Fat people? Less gas!

Mike Kruger said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per gallon in
real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15 percent after five
years.

http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/

Correlation and causation confused yet again.

--
Tom Sherman - Holstein-Friesland Bovinia
When did ignorance of biology become a "family value"?

Tom Sherman said:

Mike Kruger said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per
gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15 percent
after five years.

http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/

Correlation and causation confused yet again.

Did you read the dissertation? Because unless you did, how would you
know that that particular error has been committed?

Xho

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payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked
advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate
this fact.

Quoted message said:

Tom Sherman said:

Mike Kruger said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per
gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15
percent after five years.

http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/

Correlation and causation confused yet again.

Did you read the dissertation? Because unless you did, how would you
know that that particular error has been committed?

An article he's submitted to a journal is here.
http://artsci.wustl.edu/%7Ecjcourte/gas_obesity.pdf

He seems to be hedging well enough for academic use: "A causal relationship
between gasoline prices and obesity is possible ... I find empirical support
for this theory. My estimates imply..." That's the start of the abstract.

I haven't read the entire paper yet. There's 19 equations, most of which
seem to be regressions.

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher gasoline
prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and Germany, I did not see
huge numbers of skinny people.

Mike Kruger said:

Quoted message said:

Tom Sherman said:

Mike Kruger wrote:
> According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per
> gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15
> percent after five years.
>
> http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/
>
Correlation and causation confused yet again.

Did you read the dissertation? Because unless you did, how would you
know that that particular error has been committed?

An article he's submitted to a journal is here.
http://artsci.wustl.edu/%7Ecjcourte/gas_obesity.pdf

He seems to be hedging well enough for academic use: "A causal relationship
between gasoline prices and obesity is possible ... I find empirical support
for this theory. My estimates imply..." That's the start of the abstract.

I haven't read the entire paper yet. There's 19 equations, most of which
seem to be regressions.

If you put the price of gas at ten bucks a gallon, everyone is going to
ride their bikes. So they'll get less fat. How isn't that causation?

--
"Throw me that lipstick, darling, I wanna redo my stigmata."

+-Jennifer Saunders, "Absolutely Fabulous"

In article <[email hidden]>,

sally said:

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher gasoline
prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and Germany, I did not see
huge numbers of skinny people.

These countries also have people with different physiognomies, and
mostly speak other languages. Should all of these factors have equal
weight? Why or why not? Discuss.

--
The powers in charge keep us in a continuous stampede of patriotic
fervor with the cry of national emergency. Always there has been some
terrible evil to gobble us up if we did not furnish the sums demanded.
Yet these disasters seem never to have been quite real. -- D. MacArthur

In article <[email hidden]>,

sally said:

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher gasoline
prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and Germany, I did not see
huge numbers of skinny people.

I haven't seen body weight and gasoline prices correlated. But some work
has been done on body weight and urban form:

http://sciencenewsmagazine.org/articles/20070120/bob9.asp

(longish)

--
bill
remove my country for e-mail

Hactar said:

In article <[email hidden]>,

sally said:

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher gasoline
prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and Germany, I did not see
huge numbers of skinny people.

These countries also have people with different physiognomies, and
mostly speak other languages. Should all of these factors have equal
weight? Why or why not? Discuss.

I have read in one print magazine that the cause of obesity in most
first-world countries is not usually lack of exercise, but an imbalanced
diet. Many of the persons studied could afford a healthier diet, they
just made poor choices for their food intake.
~

In article <[email hidden]>,

Bill Bonde ( 'Hi ho' ) said:

Mike Kruger said:

Quoted message said:

Tom Sherman <[email hidden]> wrote:
> Mike Kruger wrote:
>> According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per
>> gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15
>> percent after five years.
>>
>> http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/
>>
> Correlation and causation confused yet again.

Did you read the dissertation? Because unless you did, how would you
know that that particular error has been committed?

An article he's submitted to a journal is here.
http://artsci.wustl.edu/%7Ecjcourte/gas_obesity.pdf

He seems to be hedging well enough for academic use: "A causal relationship
between gasoline prices and obesity is possible ... I find empirical support
for this theory. My estimates imply..." That's the start of the abstract.

I haven't read the entire paper yet. There's 19 equations, most of which
seem to be regressions.

If you put the price of gas at ten bucks a gallon, everyone is going to
ride their bikes.

No they won't. They'll begrudgingly pay the
ten bucks a gallon, and continue to drive.
They're hooked. Totally and inextricably addicted.

cheers,
Tom

--
Nothing is safe from me.
I'm really at:
tkeats curlicue vcn dot bc dot ca

Mke,, if gasoline goes up and up .. making it very very expensive ... no
one will need to go anywhere, because there will be
no jobs.

Take for expample my meager job; I drive a school bus. Already, the bus
company and the school system are talking about
cutting back on routes, etc. Diesel is up to $3 plus per gallon.

Yes, there is waste in the system. Yes, it would be much better if the kids
walked.

But what about all those single mothers I work with. They depend on the
part time job to pay the rent, etc.

What we need is a total effort, led by the president, to get our energy
needs, transportation needs, economy, etc ready for the
$10 dollar per gallon gas. If not? Anarchy. Crime will go through the
roof. Unemployment will be unbelievable.

Just stop for a moment and think ... $10 per gallon gasoline. The poor
could not afford to drive. How will then get anywhere.
And where will they go? To the mall? For what.

Your posting is interesting in that bicycles will be very much a part of the
transportation system. As will walking.

But we will have huge problems to deal with as well.

========================================

"Mike Kruger" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per gallon
in real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15 percent after five
years.

http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/

--
Mike Kruger
Go ahead, threaten me like you have the American people for so long!
You're part of a dying breed, Hapsburg, like people who can name all fifty
states! The truth hurts, doesn't it, Hapsburg? Oh sure, maybe not as much
as landing on a bicycle with the seat missing, but it hurts! [Naked Gun
2-1/2]

DougC said:

I have read in one print magazine that the cause of obesity in most
first-world countries is not usually lack of exercise, but an
imbalanced diet. Many of the persons studied could afford a healthier
diet, they just made poor choices for their food intake.
~

This just arrived in the morning's e-mail from the National Bureau of
Economic Research
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w12954 by
Sara Bleich, David Cutler, Christopher Murray, and Alyce Adams

The conclusions of this paper are surprising and startling 😉 "Results
show that rising obesity is primarily the result of consuming more
calories."

"increased caloric intake accounted for 93 percent of the change in adult
obesity from1990 to 2001 (the remainder is attributable to reduced energy
expenditure). The increase in caloric intake appears to be driven by
technological innovations, such as lower food prices and the ease with which
businesses can enter the marketplace, as well as changing sociodemographic
characteristics such as increased labor force participation and increased
urbanization.
Across the developed world, average food prices fell by 12 percent from 1980
to 2002, which the authors associate with a corresponding higher caloric
intake of approximately 38 calories. A 10 percent increase in female labor
force participation was associated with an increase of approximately 70
calories. A 10 percent increase in urbanization was associated with an
increase of approximately 113 calories.
The authors point out that a very small net increase in calories may lead to
a large increase in obesity, and they predict expected changes in weight
based on the associations they observe between caloric supply and the
drivers of increased consumption. For example, they show that increasing
food prices by 12 percent would be associated with a decrease of 1.5
kilograms (3.4 pounds) for the average 65-kilogram (143-pound) person.
Similarly, they show that decreasing urbanization by 5 percent would be
associated with a decrease of 2.2 kilograms (5 pounds) for the average
65-kilogram person."

This study is also subject to the usual limitations of causal inference.

--
Mike Kruger
Go ahead, threaten me like you have the American people for so long!
You're part of a dying breed, Hapsburg, like people who can name all
fifty states! The truth hurts, doesn't it, Hapsburg? Oh sure, maybe not
as much as landing on a bicycle with the seat missing, but it hurts!
[Naked Gun 2-1/2]

Mike Kruger said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche

You'd trust a study by a dude with a faggy name like that?

In other news, gas is $7/gallon in the UK and they still fry Mars bars.

Tom Keats said:

In article <[email hidden]>,

Bill Bonde ( 'Hi ho' ) said:

Mike Kruger said:

[email hidden] wrote:
> Tom Sherman <[email hidden]> wrote:
>> Mike Kruger wrote:
>>> According to a study by Charles Courtemanche, an additional $1 per
>>> gallon in real gasoline prices would reduce U.S. obesity by 15
>>> percent after five years.
>>>
>>> http://improbable.com/2007/10/30/fat-people-have-less-gas/
>>>
>> Correlation and causation confused yet again.
>
> Did you read the dissertation? Because unless you did, how would you
> know that that particular error has been committed?

An article he's submitted to a journal is here.
http://artsci.wustl.edu/%7Ecjcourte/gas_obesity.pdf

He seems to be hedging well enough for academic use: "A causal relationship
between gasoline prices and obesity is possible ... I find empirical support
for this theory. My estimates imply..." That's the start of the abstract.

I haven't read the entire paper yet. There's 19 equations, most of which
seem to be regressions.

If you put the price of gas at ten bucks a gallon, everyone is going to
ride their bikes.

No they won't. They'll begrudgingly pay the
ten bucks a gallon, and continue to drive.
They're hooked. Totally and inextricably addicted.

You mean still drive giant SUVs? I suspect not. The truth is, three
dollars a gallon isn't that high if you consider inflation and
historical high gas prices. Ten dollars a gallon is crazy too much to
pay and you would see a response.

--
"Throw me that lipstick, darling, I wanna redo my stigmata."

+-Jennifer Saunders, "Absolutely Fabulous"

sally said:

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher gasoline
prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and Germany, I did not see
huge numbers of skinny people.

The rule in England is, "Just as long as I can fit in the Tube."

--
"Throw me that lipstick, darling, I wanna redo my stigmata."

+-Jennifer Saunders, "Absolutely Fabulous"

Sir Thomas of Cannondale said:

Mke,, if gasoline goes up and up .. making it very very expensive ... no
one will need to go anywhere, because there will be
no jobs.

Take for expample my meager job; I drive a school bus. Already, the bus
company and the school system are talking about
cutting back on routes, etc. Diesel is up to $3 plus per gallon.

Yes, there is waste in the system. Yes, it would be much better if the kids
walked.

But what about all those single mothers I work with. They depend on the
part time job to pay the rent, etc.

What we need is a total effort, led by the president, to get our energy
needs, transportation needs, economy, etc ready for the
$10 dollar per gallon gas. If not? Anarchy. Crime will go through the
roof. Unemployment will be unbelievable.

If gasoline is ten dollars a gallon, a lot of alternatives come to mind.
Obviously you can walk or bike, but consider that trains will make more
sense for transporting goods. That would make the roads safer since
accidents involving big rigs, whether or not the drive of the truck is
at fault, tend to be disproportionally deadly.

Other alternatives include gasification (etc.) of waste biological
materials. Call it the Soylent Green of our energy future.

Quoted message said:

Just stop for a moment and think ... $10 per gallon gasoline. The poor
could not afford to drive. How will then get anywhere.
And where will they go? To the mall? For what.

Your posting is interesting in that bicycles will be very much a part of the
transportation system. As will walking.

Many countries have many people riding bikes. Consider China.

--
"Throw me that lipstick, darling, I wanna redo my stigmata."

+-Jennifer Saunders, "Absolutely Fabulous"

landotter said:

Mike Kruger said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche

You'd trust a study by a dude with a faggy name like that?

In other news, gas is $7/gallon in the UK and they still fry Mars bars.

Think of it this way, if you could afford to drive your 15 mpg SUV at $2
per gallon, you can likely afford to drive a 45 mpg car at $6 a gallon
and a 60 mpg Trotter-mobile at $8. Americans can certainly adjust to
increases in petrol prices.

--
"Throw me that lipstick, darling, I wanna redo my stigmata."

+-Jennifer Saunders, "Absolutely Fabulous"

Bill Bonde ( 'Hi ho' ) said:

landotter said:

Mike Kruger said:

According to a study by Charles Courtemanche

Quoted message said:

You'd trust a study by a dude with a faggy name like that?

Quoted message said:

In other news, gas is $7/gallon in the UK and they still fry Mars bars.

Think of it this way, if you could afford to drive your 15 mpg SUV at $2
per gallon, you can likely afford to drive a 45 mpg car at $6 a gallon
and a 60 mpg Trotter-mobile at $8. Americans can certainly adjust to
increases in petrol prices.

Yup. Fuel pricing does little to discourage miles driven. Folks I know
in the UK and Sweden that live outside of cities drive just as much.
The secret to getting people to drive less is inextricably linked to
urban design.

Quoted message said:

"Throw me that lipstick, darling, I wanna redo my stigmata."

Brilliant!

Bill Bonde ( 'Hi ho' ) said:

sally said:

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher
gasoline prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and
Germany, I did not see huge numbers of skinny people.

The rule in England is, "Just as long as I can fit in the Tube."

Obviously doesn't mean an MRI machine, since the waits for things like that
are quite lengthy!

sally said:

What is the average adult weight in countries with much higher gasoline
prices than the USA? Last time I visited England and Germany, I did not see
huge numbers of skinny people.

While I don't know enough to comment on the paper mentioned by the OP,
I must say my impression is different than Sally's.

Last time I was in England and Wales, my business colleague and I
remarked on the greater American obesity as soon as we landed, while
we were watching Americans walk around the airport.

I know that the Brits are concerned about their rising obesity
levels. But I'm pretty sure we're far worse than they are.

- Frank Krygowski