Final TT predictions

gym.gravity said:

L-factor needs a memorable win. Otherwise the only moment that will
stand out in this Tour is the footage of him catching and passing
Ullrich on the "prologue". I think he'll catch Basso on the TT,
"bookending" the tour with yet another pass of his closest percieved GC
threat.

Quoted message said:

1) Armstrong
2) Ullrich -1:01
3) Leipheimer -1:40
4) Landis -1:50
5) Basso -2:10

Basso will finnish in front of both Leipheimer and Landis. Bottero
culd make the top 4.

Quoted message said:

Rassmussen -3:50

:-( lets see - that would have been enough it if he haddednt lost
those 37 seconds on stage 18. However i think Ulrich will be a lot
closer to Armstrong. They will be within 30 seconds, and i don't
neceseraly think that Armstong will take the stage.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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Rik Van Diesel said:

Basso will be passed on the road. 3 minutes he will lose.

No way... This is not stage 1, compare this to his TT's in this years
Giro where he wass 2nd after Zabriskie and won the last TT in front of
Zabriskie.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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Carl Sundquist said:

Given that Rasmussen soloed 167 out of 171 km on stage 9 with four cat
3 climbs, a cat 2 climb and a cat 1 climb averaging 41.3 kph, I'm not
quite ready to discount Rasmussen's tt capability.

Not to forget he lost _less_ than a minute to the TT duo Moreau and Vogt
for the last 40km! Moreau+Vogt shold be faster tahn a single Ullrich,
however i think Rasmussen is tirred by now - secondly he has a sadle
sore, witch means he'll have difficuly staying in a locked aro position.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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gym.gravity said:

I just wonder if he's ever
been in a wind tunnel, or if he's ever done a training ride on his TT
rig.

He has not - and he won't! He is affaraid that it will hurt his
climbing abilities. Besides he think he will suck at it anyway.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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steve said:

I imagine the last few guys will be sent 3 minutes apart to reduce the
chance of passing. Dont they do that on the longer ITTs?

Yes.

Quoted message said:

Of course, LA may get him anyway.

no way...

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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k.papai said:

5. no idea, Botero still around? Julich?

He just almost crashed and lost at least 40 seconds - guess he is out
it allready and taht he won't give it 100%.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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"gym.gravity" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

1) Armstrong
2) Ullrich -1:01
3) Leipheimer -1:40
4) Landis -1:50
5) Basso -2:10

Rassmussen -3:50

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 1.11.46
(46.4 km/h)
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team
0.23
3 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 1.16
4 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC
1.33
5 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC
1.54
6 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 2.02
7 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto
2.06
8 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel 2.25
9 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 2.51
10 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 3.05

77 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank
7.47

My guess of the time gaps AFTER the TT were:

1) Lance Armstrong
2) Jan Ullrich @ 6:00+
3) Ivan Basso @ 7:30+
4) Levi Leipheimer @ 11:00
5) Vino @ 12:10
6) Landis @ 12:30
7) Evans @ 14:30

Presently:

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 82.34.05
(41.762 km/h)
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC
4.40
3 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team
6.21
4 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 9.59
5 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner
11.25
6 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 11.27
7 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank
11.33
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto
11.55
9 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 12.44
10 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Phonak Hearing Systems 16.04

There were enough hills on the course that Basso didn't lose nearly as much
time as I expected. I can hardly believe how well Mancebo rode so I
completely miscalculated on him.

Morten Reippuert Knudsen says...

Quoted message said:

gym.gravity wrote:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I just wonder if he's ever
been in a wind tunnel, or if he's ever done a training ride on his TT
rig.

Quoted message said:

He has not - and he won't! He is affaraid that it will hurt his
climbing abilities. Besides he think he will suck at it anyway.

Hmmm, what about the future? Hopefully, Ras will think it over and work on his
GC weaknesses. Assuming his team can morph towards better support, he can be a
force to be reckoned with. Look at the waves he caused this time! But he's got
to improve dramatically at the TT's. You'd have to go a ways to prove that
wind tunnel testing or training on a TT bike would hurt climbing ability. The
human brain/body is capable of preserving many distinct engrams and they don't
have to interfere with each other. If Ras really thinks he will suck at it, to
me that says it is precisely where he should be increasing his efforts.

Tom Kunich said:

There were enough hills on the course that Basso didn't lose nearly as much
time as I expected.

Basso lost more on the downhills than he gained on the climbs.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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Mad Dog said:

Quoted message said:

He has not - and he won't! He is affaraid that it will hurt his
climbing abilities. Besides he think he will suck at it anyway.

Quoted message said:

Hmmm, what about the future? Hopefully, Ras will think it over and work on his
GC weaknesses. Assuming his team can morph towards better support, he can be a
force to be reckoned with. Look at the waves he caused this time! But he's got
to improve dramatically at the TT's. You'd have to go a ways to prove that
wind tunnel testing or training on a TT bike would hurt climbing ability. The
human brain/body is capable of preserving many distinct engrams and they don't
have to interfere with each other. If Ras really thinks he will suck at it, to
me that says it is precisely where he should be increasing his efforts.

I doubt, that Rasmussen will train specificlly to be a GC contender.
He considers himself to be a pure climber in the tradition of
Bahamontes and Herera.
He won't get a lot better by tuning his position on the bike and
training specificly for TT's. Have you seen how skinny that guy is?
He'd might gain a minutte on a +50km iTT, but that won't be enough.
however he does need to pratice on his TT bike and gain confidance
riding with disc wheels and arobars.

--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk>

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Rik Van Diesel said:

Quoted message said:

3 minutes he will lose.

Ed Sullivan said:

Please stop using Yoda's predictions as your own.

Apparently the force is weakening.

Morten Reippuert Knudsen said:

however he does need to pratice on his TT bike and gain confidance
riding with disc wheels and arobars.

No [censored].

Morten Reippuert Knudsen said:

I doubt, that Rasmussen will train specificlly to be a GC contender.
He considers himself to be a pure climber in the tradition of
Bahamontes and Herera.

Dumbass -

Rasmussen is correct. He doesn't have the all-around talent to be a
contender for the win at the TdF. Better to stick to the polka dots.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.