Good route as always from the Dauphine. First stage is a slightly longer TT than normal, first 3km is a climb at about 4.7% so prologue specialists may suffer in favour of a longer distance TTer who can climb well.
Stages two and three are for the sprinters, break will go away get caught etc. Guess you gotta give the fast twitch brigade a chance now and then.
Stage 4, TT similar to the last TT in this years TdF. Uphill sections but not very steep. Time gaps should be too big and no one will want to be tired before:
Stage 5, Mont Ventoux! Enough said really. Whoever wins on the giant will be making a big statement for the TdF.
Stage 6, Col d'Izoard will see all the pretenders being dropped. Someone could easily attack over the top and descend like a bomb. The last kilometer is uphill (this finish was used in the Giro two years ago I think). Small time gaps between those who are still in the race.
Stage 7, 4000m of climbing. Galibier from the easier side to warm everyone up, the beast that is the Croix de Fer and then two thirds of the way up the Col de Madeleine to finish. Pure pain. Big gaps.
Stage 8, not too challenging. Break will probably go away. GC contenders will have to be attentive but shouldn't be challenged.
For me the contenders are as follows (no particular order): Valverde/Pereiro, Evans/Dekker, Gesink, Contador, Gerdemann, Basso, Nibali, Cobo.
I'm going to go with Contador with the win. He won't want to push himself too hard ahead of the TdF but I don't think he'll have to go that hard to take the win here given the two tough mountain stages where he should easily drop his opponents.