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Cycle facilities in the FT

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29 April 2007
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Tony Raven
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  1. This Saturday's FT has an article asking for more segregated cycle
    facilities. Below it I have appended my letter to the editor. I did
    learn a new word from it though - pandonor.

    --
    Tony

    "The most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there
    is no good evidence either way."
    - Bertrand Russell

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/110ad456-f5a5-11db-a3fe-000b5df10621.html

    A point of honour

    By Harry Eyres

    Published: April 28 2007 03:00

    Dear David Cameron,

    I recently discovered that we are cousins. So far the consanguineous tie
    has not resulted in any response to or acknowledgement of various
    e-mails I have sent to your office. I realise you have had a tough,
    toff-bashing press from some of my colleagues, but I can assure you I am
    trying to raise constructive points, not to revive an old class war that
    would leave us both at the business end of a tumbril.

    I like much of what you have said so far about a new politics in Britain
    based on the quality of life. I am encouraged to think this might be
    more than Blairite hot air. But I can't help fearing that these good
    intentions might go the way of other green dawns into brown tomorrows.
    After all, quality of life was being touted as the next big thing while
    I was studying environmental policy at LSE, in 2001-02. In next to no
    time, quality of life had translated into airport expansions, house
    building on flood plains in the south east, massive new road-building
    programmes and new nuclear power stations.

    You recently wrote that you wanted to make England's "green and pleasant
    land" one of the best places in the world to live. That is a worthy aim.
    But surely it will take some tough policy decisions to deliver that goal.

    Let me concentrate on just one policy area: transport, and one humble
    mode within that area: the bicycle. We all know that you are a keen
    cyclist, even if logistics dictate that an official four-wheeled vehicle
    must sometimes follow your two wheels in to work. I expect you agree
    with me that the bicycle is the most environmentally friendly piece of
    technology ever devised by humankind - a brilliant solution to
    transport, health and the environment all rolled into one. It looks also
    as if you enjoy the freedom and exhilaration of pedal power.

    Freedom, I know, is close to the heart of your political philosophy. You
    explicitly espouse the libertarian side of conservatism. But as we all
    know, freedom is a complex matter. A free-for-all on roads without
    dedicated cycle lanes leads to carnage among cyclists. Forgive me now
    for boring you with some statistics - statistics that might give you and
    your wife pause for thought.

    The UK is not a cycle-friendly country. Only 2 per cent of journeys are
    made by bike in the UK , as opposed to 11 per cent in Germany and 27 per
    cent in the Netherlands. Two of the European countries with the highest
    provision of dedicated cycle lanes are Denmark and Netherlands. For
    those who, for whatever reasons (the erosion of the sacred freedom of
    motorists, the pundonor of cyclists' organisations), pooh-pooh dedicated
    cycle lanes, consider these figures. According to a recent study, a
    cyclist is seven times less likely to be injured in the Netherlands than
    in England, and 10 times less likely to be injured in Denmark. The
    injuries suffered by cyclists in collisions with cars, trucks or buses
    are frequently horrific, when they are not fatal; cyclists have no metal
    skin to protect them, no seat belts, no air bags.

    You must think about this as you cycle round the city, dodging motorists
    and those drivers of buses, taxis and trucks who appear to be on a
    mission to notch up another pair of Lycra shorts on the side of the van.
    You are a husband and father.

    So what to do about it - or what would I like you to do about if you win
    the next election? First of all, force local authorities to build more
    dedicated cycle lanes. I mean proper cycle lanes, not ones, like so many
    in London, which peter out after 50 metres, leaving cyclists stranded at
    hellish intersections. It will cost money, sure, but it will save lives
    and limbs and encourage more cyclists on to the roads, which will in
    turn bring health and environmental benefits.

    And how about this as a way of raising the money you will need? In
    addition to a compulsory road test for cyclists, introduce a new, much
    tougher driving test for motorists, bus drivers and HGV drivers, who at
    present have no idea how to share the roads safely with cyclists (for
    instance, hardly ever giving them the same room as cars when overtaking,
    as laid down in rule 139 of the Highway Code). Price the new tests at a
    level which would raise revenue. The tests would bring health and safety
    benefits as well as raising money.

    Recently I have noticed a backlash against cyclists, many of whom ignore
    red lights and commit other traffic offences. Would you agree with me in
    finding this reminiscent of the imprecations against the depravity of
    the poor common in the 18th and 19th centuries? In the 20th century,
    enlightened economists and politicians realised that the best way to
    counter the depravity of the poor was to make them less poor, to give
    them something approaching the quality of life enjoyed by the rich.

    The best way to counter the apparently anarchic (in fact, purely
    self-protective) behaviour of cyclists is to give them decent and safe
    conditions in which to cycle. The over-mighty roads and car lobby is
    doing its best to shift the burden of blame from the perpetrators of
    manslaughter (cars kill thousands and maim many thousands more every
    year) on to the victims. Will you please put your money where your mouth
    has been and make cycling safety a priority? Will you do something and
    not just waffle?

    [email hidden] More columns at www.ft.com/eyres

    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sir

    H L Mencken once made the observation that "For every complex problem
    there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong" and Harry Eyres has
    fallen for that answer in his letter to Mr Cameron (A Point of Honour,
    FT 28 April)

    First, while we would all like cycling to be safer, there is no cyclist
    carnage on the roads - you are 30% less likely per km to be killed
    cycling than walking. Second, research has consistently shown that
    segregated cycle facilities are significantly more dangerous than roads
    - even in the Netherlands and Denmark. The reason why cycling is safer
    there is far more complex than cycle facilities. Third, cycle
    facilities do not increase cycling. Over a period of ten years starting
    in the late 1980's the Netherlands doubled and Germany trebled their
    cycle network at significant cost and to no effect on the numbers cycling.

    The answer to encouraging more and safer cycling is to ensure that
    cyclists are accepted and encouraged as normal road users. As London
    has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the roads,
    other road users will both expect them and learn to interact safely with
    them. Cycling in London had doubled and the number of accidents halved.
    Wall us off in cycling ghettos as Mr Eyres proposes and the opposite
    will happen.

    Yours sincerely

    Dr Tony Raven

  2. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Tony Raven <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> H L Mencken once made the observation that "For every complex problem
    |> there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong" and Harry Eyres has
    |> fallen for that answer in his letter to Mr Cameron (A Point of Honour,
    |> FT 28 April)

    Not entirely. He has made some good points.

    |> First, while we would all like cycling to be safer, there is no cyclist
    |> carnage on the roads - you are 30% less likely per km to be killed
    |> cycling than walking. ...

    Which, based on the usual speed ratio, is nearly 3 times the rate per
    hour or per trip - I don't know what the more accurate figures are.
    Also, you are ignoring the fact that all people who are not seriously
    disabled walk, and that is no longer true for cycling - my guess is
    that over 2/3 of cyclists come from the most athletic 10% of the
    population.

    |> As London
    |> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the roads,
    |> other road users will both expect them and learn to interact safely with
    |> them.

    Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.

    |> Cycling in London had doubled and the number of accidents halved.
    |> Wall us off in cycling ghettos as Mr Eyres proposes and the opposite
    |> will happen.

    Nah. The number of accidents will drop, but nowhere near as much as
    the number of cyclists. It is only the accident rate that will go up.
    There's lots of precedent for that.

    Personally, I believe that his point about tests is a possible solution,
    as I have posted before, though his details are hopeless. But, given
    the viciously anti-cycling attitude of the DfT and its quangos, and the
    hopeless attitude of the so-called pressure groups for cyclist, I don't
    see a hope in hell.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  3. "Nick Maclaren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    In article <[email hidden]>,
    Tony Raven <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> H L Mencken once made the observation that "For every complex problem
    |> there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong" and Harry Eyres
    has
    |> fallen for that answer in his letter to Mr Cameron (A Point of Honour,
    |> FT 28 April)

    Not entirely. He has made some good points.

    |> First, while we would all like cycling to be safer, there is no cyclist
    |> carnage on the roads - you are 30% less likely per km to be killed
    |> cycling than walking. ...

    Which, based on the usual speed ratio, is nearly 3 times the rate per
    hour or per trip - I don't know what the more accurate figures are.
    Also, you are ignoring the fact that all people who are not seriously
    disabled walk, and that is no longer true for cycling - my guess is
    that over 2/3 of cyclists come from the most athletic 10% of the
    population.

    |> As London
    |> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the
    roads,
    |> other road users will both expect them and learn to interact safely
    with
    |> them.

    Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.

    |> Cycling in London had doubled and the number of accidents halved.
    |> Wall us off in cycling ghettos as Mr Eyres proposes and the opposite
    |> will happen.

    Nah. The number of accidents will drop, but nowhere near as much as
    the number of cyclists. It is only the accident rate that will go up.
    There's lots of precedent for that.

    Personally, I believe that his point about tests is a possible solution,
    as I have posted before, though his details are hopeless. But, given
    the viciously anti-cycling attitude of the DfT and its quangos, and the
    hopeless attitude of the so-called pressure groups for cyclist, I don't
    see a hope in hell.

    There is no point in having tests without the appropriate training. If the
    training was adequate, there will be no need for the tests.

    David Lloyd

  4. In article <[email hidden]>,
    "David Lloyd" <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> There is no point in having tests without the appropriate training. If the
    |> training was adequate, there will be no need for the tests.

    Not at all. You have completely misunderstood what I propose. The
    tests would be mandatory on all officials and politicians involved
    in transport decisions, part of the HGV and PSV licences (including
    taxis) and made mandatory on any driver involved in an accident
    where a cyclist was injured or his property damaged unless the driver
    could prove no culpability in a court (which is a MUCH stronger
    condition than not being convicted). A driver would NOT lose his
    licence (unless found culpable), unless he failed to pass such a test
    within 6 months or a year, depending on circumstances. The test
    would involve a mandatory log of cycling under an appropriate range
    of conditions, with a suitable GPS device loaned and some spot checks.
    The penalties for passing off would be substantial.

    Oh, cyclists as such? Whether they are required to pass the test or
    not is immaterial.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  5. Nick Maclaren wrote on 29/04/2007 13:46 +0100:

    Quoted message said:


    |> As London
    |> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the roads,
    |> other road users will both expect them and learn to interact safely with
    |> them.

    Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.

    I know you think that Cambridge is so dangerous that you cannot cycle
    safely in it and I know that you profess that lots of people share your
    views but those views are known to be at odds with most in the Cambridge
    Cycling Campaign myself included. But then they all cycle in Cambridge
    and you don't any more.

    --
    Tony

    "The most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there
    is no good evidence either way."
    - Bertrand Russell

  6. "Nick Maclaren" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    In article <[email hidden]>,
    "David Lloyd" <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> There is no point in having tests without the appropriate training. If
    the
    |> training was adequate, there will be no need for the tests.

    Not at all. You have completely misunderstood what I propose. The
    tests would be mandatory on all officials and politicians involved
    in transport decisions, part of the HGV and PSV licences (including
    taxis) and made mandatory on any driver involved in an accident
    where a cyclist was injured or his property damaged unless the driver
    could prove no culpability in a court (which is a MUCH stronger
    condition than not being convicted). A driver would NOT lose his
    licence (unless found culpable), unless he failed to pass such a test
    within 6 months or a year, depending on circumstances. The test
    would involve a mandatory log of cycling under an appropriate range
    of conditions, with a suitable GPS device loaned and some spot checks.
    The penalties for passing off would be substantial.

    Oh, cyclists as such? Whether they are required to pass the test or
    not is immaterial.


    Oh I get you now. In the original letter it also talked about compulsory rod
    test for cyclist. This is what I thought you were refering to. I think the
    parent and child cycle training that Tony Crispin has been writting about
    should be more widely available, if not compulsory with the purchase of a
    kid's first big bike. If you buy a kid a big bike, you need to be taught how
    to teach them to ride it safely.

    David Lloyd

  7. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Tony Raven <[email hidden]> writes:
    |> >
    |> > |> As London
    |> > |> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the roads,
    |> > |> other road users will both expect them and learn to interact safely with
    |> > |> them.
    |> >
    |> > Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.
    |>
    |> I know you think that Cambridge is so dangerous that you cannot cycle
    |> safely in it and I know that you profess that lots of people share your
    |> views but those views are known to be at odds with most in the Cambridge
    |> Cycling Campaign myself included. But then they all cycle in Cambridge
    |> and you don't any more.

    I know that you are fond of misquoting people to make your point, but
    it is an offensive practice. I suggest that you stop it. But I shall
    not respond to the errors in that statement.

    However, I suggest that you look at the Cambridge Cycling Campaign's
    survey - in particular the rate of assaults. You and many people from
    its committee denied that it was a serious problem; the members disagreed,
    both from the floor and in the survey. Cambridge has the highest rate
    of cyclists on the road of anywhere in the UK, and there is very strong
    evidence that it is not correspondingly safer.

    I shall omit the question of whether the membership of that organisation
    is representative of Cambridge cyclists, let alone Cambridge ex-cyclists
    or even Cambridge potential cyclists. I have some evidence that it is
    not, but my evidence could perfectly well be as biassed as I believe the
    Campaign's membership is. And I am using the term "biassed" in its
    statistical sense.

    Cambridge's experience does not confirm that larger numbers of cyclists
    necessarily means that other road users will learn to interact safely
    with them.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  8. In article <[email hidden]>,
    "David Lloyd" <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> Oh I get you now. In the original letter it also talked about compulsory rod
    |> test for cyclist. This is what I thought you were refering to.

    I was probably being unclear - again.

    |> I think the
    |> parent and child cycle training that Tony Crispin has been writting about
    |> should be more widely available, if not compulsory with the purchase of a
    |> kid's first big bike. If you buy a kid a big bike, you need to be taught how
    |> to teach them to ride it safely.

    Agreed, but I disagree that training children is more than a very small
    part of the solution[*]. Even if children rode perfectly, if they see
    that it is something that adults do only if they are extremely odd or
    very low-status, they will give it up as soon as they can.

    That was what used to happen back in the 1960s, when cycling was still
    near-universal among children in many areas, but was fading fast among
    adults.

    [*] Which doesn't mean that reducing such child deaths and permanent
    injuries isn't desirable in itself.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  9. Quoted message said:

    |> First, while we would all like cycling to be safer, there is no
    |> cyclist carnage on the roads - you are 30% less likely per km to be
    |> killed cycling than walking. ...

    Which, based on the usual speed ratio, is nearly 3 times the rate per
    hour or per trip - I don't know what the more accurate figures are.

    Given that the figures quoted were for utility/transport it seems
    reasonable to use a per km measurement rather than time - exposure time is
    very relevent when measuring risk.

    Quoted message said:

    |> As London
    |> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the
    |> roads, other road users will both expect them and learn to interact
    |> safely with them.

    Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.

    Interesting. Can you point me to some figures?

  10. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Mark Thompson <pleasegivegenerously@warmmail*_turn_up_the_heat_to_reply*.com> writes:
    |> >|> First, while we would all like cycling to be safer, there is no
    |> >|> cyclist carnage on the roads - you are 30% less likely per km to be
    |> >|> killed cycling than walking. ...
    |> >
    |> > Which, based on the usual speed ratio, is nearly 3 times the rate per
    |> > hour or per trip - I don't know what the more accurate figures are.
    |>
    |> Given that the figures quoted were for utility/transport it seems
    |> reasonable to use a per km measurement rather than time - exposure time is
    |> very relevent when measuring risk.

    No, it isn't. That assumes that people do exactly the same trips by
    the different methods, and that is not so. It is common for a walker
    to use a much shorter route, for example - either because there is a
    shorter pedestrian-only route or because the longer one is better for
    cycling.

    The best comparison is for comparable trips, but that is rarely
    presented. Also, walking, cycling and driving are only partially
    interchangeable.

    |> >|> As London
    |> >|> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on the
    |> >|> roads, other road users will both expect them and learn to interact
    |> >|> safely with them.
    |> >
    |> > Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.
    |>
    |> Interesting. Can you point me to some figures?

    Look for the survey on www.camcycle.org, and the assault and related
    figures in that. Also the number of Cambridge cyclists who report
    serious assaults (which does not necessarily mean contact) by drivers
    is high (on this group, I mean).

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  11. Quoted message said:

    |> > Which, based on the usual speed ratio, is nearly 3 times the rate
    |> > per hour or per trip - I don't know what the more accurate figures
    |> > are.
    |>
    |> Given that the figures quoted were for utility/transport it seems
    |> reasonable to use a per km measurement rather than time - exposure
    |> time is very relevent when measuring risk.

    No, it isn't. That assumes that people do exactly the same trips by
    the different methods, and that is not so. It is common for a walker
    to use a much shorter route, for example - either because there is a
    shorter pedestrian-only route or because the longer one is better for
    cycling.

    So if it's common for walkers to use pedestrian only routes and they
    STILL get KSI-d more (per km) then it's worse than you think!

    Quoted message said:

    The best comparison is for comparable trips, but that is rarely
    presented. Also, walking, cycling and driving are only partially
    interchangeable.

    |> >|> As London
    |> >|> has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists on
    |> >|> the roads, other road users will both expect them and learn to
    |> >|> interact safely with them.
    |> >
    |> > Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.
    |>
    |> Interesting. Can you point me to some figures?

    Look for the survey on www.camcycle.org, and the assault and related
    figures in that. Also the number of Cambridge cyclists who report
    serious assaults (which does not necessarily mean contact) by drivers
    is high (on this group, I mean).

    A quick search didn't turn anything up on <www.camcycle.org.uk>, though
    I'm sure it's there somewhere. Was it a self-selecting survey? That'd
    not be terribly representative. I suspect your definition of serious
    assault is at odds with mine - I would prolly consider a serious assault
    to involve some sort of contact! The figures we've got for London are
    all about the KSI rate, which -IIRC- has plummeted.

  12. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Mark Thompson <pleasegivegenerously@warmmail*_turn_up_the_heat_to_reply*.com> writes:
    |> >
    |> > No, it isn't. That assumes that people do exactly the same trips by
    |> > the different methods, and that is not so. It is common for a walker
    |> > to use a much shorter route, for example - either because there is a
    |> > shorter pedestrian-only route or because the longer one is better for
    |> > cycling.
    |>
    |> So if it's common for walkers to use pedestrian only routes and they
    |> STILL get KSI-d more (per km) then it's worse than you think!

    Shorter does not mean pedestrian-only. Either way along a one-way
    street, or through a closed section, are examples.

    |> A quick search didn't turn anything up on <www.camcycle.org.uk>, though
    |> I'm sure it's there somewhere. Was it a self-selecting survey? That'd
    |> not be terribly representative. I suspect your definition of serious
    |> assault is at odds with mine - I would prolly consider a serious assault
    |> to involve some sort of contact! The figures we've got for London are
    |> all about the KSI rate, which -IIRC- has plummeted.

    http://www.camcycle.org.uk/newsletters/65/article12.html

    I would consider it to be either that, or one that was clearly
    deliberate and had a significant chance of causing KSI if it
    went slightly wrong.

    Those were a minority of the assaults, but a large minority, as
    I predicted.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  13. Nick Maclaren wrote on 30/04/2007 10:37 +0100:

    Quoted message said:


    http://www.camcycle.org.uk/newsletters/65/article12.html

    Interesting that Trumpington Road was considered the third most
    comfortable place to cycle given your views on it.

    --
    Tony

    "The most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there
    is no good evidence either way."
    - Bertrand Russell

  14. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Tony Raven <[email hidden]> writes:
    |> Nick Maclaren wrote on 30/04/2007 10:37 +0100:
    |> >
    |> > http://www.camcycle.org.uk/newsletters/65/article12.html
    |>
    |> Interesting that Trumpington Road was considered the third most
    |> comfortable place to cycle given your views on it.

    Sigh. Firstly, it is THE main artery feeding Cambridge from the
    commuter belt, and therefore has much the largest number of users
    and potential users. Secondly, there is a major selection effect.
    Let's ignore the other reasons.

    I know more cyclists who have refused to join the Cambridge Cycling
    Campaign because they regard it as being dominated by pavement and
    gutter cyclists than who are members. And there are a significant
    number of others who won't join as they believe that it is only for
    cycling fanatics. Given that, how representative is its membership?

    If you were to take a look at it, dispassionately, you might well
    wonder about the people who said that they were most comfortable
    with that route. I believe that its northbound route is the most
    sub-standard psycle farcility in Cambridge - based on measurable
    facts, not mere opinion.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  15. Nick Maclaren wrote on 30/04/2007 11:32 +0100:

    Quoted message said:


    Sigh. Firstly, it is THE main artery feeding Cambridge from the
    commuter belt, and therefore has much the largest number of users
    and potential users. Secondly, there is a major selection effect.
    Let's ignore the other reasons.

    I know more cyclists who have refused to join the Cambridge Cycling
    Campaign because they regard it as being dominated by pavement and
    gutter cyclists than who are members. And there are a significant
    number of others who won't join as they believe that it is only for
    cycling fanatics. Given that, how representative is its membership?

    If you were to take a look at it, dispassionately, you might well
    wonder about the people who said that they were most comfortable
    with that route. I believe that its northbound route is the most
    sub-standard psycle farcility in Cambridge - based on measurable
    facts, not mere opinion.

    So not a survey to place any reliance on in your opinion. So do you
    have any reliable data that shows cycling in Cambridge to be more
    dangerous than the national average?

    --
    Tony

    "The most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there
    is no good evidence either way."
    - Bertrand Russell

  16. In news:[email hidden],
    Tony Raven <[email hidden]> tweaked the Babbage-Engine to tell
    us:

    Quoted message said:

    Nick Maclaren wrote on 30/04/2007 10:37 +0100:

    Quoted message said:


    http://www.camcycle.org.uk/newsletters/65/article12.html

    Interesting that Trumpington Road was considered the third most
    comfortable place to cycle given your views on it.

    I happened to ride along part of this yesterday, and it appeared to my
    London-attuned eyes to be a lot better than some of the roads I was obliged
    to use while going to work...

    --
    Dave Larrington
    <http://www.legslarry.beerdrinkers.co.uk>
    May you have an accident shaped like an umbrella.

  17. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Tony Raven <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> So not a survey to place any reliance on in your opinion. So do you
    |> have any reliable data that shows cycling in Cambridge to be more
    |> dangerous than the national average?

    Sigh. You are misquoting AGAIN. I have never claimed that, in
    the extremely general form you have stated it.

    It is you who have implied (indeed, almost claimed) that it is much
    SAFER than the national average, because of the increased awareness
    of bicycles by drivers. Why don't you provide your evidence first,
    and stop demanding that I provide evidence for your straw men?

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  18. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Mark Thompson <pleasegivegenerously@warmmail*_turn_up_the_heat_to_reply*.com> writes:
    |> >
    |> > Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.
    |>
    |> Interesting. Can you point me to some figures?

    The 2006 casualty and monitoring reports have just been published.

    206 cyclist and 61 pedestrian casualties for Cambridge urban < 40 MPH.
    19,247 and 21,512 cyclists and pedestrians crossing the River Cam
    screenline and 6,084 and 2,402 crossing the radial cordon. Both
    (for different reasons) have a higher proportion of cyclists than
    many other areas of Cambridge. So, all in all, let's assume the
    numbers are comparable.

    Even if one assumed that the total number of miles cycled in the
    city is 4 times that of the number walked, cycling has 84% of the
    casualty rate of walking. That is HIGHER than the national average,
    not lower as would be expected using Tony Raven's claims.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

  19. In message <[email hidden]>

    (Nick Maclaren) said:


    In article <[email hidden]>,
    Mark Thompson <pleasegivegenerously@warmmail*_turn_up_the_heat_to_reply*.com> writes:
    |> >
    |> > Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.
    |>
    |> Interesting. Can you point me to some figures?

    The 2006 casualty and monitoring reports have just been published.

    206 cyclist and 61 pedestrian casualties for Cambridge urban < 40 MPH.
    19,247 and 21,512 cyclists and pedestrians crossing the River Cam
    screenline and 6,084 and 2,402 crossing the radial cordon. Both
    (for different reasons) have a higher proportion of cyclists than
    many other areas of Cambridge. So, all in all, let's assume the
    numbers are comparable.

    Even if one assumed that the total number of miles cycled in the
    city is 4 times that of the number walked, cycling has 84% of the
    casualty rate of walking. That is HIGHER than the national average,
    not lower as would be expected using Tony Raven's claims.

    You're assuming that the casualty rate for walking ih Cambridge is
    similar to tha national average?

    It is also possible that both the casualty rate for walking and for
    cycling is different to the national average. Without having the figures
    expressed as absolute risk rather than your estimate of relative risk
    it is difficult to judge.

    However I can think of potential contributing factors that might result
    in an increase in accident rates for cyclists. Cambridge has a very high
    percentage of inexperienced cyclists, particularly at the start of the
    academic year, and also from the many language schools, and other short
    term visitors and tourists who might be tempted to hire bicycles. I
    wonder what percentage of cycling and pedestrian accidents happen to
    short term visitors, students, or to long term residents?

    Mike
    --
    o/ \\ // |\ ,_ o Mike Clark
    <\__,\\ // __o | \ / /\, "A mountain climbing, cycling, skiing,
    "> || _`\<,_ |__\ \> | immunology lecturer, antibody engineer and
    ` || (_)/ (_) | \corn computer user"

  20. In article <[email hidden]>,
    Mike Clark <[email hidden]> writes:
    |>
    |> You're assuming that the casualty rate for walking ih Cambridge is
    |> similar to tha national average?

    Actually, no. I am merely pointing out that the statistics confirm
    my response to Tony Raven's claim:

    |> As London has demonstrated in recent years, if you get more cyclists
    |> on the roads, other road users will both expect them and learn to
    |> interact safely with them.

    Cambridge's experience does not confirm that.

    |> It is also possible that both the casualty rate for walking and for
    |> cycling is different to the national average. Without having the figures
    |> expressed as absolute risk rather than your estimate of relative risk
    |> it is difficult to judge.

    Indeed. Now, would you like to try to extract any useful data out of
    the County Council? :-)

    |> However I can think of potential contributing factors that might result
    |> in an increase in accident rates for cyclists. ...

    Quite. I really do not have a clue of whether the accident rate or
    the overall incident rate is higher or lower in Cambridge as a whole
    or the rest of the country. I have never stated that it was. What
    I have said is that the assault rate relative to the accident rate,
    for competent and careful cyclists, is higher than in most places.
    And, for some cyclists and some routes (and especially for some
    cyclists ON some routes), that ratio is vastly higher - especially
    for the most serious incidents.

    Regards,
    Nick Maclaren.

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