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Draft letter to Injury prevention

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UK and Europe
Published
18 June 2004
Last activity
21 June 2004
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Just Zis Guy
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  1. Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
    ================================================

    To focus on injury mitigation in cyclists to the exclusion
    of addressing the causes of crashes, as is the trend in
    public debate at present, risks fundamental errors - not
    least the apparent post hoc fallacy of assuming that cycling
    head injuries are the result of failure to wear helmets,
    rather than of the types of crashes cyclists experience.

    I recently analysed Department of Health data on child
    hospital admissions for England for the period 1995/96 to
    2002/03.  From this analysis it was apparent that:

    - the proportion of head injuries in child cyclists on the
    road is hardly different from that of child pedestrians;
    - the risk of head injury in offroad cycling is an order of
    magnitude lower than in road cycling;
    - cycling is far from being the leading cause of head injury
    admission, being behind trips and falls and even assault.

    It is interesting to me, as both a cyclist and a parent, to
    explore the reasons that cycling is seen as a uniquely
    dangerous activity, when a dispassionate look at these and
    many other statistics indicates very clearly that it is not.
     Some of us will recently have witnessed "lightbulb moments"
    in friends and colleagues who we have accompanied as "bike
    buddies" in Bike Week.  The comment "well, that was less
    scary than I thought" will have been uttered many times this
    past week!

    I have a view that there are a number of factors at
    work here:

    - head injuries raise a spectre of intellectual disablement
    which cannot be "fixed" by modern medicine, even though
    this is very rare - the fact that such injuries are now
    thought to be mainly the result of rotational forces which
    helmets do not mitigate (and may even aggravate) adds a
    touch of irony;

    - even trivial head injuries can bleed spectacularly, which
    combines with the fear factor above to ensure the maximum
    likelihood of attendance at A&E or a minor injuries unit
    "just in case" - even though in most cases treatment is
    limited to dressing or, at worst, stitches - so that
    nurses, for example, "see a lot of cycling head injuries";

    - there exists a substantial industry whose expensive
    product will not sell unless a culture of fear is
    maintained, and the protective effect

    modern helmet if they were told bluntly that they are tested
    only for the equivalent of a fall from a stationary riding
    position, yet this is the literal truth (and explains the
    wide disparity between claims made by manufacturers, whose
    claims are controlled by advertising regulations, and by
    helmet advocacy groups, who still quote the discredited 1989
    Thompson, Rivara and Thompson study);

    - the culture of fear extends in particular to the danger of
    motor traffic, with some justification as the estimated
    10% of child cycling which is on-road results in half of
    all cyclist admissions;

    - there is a widespread and undoubtedly false belief that,
    firstly, there is nothing that can be done about the
    source of this danger
    (i.e. drivers cannot be made to drive more carefully), and
    secondly, that no amount of riding skill can reduce
    the danger;

    - fundamentally, most of those campaigning for helmets are
    not cyclists and have little understanding of the vast
    range of different activities and scales of risk which
    that term encompasses - it is as if all outdoor activity
    from afternoon walks in the park to free-climbing were
    considered under a single umbrella.

    One thing struck me very forcefully when analysing the
    admissions data.  Motor vehicles account for around 10% of
    child hospital admissions but half of all injury fatalities
    (Office of National Statistics).  This greatly increased
    danger is shared by cyclists, (far more numerous)
    pedestrians and motor vehicle occupants.  The danger is
    inherent in the source, not the victims' activities.

    A proper study of head injury in cyclists cannot evade these
    facts.  It is well known that cyclists in particular are
    generally not to blame in crashes involving motor traffic;
    what is less well known is that riding techniques already
    exist which dramatically reduce the chances of some of the
    more common sorts of crash.  It is to be hoped that public
    debate on cyclist safety will soon lose its cyclopean focus
    on injury mitigation devices which, it has to be said, are
    not associated anywhere in the world with improvements in
    safety, and shift onto prevention, both by improved driver
    behaviour and better riding skills.

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    chapmancentral.co.ukchapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  2. Just zis Guy said:

    Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
    ================================================

    Looks fine to me, but it is clear from a quick browse that
    IP is well established in the junk science category, full of
    space-fillers from wannabe "researchers" strongly in need of
    a clue-by-four and with absolutely no editorial quality
    control whatsoever.

    The recent letters page is good for a laugh.

    ip.bmjjournals.comeletters
    60

    James
    --
    If I have seen further than others, it is by treading on the
    toes of giants. ne.jphome

  3. On Fri, 18 Jun 2004 23:57:33 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you
    know?" <[email hidden]> wrote (more or
    less): ...

    Quoted message said:

    One thing struck me very forcefully when analysing the
    admissions data.  Motor vehicles account for around 10% of
    child hospital admissions but half of all injury fatalities
    (Office of National Statistics).  This greatly increased
    danger is shared by cyclists, (far more numerous)
    pedestrians and motor vehicle occupants.  The danger is
    inherent in the source, not the victims' activities.

    A proper study of head injury in cyclists cannot evade
    these facts.  It is well known that cyclists in particular
    are generally not to blame in crashes involving motor
    traffic; what is less well known is that riding techniques
    already exist which dramatically reduce the chances of some
    of the more common sorts of crash.  It is to be hoped that
    public debate on cyclist safety will soon lose its
    cyclopean focus on injury mitigation devices which, it has
    to be said, are not associated anywhere in the world with
    improvements in safety, and shift onto prevention, both by
    improved driver behaviour and better riding skills.


    ...

    Perhaps a mention of increase in danger per person as the
    number of cycling persons decreases?

    Seeing as you're covering just about every point relative to
    helmets and cyclist safety already.... :-)

    --
    Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: gawnsoft.co.srgawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: html.dnsalias.nethtml.dnsalias.net Smalltalk
    links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk)
    html.dnsalias.netsmalltalk

  4. Just zis Guy said:

    Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
    ================================================

    Three suggestions. First you switch between impersonal and
    personal. It is tradition to write in the impersonal in
    journals. Second you miss out the biggest safety factor
    being numbers cycling and third it would probably help if
    you were to stick in some references to some of the papers
    demonstrating your points e.g Crook and Shakey as a
    reference in para 1.

    Tony

  5. Tony Raven said:
    Just zis Guy said:

    Bicycle Helmets: Time for a sense of perspective
    ================================================

    Three suggestions. First you switch between impersonal and
    personal. It is tradition to write in the impersonal in
    journals. Second you miss out the biggest safety factor
    being numbers cycling and third it would probably help if
    you were to stick in some references to some of the papers
    demonstrating your points e.g Crook and Shakey as a
    reference in para 1.

    I'll add to that by suggesting that you dont cite TRT as
    'discredited' but instead say something like 'blatently use
    the figures from TRT [ref] even though these figures are
    dramatically higher than any other study, of dubious merit
    [ref dorre's refutation] and have been revised downwards by
    the authors [ref to correction].'

    says the same thing just a little more professionally.

    ..d

  6. Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web/p-
    ublic.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    chapmancentral.co.ukchapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  7. On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 11:34:09 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you know?"
    <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web/-
    public.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy

    Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
    'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.

    'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car'😉 and you
    want an adverb.

    [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point at hand]

    --
    Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: gawnsoft.co.srgawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: html.dnsalias.nethtml.dnsalias.net Smalltalk
    links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk)
    html.dnsalias.netsmalltalk

  8. "Gawnsoft" <[email hidden]> wrote in
    message "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 11:34:09 +0100, "Just zis Guy, you
    know?" <[email hidden]> wrote (more or less):

    Quoted message said:

    Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/we-
    b/public.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy

    Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
    'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.

    'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car'😉 and you
    want an adverb.

    [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point at hand]

    Are you certain about that?

    if we ignore the typo - [at]

    quote/

    If the readers of Injury Prevention wish to ensure child
    safety, the most effective course of action is clear. If
    they can't switch from driving to a low-impact mode such as
    cycling, they should [at] drive slower and more carefully.

    /unquote

    As stated, the last sentence quite clearly implies they
    should drive slower - than they presently do. It sets the
    desired speed in a context.

    Asking drivers to simply driver slower - without any implied
    comparison is clearly meaningless and nobody would intend
    such a thing.

    As is also asking them to simply drive "more slowly".
    What's that supposed to mean ? Asking drivers to drive
    "more slowly" implies that they're driving "slowly" to some
    extent already. A car that is say traveling at 60 miles per
    hour perhaps ?

    If you insist on asking them to drive "more slowly", then
    similarly you will need to say "drive more slowly than you
    currently do."

    Which in fact might have quite the opposite effect to that
    intended. As it would plant the idea in the motorist's head
    that he was indeed already driving slowly.

    I think.

    Curious

    ...

    Quoted message said:

    --
    Cheers, Euan Gawnsoft: gawnsoft.co.srgawnsoft.co.sr
    Symbian/Epoc wiki: html.dnsalias.nethtml.dnsalias.net Smalltalk
    links (harvested from comp.lang.smalltalk)


    html.dnsalias.netsmalltalk

  9. Dr Curious <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
    'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.

    'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car'😉 and you
    want an adverb.

    [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point
    at hand]

    Are you certain about that?

    if we ignore the typo - [at]

    quote/

    If the readers of Injury Prevention wish to ensure child
    safety, the most effective course of action is clear. If
    they can't switch from driving to a low-impact mode such
    as cycling, they should [at] drive slower and more
    carefully.

    /unquote

    As stated, the last sentence quite clearly implies they
    should drive slower - than they presently do. It sets the
    desired speed in a context.

    Asking drivers to simply driver slower - without any
    implied comparison is clearly meaningless and nobody would
    intend such a thing.

    As is also asking them to simply drive "more slowly".
    What's that supposed to mean ? Asking drivers to drive
    "more slowly" implies that they're driving "slowly" to
    some extent already. A car that is say traveling at 60
    miles per hour perhaps ?

    If you insist on asking them to drive "more slowly", then
    similarly you will need to say "drive more slowly than you
    currently do."

    Which in fact might have quite the opposite effect to that
    intended. As it would plant the idea in the motorist's
    head that he was indeed already driving slowly.

    The grammar is indeed defective. "Drive slower" should
    not be used.

    While a direct replacement with a grammatically correct
    phrase may obscure the author's meaning, it is no excuse for
    using incorrect grammar. The phrase should be entirely re-
    written; "reduce their speed" would serve.

  10. Dr Curious said:


    Are you certain about that?

    He's correct. Its "drive more slowly" Which of the
    following makes sense to you - "drive slow; drive slower;
    drive slowest" or "drive slowly; driver more slowly". The
    first sequence is incorrect as it is using adjectives to
    modify a verb whereas the second is correctly using adverbs
    to modify the verb.

    Tony

  11. "Tony Raven" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Dr Curious said:


    Are you certain about that?

    He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"

    Right. So it's "drive more slowly" than what exactly?

    Curious

    Quoted message said:


    Tony

  12. On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 14:57:37 +0100, "Tony Raven"
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    [snip slower / much more slowly enough]

    Gaaah! They should slow down!

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    chapmancentral.co.ukchapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  13. "Tony Raven" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Dr Curious said:


    Are you certain about that?

    He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"

    So that -

    a) a car which is being driven at 90 mph is being "driven
    more slowly" than a car which is being driven at 100mph.

    Is that correct?

    However -

    b) Such a car which is being driven "more slowly" must at
    the very least, be being driven "slowly".

    So that -

    c) A car which is being driven at 90 mph can in certain
    circumstances be described as being "driven slowly".

    Agree?

    Curious

    Quoted message said:

    Tony

  14. Dr Curious said:

    "Tony Raven" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:2jj1cpF120n9mU1@uni-
    berlin.de...

    Quoted message said:
    Dr Curious said:


    Are you certain about that?

    He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"

    Right. So it's "drive more slowly" than what exactly?

    More slowly than you are or have been driving of course. It
    is not normally necessary to spell out that which can be
    reasonably inferred.

    Tony

  15. Dr Curious said:

    "Tony Raven" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:2jj1cpF120n9mU1@uni-
    berlin.de...

    Quoted message said:
    Dr Curious said:


    Are you certain about that?

    He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"

    So that -

    a) a car which is being driven at 90 mph is being "driven
    more slowly" than a car which is being driven at
    100mph.

    Is that correct?

    However -

    b) Such a car which is being driven "more slowly" must at
    the very least, be being driven "slowly".

    So that -

    c) A car which is being driven at 90 mph can in certain
    circumstances be described as being "driven slowly".

    Agree?

    The "All cats have three tails" logic*. But certainly if you
    are in an F1 or Indy Cart race driving at 90mph can be
    described as driving slowly. Your point is?

    Tony

    * Every cat has one more tail than no cat No cat has two
    tails Ergo all cats have three tails

  16. "jtaylor" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Dr Curious <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:2jit58F12b0h1U1@uni-
    berlin.de...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Grammar police point. The closing sentence should read
    'drive more slowly' rather than 'drive slower'.

    'slower' is an adjective*, (e.g. 'a slower car'😉 and
    you want an adverb.

    [* or a comparative, but that's beside the point at
    hand]

    Are you certain about that?

    if we ignore the typo - [at]

    quote/

    If the readers of Injury Prevention wish to ensure child
    safety, the most effective course of action is clear. If
    they can't switch from driving to a low-impact mode such
    as cycling, they should [at] drive slower and more
    carefully.

    /unquote

    As stated, the last sentence quite clearly implies they
    should drive slower - than they presently do. It sets
    the desired speed in a


    context.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:


    Asking drivers to simply driver slower - without any
    implied comparison is clearly meaningless and nobody
    would intend such a thing.

    As is also asking them to simply drive "more slowly".
    What's that


    supposed

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    to mean ? Asking drivers to drive "more slowly" implies
    that they're driving "slowly" to some extent already. A
    car that is say traveling at 60 miles per hour perhaps ?

    If you insist on asking them to drive "more slowly",
    then similarly you will need to say "drive more slowly
    than you currently do."

    Which in fact might have quite the opposite effect to
    that intended. As


    it

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    would plant the idea in the motorist's head that he was
    indeed already driving slowly.

    The grammar is indeed defective. "Drive slower" should not
    be used.

    ...

    Fair enough. "Slower" here, is presumably a substitute for
    something on the lines of "at a speed which is slower than
    you normally do".

    As a matter of interest is "drive at a slower speed"
    correct?

    Presumably "drive at (in the direction of) the gate "
    certainly is.

    Quoted message said:


    While a direct replacement with a grammatically correct
    phrase may


    obscure

    Quoted message said:

    the author's meaning, it is no excuse for using incorrect
    grammar. The phrase should be entirely re-written; "reduce
    their speed" would serve.

    Presumably the "more carefully" should really cover the
    speed aspect in any case, but your suggestion of "reduce
    their speed" seems the most obvious solution. Though there
    may still be a bit of mileage to be got out of "more
    slowly" perhaps.

    Curious

  17. "Tony Raven" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:
    Dr Curious said:

    "Tony Raven" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Dr Curious wrote:
    >
    > Are you certain about that?
    >

    He's correct. Its "drive more slowly"

    So that -

    a) a car which is being driven at 90 mph is being
    "driven more slowly" than a car which is being driven
    at 100mph.

    Is that correct?

    However -

    b) Such a car which is being driven "more slowly" must
    at the very least, be being driven "slowly".

    So that -

    c) A car which is being driven at 90 mph can in certain
    circumstances be described as being "driven slowly".

    Agree?

    The "All cats have three tails" logic*.

    ...

    How so?

    ...

    Quoted message said:

    But certainly if you are in an F1 or Indy Cart race
    driving at 90mph can be described as driving slowly. Your
    point is?

    ...

    When using the admittedly grammatically incorrect
    "slower" it implies "slower than the speed" at which the
    car was previously being driven. Which is what was
    intended, at least.

    Whereas using "slowly" or "more slowly", as in the above
    example, it can imply simply driving slower than the
    speed the car is capable of. Which isn't necessarily what
    was intended.

    Curious

    Quoted message said:


    Tony

    * Every cat has one more tail than no cat No cat has two
    tails Ergo all cats have three tails

  18. "Just zis Guy, you know?" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    Updated draft at <url:http://www.chapmancentral.co.uk/web-
    /public.nsf/Documents/ip> Guy

    Suggest
    1."To focus on injury mitigation to cyclists ..."

    instead of

    "To focus on injury mitigation in cyclists ..."

    2

    Omit the words 'post hoc' (sounds too fancy, and how many
    will know what they mean?)

    3

    Change (i.e. drivers cannot be made to drive more
    carefully), to (i.e. drivers and cyclists cannot be made to
    drive/cycle more carefully),

    [I drive to work on a road that is used by boys cycling to a
    local school. I am surprised there isnt at least one
    fatality a week going by their standard of cycling, which
    was obviously taught at Mr Dangerous's Kamikaze School of
    Cycling]. There is a difference between skill (which you
    then mention) and being careful. Being careful should come
    first so the cyclist doesnt need the skills to get out of
    the dangerous position they have put themselves in (if thats
    the case).

    2.

    What do you mean by "participation"? Its not clear to me.
    Could it be simply explained at the first point it is
    mentioned? Do you mean 'lots of cyclists'?

    3. Your conclusion isnt that clear to me; First you have no
    knowledge of the driving habits of the readers of Injury
    Prevention,and could be regarded as implying that they
    all drive too fast and not carefully. (otherwise why tell
    them to slow down and drive more carefully?). Second, on
    the road I mentioned above, a more effective action would
    be taking away the bikes from the kids who are cycling
    not just unsafely but dangerously, and forcing them to
    take part in cycling lessons until they learn them. Why
    should people be forced to drive at 5mph because kids
    insist on suddenly veering in front of cars, pushing each
    other as a laugh whilst cycling, crossing the road
    without dismounting when there is a gap of a couple of
    seconds before the next car (and never mind there is a
    ped crossing 100m further on), etc?

    How about a more balanced conclusion that still brings out
    the point that since helmets wont protect from most serious
    head injuries (since they arent designed to do this at road
    traffic accident speeds), reducing the cause of accidents is
    a far more effective way of reducing head injuries?

    --
    Tumbleweed

    Remove my socks for email address

  19. On Sat, 19 Jun 2004 17:43:35 +0100, "Tumbleweed"
    <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    <[email hidden]>:

    Quoted message said:

    How about a more balanced conclusion that still brings out
    the point that since helmets wont protect from most serious
    head injuries (since they arent designed to do this at road
    traffic accident speeds), reducing the cause of accidents
    is a far more effective way of reducing head injuries?

    The idea of the final paragraph is to bring home the point
    that the drivers of the vehicles which most of the danger on
    the roads (even those kamikaze kids will likely not die
    unless their path intersects with a motor vehicle) are not
    some nebulous "them", but are the far less nebulous "us". Do
    we sit there crying into our beer because driving causes
    danger, or do we do something about it by reducing the
    danger we ourselves pose, and setting an example?

    Guy
    --
    May contain traces of irony. Contents liable to settle after posting.
    chapmancentral.co.ukchapmancentral.co.uk

    88% of helmet statistics are made up, 65% of them at Washington University

  20. Dr Curious said:


    Fair enough. "Slower" here, is presumably a substitute for
    something on the lines of "at a speed which is slower than
    you normally do".

    As a matter of interest is "drive at a slower speed"
    correct?

    Yes because slower is an adjective and it is being used
    correctly to modify the noun speed

    Quoted message said:


    Presumably the "more carefully" should really cover the
    speed aspect in any case, but your suggestion of "reduce
    their speed" seems the most obvious solution. Though there
    may still be a bit of mileage to be got out of "more
    slowly" perhaps.

    Not really. You could drive more slowly and less carefully
    or more quickly but more carefully. Tricky stuff this
    grammar ;-)

    Tony

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