Final ITT

sportzgurl said:

What chance has Jan got to pull back some time in the final TT????

I would love to know your thoughts on this because I want Jan on the Podium so much that I am pinning all my hopes on the TT.

Im thinking he can't get second of Basso because Basso is good enough to stay there, but can he get third? I would have thought that Jan would have attacked Rasmussen harder yesterday in a bid to get back more time to help with the TT.

What do you rekon????

Rasmussen finished 15 up from last in the first ITT so he'll definitely have his work cut out for him trying to keep time on JU, who is an excellent time trialist. A podium spot in the Tour is a HUGE carrot though so it should be quite interesting to see how hard he tries and even at 15 from last Rasmussen was only a little more than 2 min behind JU, which is pretty close to the time gap that he's got. Should be pretty exciting.

Eden said:

...even at 15 from last Rasmussen was only a little more than 2 min behind JU, which is pretty close to the time gap that he's got. Should be pretty exciting.

The first time trial was only 19km, the remaining one is 55km. If Rasmussen lost 2 minutes to JU in the first one, then he probably doesn't have a prayer in Saturday's longer one, despite currently having a lead of almost 3 minutes.

frenchyge said:

The first time trial was only 19km, the remaining one is 55km. If Rasmussen lost 2 minutes to JU in the first one, then he probably doesn't have a prayer in Saturday's longer one, despite currently having a lead of almost 3 minutes.

Very true, and I don't really think Rasmussen a chance, but I do think he'll give it everything he has left so he should at least give everyone a good show. If he keeps his place until Saturday he will start after JU, which will give him an even bigger carrot since he'll know the whole way how much time JU is pulling back on him.

Rasmussen lost time on the first ITT on purpose. He has stated so himself long before he became a GC threat. If you are going to attack on the early mountain stages like he did, you need to be down by alot in the GC, to be allowed to go far.

Still, he is too lightweight to be a good TT'er, but I see standing after the final ITT as about 50-50 chance on Ulrich vs Rasm.

JensCph said:

Rasmussen lost time on the first ITT on purpose. He has stated so himself long before he became a GC threat. If you are going to attack on the early mountain stages like he did, you need to be down by alot in the GC, to be allowed to go far.

That's interesting, and I hadn't heard that. Kinda ruins the KOM competition, though, when the winning tactic is to sandbad yourself into oblivion so that nobody cares if you breakaway and grab enough points to wrap up the jersey on the first mountain stage of the race.

The top 10 GC is close enough such that the ITT should be rather exciting. The ITT should shake up the GC a bit, and we should see some inspired riding from those in the top 10.

Rasmussen will fight hard and do better than in first ITT but I expect Jan to make the Podium. Don't think though he'll reach Basso but let's see. Ullrich seems to be in great shape the last two days and then no one except Armstrong can beat him in ITT, I expect both to crush their opponents. Lance will be motivated because he wants to win a stage and end the last "real" stage of his last TDF with a win and Ullrich wants to make a Podium and show he is the favourite for next year. Both should like the profile of the course.

sportzgurl said:

What chance has Jan got to pull back some time in the final TT????

I would love to know your thoughts on this because I want Jan on the Podium so much that I am pinning all my hopes on the TT.

Im thinking he can't get second of Basso because Basso is good enough to stay there, but can he get third? I would have thought that Jan would have attacked Rasmussen harder yesterday in a bid to get back more time to help with the TT.

What do you rekon????

Here is how I think the podium will look like:

1. Lance
2. Ivan
3. Jan

pd: Let's hope no accidents or illnesses come by..... 😉

frenchyge said:

That's interesting, and I hadn't heard that. Kinda ruins the KOM competition, though, when the winning tactic is to sandbad yourself into oblivion so that nobody cares if you breakaway and grab enough points to wrap up the jersey on the first mountain stage of the race.

I don't necessarily see it that way. Each jersey competition is its own event, in a sense. You don't see the sprinters killing themselves to try to get over the mountains as fast as possible -- they're goal is to be fresh for the sprints, and they'll conserve as much energy as they can to do so.

Ironically, Rasmussen may be regretting the fact that he eased through the first ITT, because arguably he might be that much closer to Armstrong/Basso these days. (Probably not, of course, because his big breakaway day would probably have been reeled in a bit to prevent him from getting into yellow -- it bears noting that while he's had a marvelous Tour, he was given several minutes on a breakaway where Disco/T-Mobile/CSC did not chase because he was not perceived as a GC threat. )

rejobako said:

I don't necessarily see it that way. Each jersey competition is its own event, in a sense. You don't see the sprinters killing themselves to try to get over the mountains as fast as possible -- they're goal is to be fresh for the sprints, and they'll conserve as much energy as they can to do so.

Ironically, Rasmussen may be regretting the fact that he eased through the first ITT, because arguably he might be that much closer to Armstrong/Basso these days. (Probably not, of course, because his big breakaway day would probably have been reeled in a bit to prevent him from getting into yellow -- it bears noting that while he's had a marvelous Tour, he was given several minutes on a breakaway where Disco/T-Mobile/CSC did not chase because he was not perceived as a GC threat. )

ujum sorry to interrupt but Rasmussen is close to Armstrong because they let him go on the stage he won, only because of that. And then of course, it became a threat.....I don't think he will end-up in the podium though. I think and as I say before, Lance, Ivan and Jan will be the chosen 2005 podium boys. By the way, got any pics with the lycra shorts?????
ha ha ha

Have a good one!

frenchyge said:

That's interesting, and I hadn't heard that. Kinda ruins the KOM competition, though, when the winning tactic is to sandbad yourself into oblivion so that nobody cares if you breakaway and grab enough points to wrap up the jersey on the first mountain stage of the race.

That's exactly how richard virenque won the last KOM competitions in the TDF. With Richards retirement, rassmussen has done exactly what richard used to do. He went into this tour to win the KOM and that the proven method of winning it.

Ullrich was injured much worse than he revealed the day before the TT. He has regained most of his form now. I expect he will turn in the second or third best time on this go round.
I would expect he will try to make up time in stage 18 if the opportunity arises, but that is a "big if".

completely personal opinion....But I don't feel Ras deserves to be on the podium as much as Jan. Ras was given the gift of 6 or 7 min because he wasn't a threat. Granted, that's how all the boys played it so they have to live with it now, but Jan really has had a good tour and I too believe he can pull back the time on Ras. I am looking for Lance to fianlly do some real attacking and put even more time on Basso.

Yeah I argree. I think that in LA's last tour on the podium with him should be those who he has the most respect for and those who have put their backs out to try and attack him. That would be Jan and Ivan. I my opinion MR has just followed the others.

Basso is only 20secs ahead of Rasmussen (i think) If Ullrich can catch Rasmussen he might be able to get Basso aswell......

Well that gives me some hope! I don't see any reason why Jan can't make onto the poduim. Only if Rasmussen pulls of the TT of the centuary. Anyway GO HARD JAN!!! I will be watching at 3.00 in the morning, in the dark, in my sleeping bag and I will be shouting so damn loud at him!!