o t m a i l . c o m> says...

    Quoted message said:

    "David Kerber" <ns_dkerber@ns_ids.net> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Being the highest risk from an insurance standpoint doesn't make them the most reckless. IMO,
    the major problem with teen boys is their aggressiveness, while the girls are more careless.
    Apparently aggressiveness causes more crashes than carelessness.

    You can play around with semantics all you want, but the facts are that unmarried males under the
    age of 21 have the greatest number of accidents.

    You're correct that I am splitting hairs here, though your stats have significantly deflated my
    confidence in my core thesis. I didn't realize there was that much of a difference in the *number*
    of injury-producing accidents between teenage boys and girls. I knew the number of deaths and cost
    of accidents was significantly higher for boys, but assumed (and you know what that does ;-P) that
    it was caused more by the severity of the accidents than the number.

    That said, I still think there's a difference in style between girls' poor driving and boys' poor
    driving. I think girls tend to simply not pay as much attention to their driving, getting into
    accidents because they were distracted by socializing with others in the car, looking around, etc.
    My wife simply doesn't look far enough down the road to be able to anticipate actions which might
    be required to avoid problems. IMO (based on being a teenage boy at one time), boys' driving
    problems tend to be caused more by an aggressive driving style, speeding, swerving around other
    cars and the like.

    These are gross generalizations of course, with lots of overlap between the groups, so there will be
    plenty of counter-examples on both sides.

    Quoted message said:


    Here's the breakdown by age group and gender for unintentional injuries in the U.S. for the
    year 2000:

    For Males: Rank <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ All Ages

    1 Unintentional Suffocation 302 Unintentional Drowning 316 Unintentional MV Traffic 399
    Unintentional MV Traffic 558 Unintentional MV Traffic 7,320 Unintentional MV Traffic 4,983
    Unintentional MV Traffic 4,797 Unintentional MV Traffic 3,652 Unintentional MV Traffic
    2,186 Unintentional Fall 4,722 Unintentional MV Traffic 28,352

    Rank <1 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ All Ages

    1 Unintentional Suffocation 224 Unintentional MV Traffic 249 Unintentional MV Traffic 332
    Unintentional MV Traffic 358 Unintentional MV Traffic 3,003 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,733
    Unintentional MV Traffic 1,960 Unintentional MV Traffic 1,558 Unintentional MV Traffic
    1,186 Unintentional Fall 5,551 Unintentional MV Traffic 13,642

    Note that for almost every age group where motor vehicle accidents are the number one cause of
    injury, males have over twice as many accidents as females. Source:
    webapp.cdc.govbroker.exe

    Also note that one definition of reckless is "Indifferent to or disregardful of consequences."
    Source: www.dictionary.com

    If that doesn't describe young male driving habits (including the ones I had as a youngster), then
    I can't think of what does. Perhaps the girls fall under the "indifferent" part, but males are
    truely "disregardful."

    --
    Dave Kerber Fight spam: remove the ns_ from the return address before replying!

    REAL programmers write self-modifying code.

  11. In article <[email hidden]>, "Buck" <s c h w i n n _ f o r _ s a l e @ h
    o t m a i l . c o m> says...

    Quoted message said:

    "David Kerber" <ns_dkerber@ns_ids.net> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Being the highest risk from an insurance standpoint doesn't make them the most reckless. IMO,
    the major problem with teen boys is their aggressiveness, while the girls are more careless.
    Apparently aggressiveness causes more crashes than carelessness.

    You can play around with semantics all you want, but the facts are that unmarried males under the
    age of 21 have the greatest number of accidents.

    Here's the breakdown by age group and gender for unintentional injuries in the U.S. for the
    year 2000:

    Hey how do you know they didn't mean to do it!
    --
    _________________________
    Chris Phillipo - Cape Breton, Nova Scotia ramsays-online.comramsays-online.com

  12. "David Kerber" <ns_dkerber@ns_ids.net> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I still think there's a difference in style between girls' poor driving and boys' poor driving. I
    think girls tend to simply not pay as much attention to their driving, getting into accidents
    because they were distracted by socializing with others in the car, looking around, etc. My wife
    simply doesn't look far enough down the road to be able to anticipate actions which might be
    required to avoid problems. IMO (based on being a teenage boy at one time), boys' driving problems
    tend to be caused more by an aggressive driving style, speeding, swerving around other cars and
    the like.

    I'm in complete agreement with you on this part. Boys are probably more reckless and girls more
    inattentive, but I don't have any stats to prove anything, so it's just opinion based on observance.

    But both boys and girls are distracted by passengers at similar rates. Here's an interesting snippet
    for you courtesy of hwysafety.orgteen passengers.pdf

    "Four recent North American studies have quantified the crash risk associated with teenage drivers

    transporting teenage passengers (Aldridge et al., 1999; Chen et al., 2000; Doherty et al., 1998;
    Preusser et

    al., 1998). Collectively, findings from these studies indicate that the presence of
    passengers strongly

    increases crash risk for teenage drivers; the more passengers the greater the risk. For
    example, in one

    study the presence of one passenger almost doubled the fatal crash risk compared with driving alone.

    With two or more passengers, the fatal crash risk was five times as high as driving alone
    (Doherty et al.,

    1998). Results were similar for male and female teenage drivers. There is excess risk for
    young drivers

    with passengers both day and night. For older drivers, on the other hand, passengers either
    have no effect

    on crash risk or a beneficial effect, with drivers less likely to crash if there are passengers in
    the vehicle.

    Part of the increased injury risk with passengers present could be because higher vehicle

    occupancy by itself increases the opportunity for injury in a crash. However, there is
    increased risk for

    young drivers with passengers present in studies that are based on involvement in crashes
    (Doherty et al.,

    1999) or deaths to drivers per million trips (Chen et al., 2000), where the influence of
    high vehicle

    occupancy on the likelihood of injury is not a factor."

    Perhaps my kids shouldn't get their licenses until AFTER they make it through this critical period.
    Another study showed that teenage drivers had higher accident rates than adult drivers (30+) who had
    the same amount of experience. I'd worry about what confounding factors may be affecting their
    results. WHY didn't these drivers get their licenses until their thirties? What kinds of people are
    these? They are certainly outside the statistical norm. This may be skewing the results of the
    study, but it is interesting food for thought. I wonder if they spent those years as cyclists...

    -Buck

  13. [snip]

    Quoted message said:

    For Females: Ages Number One Cause of Injury Number per 1,000

    [snip]

    Quoted message said:

    65+ Unintentional Fall 5,551 All Unintentional MV Traffic 13,642

    Ok...I don't quite see this...do females average five injurious falls per year once they
    get over 65?

    Peter

  14. David Kerber ns_dkerber@ns_ids.net said:

    Being the highest risk from an insurance standpoint doesn't make them the most reckless. IMO, the
    major problem with teen boys is their aggressiveness, while the girls are more careless. Apparently
    aggressiveness causes more crashes than carelessness.

    80% of the tailgaters I encounter, and ONE HUNDRED percent of the people who cross a double yellow
    to pass, or pass on a hill, are young females (late teens or early twenties).

    I'm talking tailgating at 70-75mph on the freeway, and I'm in the slow lane, and they could pass but
    they prefer to fly in formation. Passing on hills and curves on two-lane country roads clearly
    marked with double yellow lines and triangular "Do Not Pass" signs.

    Fearless, agressive, and clueless.

  15. "Peter Gardner" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:ude.dmu.maw-

    Quoted message said:

    [snip]

    Quoted message said:

    For Females: Ages Number One Cause of Injury Number per 1,000

    [snip]

    Quoted message said:

    65+ Unintentional Fall 5,551 All Unintentional MV Traffic 13,642

    Ok...I don't quite see this...do females average five injurious falls per year once they get
    over 65?

    Whoops, my mistake. One of the charts had it standardized per 1,000, but this one is 5,551 falls out
    of 15,936 unintentional injury deaths.

    -Buck

  16. In article <[email hidden]>, "Buck" <s c h w i n n _ f o r _ s a l e @ h
    o t m a i l . c o m> says...

    ...

    Quoted message said:

    young drivers with passengers present in studies that are based on involvement in crashes
    (Doherty et al.,

    1998) or deaths to drivers per million trips (Chen et al., 2000), where the influence of high
    vehicle

    occupancy on the likelihood of injury is not a factor."

    Perhaps my kids shouldn't get their licenses until AFTER they make it through this critical
    period. Another study showed that teenage drivers had

    Rhode Island has a rule that drivers can't carry passengers (other than family) until they've had a
    clean record for a certain amount of time after getting their license. IIRC, that time is 1 year,
    but I'm not sure about that. The rule might say they can't carry other kids, rather than nobody
    other than family, but there is certainly a restriction of some kind on newly licensed drivers
    carrying passengers.

    Quoted message said:

    higher accident rates than adult drivers (30+) who had the same amount of experience. I'd worry
    about what confounding factors may be affecting their results. WHY didn't these drivers get their
    licenses until their thirties? What kinds of people are these? They are certainly outside the
    statistical norm. This may be skewing the results of the study, but it is interesting food for
    thought. I wonder if they spent those years as cyclists...

    Probably mostly people who lived in the urban core of cities, and never needed personal
    transportation (used the bus or a taxi), or immigrants who walked where they needed to go until they
    had enough money to afford driving. My wife didn't get her license until her 20's; she took the bus
    or walked everywhere she needed to go.

    --
    Dave Kerber Fight spam: remove the ns_ from the return address before replying!

    REAL programmers write self-modifying code.

  17. "Kerry Nikolaisen" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:Zoffb.3069

    Quoted message said:


    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    Let's hope so -- but there's a lot of century left.

  18. In article <[email hidden]>, [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    "Kerry Nikolaisen" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:Zoffb.3069

    Quoted message said:


    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    Let's hope so -- but there's a lot of century left.

    There's one headline I want to see before the go, "Segway owner arrested for stealing electricity
    from local storefront". Thier own PR videos show people plugging these things in anywhere they
    happen to stop as if electricity is free for anyone to take. I think Californians only have to take
    a look at their monthly bill to know it is not.

    --
    _________________________
    Chris Phillipo - Cape Breton, Nova Scotia ramsays-online.comramsays-online.com

  19. "Kerry Nikolaisen" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    If you happened to catch the recent "Ig Noble" awards, you might have spotted the research of
    John Trinkaus.

    improbable.comtrinkaus0.html

    Trinkaus investigated a whole slew of amusing and quirky everday events.

    improbable.comtrinkaus0.html

    Among his conclusions (all based on observation of a large number of events) is the fact that (at
    least at the times and places he observed) women in vans seem to be about the worst drivers on the
    road in a whole variety of categories: Stopping at stop signs, left-turning, not blocking
    intersections, illegally parking in fire zones, etc.

    improbable.comtrinkaus10.html

    Take it for what it's worth!

    --Brent bhugh [at] mwsc.edu

  20. Kerry Nikolaisen said:

    Elite or club cyclists are less likely to wave to other cyclists, especially if those waving are
    Freds (i.e., any cyclist whose attire/bike is substandard to theirs);

    My experience has been that elite club cyclists will never fail to wave when removing my hand from
    the bar or modifying my grip at all would be certain death.

    Quoted message said:

    The majority of people talking on cell phones are females;

    True, although the majority of cell-phone talkers who are also writing notes while driving are male.

    Quoted message said:

    Young female drivers are the most reckless drivers on the road;

    Maybe. Sometimes it does seem evident. However, young males pay the highest insurance rates,
    regardless of their individual records.

    Quoted message said:

    The explosion of "greenways" and associated multi-use paths, in a multitude of metropolitan areas,
    will again bring rise to mandatory sidepath laws; and

    That would be terrible.

    Quoted message said:

    The Segway will be considered one of the biggests "flops" of the 21st century.

    There's a lot of 21st century left to go. Something bigger will come along.

    Quoted message said:

    Kerry "the hasty generalizer" Nikolaisen


    --
    Rick Onanian

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