Grater prediction thread

slovakguy said:

pretty impressive preliminary line-up for the vuelta. sure, many are showing their names and will withdraw before they cook their chances for the worlds, but still....

going with the green bullet for the top step, evans (yes, i'm certifiable.) to place, and s. sanchez for bronze.

Evans will withdraw.

Andrija said:

Evans will withdraw.

i would usually agree, but his year has been so off that i think he'll give it a go for a result having used the tour for a "warm-up." and honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if fifty percent of the non-spanish riders bagged it after two weeks or less.

slovakguy said:

i would usually agree, but his year has been so off that i think he'll give it a go for a result having used the tour for a "warm-up." and honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if fifty percent of the non-spanish riders bagged it after two weeks or less.

I think I read somewhere he'll ride Vuelta with Worlds in his mind.

Andrija said:

I think I read somewhere he'll ride Vuelta with Worlds in his mind.

He probably will but i'm sure if he's right up there in the clasification he'll go for the win, especialy after a disapointing tour de france. That and he might not be team leader next year

Scotttri said:

He probably will but i'm sure if he's right up there in the clasification he'll go for the win, especialy after a disapointing tour de france. That and he might not be team leader next year

We're little bit hijackin' Grater's thread, but I have to answer this.
This is very interesting point. He (Evans) didn't bother riding for podium or GC in the Tour when he realised he can't win. I wonder if he'll go for less than a victory in Vuelta, considering his measure is the Tour victory. I really doubt he can hold on on three successive mountain top finishes in Spain (in Spanish race), so what will make him go all the way? Contract, leadership and credibility are the answer. So, if he pushes all the way (just for podium or top 10) - we'll know he has to prove he's worth of trust, what means - he's not unquestionable leader anymore.

man, if it weren't for valverde's "mental vacations," i'd really be thinking about betting the farm on his wearing oro when it's all said and done. cde are definitely out for oso this time.

Nah I don't care if you've been hijacking my threads. Might get some credibility back here after a poor showing to the year.

Vuelta overall.

1. Sanchez
2. Valverde
3. Basso
4. Mosquero
5. Valjavec

Grater said:

Nah I don't care if you've been hijacking my threads. Might get some credibility back here after a poor showing to the year.

Vuelta overall.

1. Sanchez
2. Valverde
3. Basso
4. Mosquero
5. Valjavec

Sanchez is good pick. He's fresh and motivated, but this edition of the race is maybe to mountainous for him. That's why I'm giving more chances to number 2 in your selection, but his bad days could cost him overall. Third spot for Basso is maybe too optimistic, but after the Giro he should reminded himself how to ride a GT.
There's no Schlecks in your selection and I'd say they have to be considered as serious contenders. There's no Evans too, but I wouldn't rate him for overall neither.

of those you've mentioned, i figure andy schleck most likely to use this g.t. as a warm up for a serious run at the worlds.

Yeah there is a reason why I didn't select a Schleck.

They are preparing for the worlds and Fuglsang is Saxo Bank's leader.

Evans is also preparing for the worlds but if he's in a position to win in the third week he'll change his mind

My predictions:-

1) A Schelck
2) Valverde
3) Basso

& Vino in the top 20!!!

I thinks it's time Schelck got a Grand Tour jersey. I reckon he might go for it if he finds himself in a good position at the end of the 2nd week.

interesting angle in that those climbs the organisers have lined up certainly won't terrify andy schleck & given that his chief climbing rival, contador, is taking the vuelta off. if the odds were at 10:1 or greater, i'd be thinking of wagering on andy. which would be the greater accomplishment for him at this stage of his career? i mean g.t. victories don't just come along all that often.

slovakguy said:

interesting angle in that those climbs the organisers have lined up certainly won't terrify andy schleck & given that his chief climbing rival, contador, is taking the vuelta off. if the odds were at 10:1 or greater, i'd be thinking of wagering on andy. which would be the greater accomplishment for him at this stage of his career? i mean g.t. victories don't just come along all that often.

Hilly World's course like this year's doesn't come that often too. But, if I was Andy Schleck, I'd go for Vuelta.

slovakguy said:

interesting angle in that those climbs the organisers have lined up certainly won't terrify andy schleck & given that his chief climbing rival, contador, is taking the vuelta off. if the odds were at 10:1 or greater, i'd be thinking of wagering on andy. which would be the greater accomplishment for him at this stage of his career? i mean g.t. victories don't just come along all that often.

British bookies are giving him odds of 8 to 1 - not a bad punt.

guess it's time to write off the schlecks' chances of victory.

slovakguy said:

guess it's time to write off the schlecks' chances of victory.

I thought it was understood that they were not in the Vuelta for the GC. Saxo's designated GC man crashed into the back of a tanker parked at the side of the road.

sure, it was understood. i might have actually lumped them both in the group that would withdraw and concentrate on the worlds (andy). but going off at 8:1, andy wasn't such a bad idea. one or two good stages in the mountains (this vuelta has some good ones, too), move him up the gc ladder and who knows? evans was "riding" for the worlds, but he seems to have the bit between his teeth, again.

gtm said:

My predictions:-

1) A Schelck
2) Valverde
3) Basso

& Vino in the top 20!!!

I thinks it's time Schelck got a Grand Tour jersey. I reckon he might go for it if he finds himself in a good position at the end of the 2nd week.

I was clearly drastically wrong about Schleck & Vino. Can anyone link me to any footage of the Vino 'bonk'? It's something I'd like to watch again and again and again.

Time Trial

1. Cancellara
2. Boasson-Hagen
3. Wiggins
4. Martin
5. Ignatiev

Grater said:

Nah I don't care if you've been hijacking my threads. Might get some credibility back here after a poor showing to the year.

Vuelta overall.

1. Sanchez
2. Valverde
3. Basso
4. Mosquero
5. Valjavec

Sanchez 2nd
Valverde 1st
Basso 4th
Mosquera 5th
Valjavec 30th

Guess I had 4 of the top 5 right. Just wrong order.