FTP - What's a reasonable expectation?

For our age (I am 48), I would say 4.5 w/kg would be the upper end; 4.25 w/kg would be very, very good; 4.0 w/kg a reasonable goal for good genetics and training.

I am curious what others observe.

I have a 52 y.o. teammate who is likely 4.75 w/kg - on a good day this will get him top 10 in hilly NorCal M45+ road races so one can surmise that there are several riders with higher numbers.

There also are a few 47 y.o.'s I race against in the M35+ who are easily in the neighborhood of 5 w/kg. Granted, these are exceptional athletes who can succeed on the international level in Masters events (and occasionally pull solid results in P1/2 races) but I'd hesitate to place upper limits on FTP due to age.

More importantly, not only are some of these geezers strong, but with 30 years of racing under their belts, they're wicked smart. 😎

peterpen said:

I have a 52 y.o. teammate who is likely 4.75 w/kg - on a good day this will get him top 10 in hilly NorCal M45+ road races so one can surmise that there are several riders with higher numbers.

There also are a few 47 y.o.'s I race against in the M35+ who are easily in the neighborhood of 5 w/kg. Granted, these are exceptional athletes who can succeed on the international level in Masters events (and occasionally pull solid results in P1/2 races) but I'd hesitate to place upper limits on FTP due to age.

More importantly, not only are some of these geezers strong, but with 30 years of racing under their belts, they're wicked smart. 😎

Just being fair, I am 48, there must be some upper limit placed on FTP as VO2 Max does decline. I was going to say 4.75 w/kg for the exceptional few and 5.0 for the "World Class," but I kept my estimate to those who don't have a 30-year pedigree or are extremely gifted.

would be interesting to see Malcom Elliott's FTP.

For thos of us in the slighty "older" category his name won't be a mistery but for those who may not know who of him....he is a 46 yr old who is still getting excellent results in the UK, against rider 20+ yrs younger than himself.

I suppose though, being an ex-Pro it would stand to him in later years so probably not a good comparison.

en.wikipedia.orgMalcolm ElliottOpen ↗

giannip said:

would be interesting to see Malcom Elliott's FTP.

For thos of us in the slighty "older" category his name won't be a mistery but for those who may not know who of him....he is a 46 yr old who is still getting excellent results in the UK, against rider 20+ yrs younger than himself.

I suppose though, being an ex-Pro it would stand to him in later years so probably not a good comparison.

en.wikipedia.orgMalcolm ElliottOpen ↗

Yes it would be interesting...

giannip said:

would be interesting to see Malcom Elliott's FTP

Dude is my hero. I noticed here that he got 9th in the Lincoln GP on Sunday, a race that he won back in 1983, when I was finishing my first year in university.

We have a 47 year old (48?) in TX who can place top-10 in P/1/2 TTs, and win in M35+ and M45+. He actually just swept all the stages of Joe Martin in M45+, winning a 10 minute TT by 48 seconds!

He also won the road climbing stages in M35+ Ft. Davis festival of hammers this year. He would have won the TT, but he was first on the course, and missed the turnaround.

I'm pretty sure he's over 5.0 W/kg FTP. He just moved here from CA, where I hear he was quite a terror. He just pwns everyone here.

So, don't set expecations of a ceiling -- just set expectations of improvement 😉

waterrockets said:

...He just moved here from CA, where I hear he was quite a terror. He just pwns everyone here.

Either Bickel got a lot faster or y'alls a wee bit slower - he sure wasn't winning everything in NorCal like he seems to be down there. Good for him - like some say, 45 is the new 35. :p He's a good example of someone with lots of power (probably in the 5 w/kg range) who isn't a retired pro - he appears to have plenty of talent and do plenty of hard work.

peterpen said:

Either Bickel got a lot faster or y'alls a wee bit slower - he sure wasn't winning everything in NorCal like he seems to be down there. Good for him - like some say, 45 is the new 35. :p He's a good example of someone with lots of power (probably in the 5 w/kg range) who isn't a retired pro - he appears to have plenty of talent and do plenty of hard work.

Yeah, coming from Colorado, I could see right away that it's not quite as fast here (Austin), and I imagine much of CA is at least as fast as CO. Kurt actually described it something like this: there are people here who are just as fast as those in CA, just not quite as many. In a race in CA, there might be 10 guys who are "that strong," but in TX, there are maybe 2 or 3.

Still, 5 w/kg is strong for anyone, regardless of age.

peterpen said:

Bickel

Who?

waterrockets said:

In a race in CA, there might be 10 guys who are "that strong,"

So why don't riders from California dominate at, e.g., master road nationals?

acoggan said:

Who?

Kurt Bickel. Think he comes from a motorcycle racing background. As to why CA riders don't dominate Nationals, see the comment about fast racers being everywhere, maybe just more of them in CA/ CO. Also, many of the guys winning Masters races here in CA don't go to (road) Nats.

Anyway, to get back OT, particularly given Porkyboy's marathon background, in general I think he'd be wise not to set any arbitrary upper limit on FTP. However, at some point a weight of 80kg is going to keep things in check if we're talking w/kg.

waterrockets said:

Yeah, coming from Colorado, I could see right away that it's not quite as fast here (Austin), and I imagine much of CA is at least as fast as CO. Kurt actually described it something like this: there are people here who are just as fast as those in CA, just not quite as many. In a race in CA, there might be 10 guys who are "that strong," but in TX, there are maybe 2 or 3.

I think that the fast people in every region pretty much terrorize the local clan. It's all relative. If they all go to nationals, assuming a level playing field (altitude, etc.) then you would see a good contest.

Here in New England, the depth of the masters racing field has always been "good" but over the past 5 years, the general consensus is that it has become much deeper and the racing much harder. On any given day, in the 35+ alone there are about 10-15 top-tier guys who can dominate (including the recently retired ex-pros), all of whom are legitimate cat 1-2 riders but also another 20-30 who aren't top tier but you can't count out. If you add in the NYC-area people, it's that much worse as they are not any slower down there and there are so many more of them. Races at the locus where the two clans meet are real shootouts.

It's brutal here. Some people are giving up and going back to cat 3 for an ego-stroke. At least I get to race 45+ next year. 🙂

Steve_B said:

I think that the fast people in every region pretty much terrorize the local clan. It's all relative. If they all go to nationals, assuming a level playing field (altitude, etc.) then you would see a good contest.

I agree generally, but tons of guys at Masters win local and even regional stuff -- but "dominate" to me doesn't even mean winning --- I'll call it top 5, maybe 10, in each age group/event ---- and that pecking group really doesn't change much from year to year at Nats. The finish order may but the same riders are in there, year to year, for the most part. Just don't think that being a top guy from Co/Cali necessarily equates to a top finish at Nats. Maybe, maybe not. The rest of Nats field wouldn't be pack fodder anywhere.

Steve_B said:

Here in New England, the depth of the masters racing field has always been "good" but over the past 5 years, the general consensus is that it has become much deeper and the racing much harder. On any given day, in the 35+ alone there are about 10-15 top-tier guys who can dominate (including the recently retired ex-pros), all of whom are legitimate cat 1-2 riders but also another 20-30 who aren't top tier but you can't count out.

I think this is happening everywhere and it's great. It's a lifetime sport. Guys who started out years ago are still going strong. As for how hard the racing is -- last year at US Nats, the guy who won the 35-39 Masters road race rode the Elite race a few days later and won. (And I am not passing judgment on that or even want to get in the middle of that debate.)

Now if the junior field would just grow.

acoggan said:

So why don't riders from California dominate at, e.g., master road nationals?

My comment isn't so much to say the top individuals in a given region are faster than the top riders anywhere else, just that more of them make the local races faster from one region to another.

I think the M45+ Joe Martin SR this year would be a good example. 2nd place was a guy from KS, which is not a region known for amazingly fast road racing. Still, their top riders (however few there may be) are competitive nationally.