could i have a future in this sport?

Topography and wind makes outdoor speeds very subjective. If you could get an estimate of your FTP watts per kg you could see where you are on the power profile chart.

cyclingpeakssoftware.compowerprofile v4.gifOpen ↗

If you have a Kurt Kinetic Road Machine
1upusa.comkurtkinetictrainer.htmOpen ↗
you can get a fairly accurate estimate from a speed to power chart like this. I road for an hour on the KKR at 19.8mph=252watts FTP. 252/89kg=2.83w/kg

17mph=183.33w
17.1mph=185.53w
17.2mph=187.74w
17.3mph=189.98w
17.4mph=192.23w
17.5mph=194.51w
17.6mph=196.80w
17.7mph=199.12w
17.8mph=201.46w
17.9mph=203.81w
18mph=206.19w
18.1mph=208.59w
18.2mph=211.01w
18.3mph=213.45w
18.4mph=215.91w
18.5mph=218.39w
18.6mph=220.89w
18.7mph=223.42w
18.8mph=225.96w
18.9mph=228.53w
19mph=231.12w
19.1mph=233.73w
19.2mph=236.36w
19.3mph=239.02w
19.4mph=241.70w
19.5mph=244.40w
19.6mph=247.12w
19.7mph=249.86w
19.8mph=252.63w......My FTP
19.9mph=255.42w
20mph=258.24w
20.1mph=261.07w
20.2mph=263.93w
20.3mph=266.81w
20.4mph=269.72w
20.5mph=272.65w
20.6mph=275.60w
20.7mph=278.58w
20.8mph=281.58w
20.9mph=284.60w
21mph=287.65w
21.1mph=290.72w
21.2mph=293.82w
21.3mph=296.94w
21.4mph=300.09w
21.5mph=303.26w
21.6mph=306.45w
21.7mph=309.67w
21.8mph=312.92w
21.9mph=316.19w
22mph=319.48w
22.1mph=322.80w
22.2mph=326.15w
22.3mph=329.52w
22.4mph=332.92w
22.5mph=336.34w
22.6mph=339.79w
22.7mph=343.26w
22.8mph=346.76w
22.9mph=350.29w
23mph=353.84w
23.1mph=357.42w
23.2mph=361.03w
23.3mph=364.66w
23.4mph=368.32w
23.5mph=372.01w
23.6mph=375.72w
23.7mph=379.46w
23.8mph=383.23w
23.9mph=387.03w
24mph=390.85w
24.1mph=394.70w
24.2mph=398.58w
24.3mph=402.48w
24.4mph=406.42w
24.5mph=410.38w
24.6mph=414.37w
24.7mph=418.39w
24.8mph=422.44w
24.9mph=426.51w
25mph=430.62w
25.1mph=434.75w......Lance Armstrong FTP maybe
25.2mph=438.91w
25.3mph=443.10w
25.4mph=447.32w
25.5mph=451.57w
25.6mph=455.85w
25.7mph=460.16w
25.8mph=464.49w
25.9mph=468.86w
26mph=473.26w

Taylor S said:

Hi everyone. this is my first time posting. well here is my question: could i have a possible future in this sport. i've been riding for about six months now i want to start racing. here's some info about my self. i'm 15 and i'm 5'9" 135 lbs. and other then cycling i run track and play soccer. on a 20 mile ride i can average 17-20 mph and my top speed is around 32-33 mph on a sprint. i ride about 130-150 miles a week and i was wondering if i should start racing or hold off a while.
thanks for the replies

I think that before you blind with science and talk of W/kg, some words of encouragement would be more suitable.

Everybody has a future in cycling. It's great fun, you meet so many different types of people all united by their love of the bike and you get pretty fit to boot. And you can see some wonderful sights out on the road, especially if you take a bike on holiday to some traditional cycling heartlands ie France, Belgium or Italy.

Once you get involved in cycling, it never leaves you. You'll probably be out riding when you're 70 years old.

I think what the poster meant was: will he or she be a good rider? Well, that's up to you and your approach. You can have the physical talents of a Tour de France winner but the mental fortitude of a chicken. Or you could be physically average but have a will of iron. The former will get you a long way, the latter will make you a legend. If you have both, the history books are there waiting for your name.

Go to your local bike shop and ask about a club, then approach the club and ask for advice about getting into local races. Don't go in expecting to win at the first outing, expect to get a real kicking and suffer a lot. But it is - perversely - fun to do races and pretend to be a pro.

And seek advice. If I knew as a junior what I know now (I'm 37) I'm sure I would've done a lot better. If you can find a knowledgeable rider or even a coach, you'll go much further than by just going out and smashing yourself to bits thinking it's good training.

A heart rate monitor or - even better - a power meter will be of immense help. They're pricey but worth it, although you do need to know what to do with them. These forums will provide you with immense help.

Above all, have fun doing it. If you're not enjoying your bike, you won't keep riding. If you keep riding regularly, there's no end to the progress you can make.

Have fun!

Taylor S said:

.........i've been riding for about six months now i want to start racing.

Taylor,

Have you gone and watched any of the races in your area? Do you know any 14-18 year olds who race? Are there local races that you know about in July and August that you and your bike could get to?

So yes, you should get yourself into a race or two this summer. I don't know if you are in the US or not, but you should be able to find some time trials and races this summer with small junior fields to try things out. If you are in the US, have you taken a look at the TrueSport Event Calender? Have you been on some group rides with at least 5-10 other riders?

If you can get a race or two under your belt this summer, you'll start next season knowing quite a bit more about the game.

Tell us a little bit more in response to the questions above and we can give you better help and suggestions.

Taylor S said:

Hi everyone. this is my first time posting. well here is my question: could i have a possible future in this sport. i've been riding for about six months now i want to start racing. here's some info about my self. i'm 15 and i'm 5'9" 135 lbs. and other then cycling i run track and play soccer. on a 20 mile ride i can average 17-20 mph and my top speed is around 32-33 mph on a sprint. i ride about 130-150 miles a week and i was wondering if i should start racing or hold off a while.
thanks for the replies

a lot of answers you might find here will blind you with silly talk of FT and w/kg. Ignore that for now. Some guys get way too into numbers and it's easy to get caught up in that. I imagine you want to race, so don't go down the obsessive solitary indoor FTP training route....get out and ride some races!

Don't bother with an indoor trainer - it's summer now anyway.

do 2 things - 1) find a club - join it. start racing as soon as you can. at first it will be really hard, and possibly frightening. it will get easier though. Everyone is blown away at first.

2) Enjoy your riding - don't overdo it. At your age you shouldn't be riding more than 8-10 hours a week, or more than 2 hours in any one session. At your age with your athletic background and your apparent ability (based on the speeds you mention) you will improve rapidly, and you don't need to be riding rigidly structured interval sessions or using a power meter etc. Just mix up your rides - try mixing up your speeds and intensities - some sprints, some 1 minute top speed efforts, some 5 minute hard efforts, and some 20 minute all out rides. try and keep your cadence (pedal rpm) high - don't make the beginners mistake of riding in too heavy a gear - spin at least 90 rpm, and for your faster efforts try and get up to 110.

Make sure you take at least one day off riding a week, and at least one real gentle ride of short duration. every other week take 2 days off. you'll only get fitter when you rest after some hard training.

Find a good community club with a certified cycling coach and go ride and have fun! Don't worry about any of the numbers you see above.

Taylor S said:

Hi everyone. this is my first time posting. well here is my question: could i have a possible future in this sport. i've been riding for about six months now i want to start racing. here's some info about my self. i'm 15 and i'm 5'9" 135 lbs. and other then cycling i run track and play soccer. on a 20 mile ride i can average 17-20 mph and my top speed is around 32-33 mph on a sprint. i ride about 130-150 miles a week and i was wondering if i should start racing or hold off a while.
thanks for the replies

Depends on where you live and how motivated you are. If you live in an area where you cant compete in a sanctioned race at least twice a week, you can forget about making it to cat. 1 or 2 in the next couple years.

You cant possibly know a certain "potential" without going into a lab and having tests run on you. I cant see the point of this unless you have been racing atleast a few years and are a good rider... Its better to give racing a try for a couple full seasons with a good club/ team atmosphere to really see if its something you can enjoy as a primary hobby. At 16 or 17 you will start to be able to do longer training rides. I knew a junior who could do 6 hr rides at that age. Probably not so smart though...

Don't worry about any lab tests. Go find a coach and a club!

thanks for all the replies. i think im going to try to find a club to ride with now.
anyone know any good ones in cental california?

Taylor S said:

.........i think im going to try to find a club to ride with now. anyone know any good ones in cental california?

Take a look at this list at USA Cycling of Current Clubs In California. Contact information is provided. Good luck!

wiredued said:

Topography and wind makes outdoor speeds very subjective. If you could get an estimate of your FTP watts per kg you could see where you are on the power profile chart.

cyclingpeakssoftware.compowerprofile v4.gifOpen ↗

If you have a Kurt Kinetic Road Machine
1upusa.comkurtkinetictrainer.htmOpen ↗
you can get a fairly accurate estimate from a speed to power chart like this. I road for an hour on the KKR at 19.8mph=252watts FTP. 252/89kg=2.83w/kg

17mph=183.33w
17.1mph=185.53w
17.2mph=187.74w
17.3mph=189.98w
17.4mph=192.23w
17.5mph=194.51w
17.6mph=196.80w
17.7mph=199.12w
17.8mph=201.46w
17.9mph=203.81w
18mph=206.19w
18.1mph=208.59w
18.2mph=211.01w
18.3mph=213.45w
18.4mph=215.91w
18.5mph=218.39w
18.6mph=220.89w
18.7mph=223.42w
18.8mph=225.96w
18.9mph=228.53w
19mph=231.12w
19.1mph=233.73w
19.2mph=236.36w
19.3mph=239.02w
19.4mph=241.70w
19.5mph=244.40w
19.6mph=247.12w
19.7mph=249.86w
19.8mph=252.63w......My FTP
19.9mph=255.42w
20mph=258.24w
20.1mph=261.07w
20.2mph=263.93w
20.3mph=266.81w
20.4mph=269.72w
20.5mph=272.65w
20.6mph=275.60w
20.7mph=278.58w
20.8mph=281.58w
20.9mph=284.60w
21mph=287.65w
21.1mph=290.72w
21.2mph=293.82w
21.3mph=296.94w
21.4mph=300.09w
21.5mph=303.26w
21.6mph=306.45w
21.7mph=309.67w
21.8mph=312.92w
21.9mph=316.19w
22mph=319.48w
22.1mph=322.80w
22.2mph=326.15w
22.3mph=329.52w
22.4mph=332.92w
22.5mph=336.34w
22.6mph=339.79w
22.7mph=343.26w
22.8mph=346.76w
22.9mph=350.29w
23mph=353.84w
23.1mph=357.42w
23.2mph=361.03w
23.3mph=364.66w
23.4mph=368.32w
23.5mph=372.01w
23.6mph=375.72w
23.7mph=379.46w
23.8mph=383.23w
23.9mph=387.03w
24mph=390.85w
24.1mph=394.70w
24.2mph=398.58w
24.3mph=402.48w
24.4mph=406.42w
24.5mph=410.38w
24.6mph=414.37w
24.7mph=418.39w
24.8mph=422.44w
24.9mph=426.51w
25mph=430.62w
25.1mph=434.75w......Lance Armstrong FTP maybe
25.2mph=438.91w
25.3mph=443.10w
25.4mph=447.32w
25.5mph=451.57w
25.6mph=455.85w
25.7mph=460.16w
25.8mph=464.49w
25.9mph=468.86w
26mph=473.26w

According to this i have a W/kg of 4.88 and that was only my 6th ride but that number places me at CAT 1 for FT, am i doing something wrong here? I have averaged 21mph for an hour, and i weight about 130 pounds which is 58.97 kg. I am a runner if that helps so its not like i just jumped on the bike with no previous training and did this. Im 18 and have run for almost 4 years now.

mnizz said:

According to this i have a W/kg of 4.88 and that was only my 6th ride but that number places me at CAT 1 for FT, am i doing something wrong here? I have averaged 21mph for an hour, and i weight about 130 pounds which is 58.97 kg. I am a runner if that helps so its not like i just jumped on the bike with no previous training and did this. Im 18 and have run for almost 4 years now.

The chart shown is only valid for a ride on a properly setup Kurt Kinetic Trainer.
Did you average 21 mph for an hour outside? or on the KK?

I averaged it outside so it prob different then.

mnizz said:

I averaged it outside so it prob different then.

Yeah among other things the KK is calibrated to simulate climbing a 1% grade. That doesn't sound like much but it forces you to put out a lot more power for the same speed.

mnizz said:

I averaged it outside so it prob different then.

The wattage to do 21mph on a normal flat to rolling road with neutral wind is about cat. 3/4 or 5 fitness level depending on terrain and your position on the bicycle. Typical cat. 1 riders can hold 30 mph for a 90 minute crit going around corners. Pros can hold 30+ for 4-6 hours. Typical winning time in a flat state 40k (24.9 mile) TT is around 48:00. Lance Armstrong rode a Long 35 mile TT at 33 mph in the Tour 2000. Add hills and average speed drops dramaticaly. Floyd Landis averaged nearly 24 mph in his long stage 17 break in the Tour last year, 80 miles by himself over 3 large mountains and several smaller 5-10 min. climbs... He had assistance though from his team and then a large breakaway he caught, but still...

-Fastest speed in a tour stage: 31.05 mph, over 122 miles, '99, Cippo

-Milan San Remo, about 182 miles, has been run off at 29mph...

🙂 I like speed.

Thats crazy, i have a long way to go then lol. Thanks for the help, i knew something was wrong there lol.

It looks like you have an exciting future in cycling to look forward to!! Good luck!!
I also have a question for Wiredued. I have a kurt kinetic and use my cateye computer to track my speed. Is that also accurate with your wattage chart or do you have to use the kurt computer??

Sorry to butt in!!

wiredued said:

Topography and wind makes outdoor speeds very subjective. If you could get an estimate of your FTP watts per kg you could see where you are on the power profile chart.

cyclingpeakssoftware.compowerprofile v4.gifOpen ↗

If you have a Kurt Kinetic Road Machine
1upusa.comkurtkinetictrainer.htmOpen ↗
you can get a fairly accurate estimate from a speed to power chart like this. I road for an hour on the KKR at 19.8mph=252watts FTP. 252/89kg=2.83w/kg

17mph=183.33w
17.1mph=185.53w
17.2mph=187.74w
17.3mph=189.98w
17.4mph=192.23w
17.5mph=194.51w
17.6mph=196.80w
17.7mph=199.12w
17.8mph=201.46w
17.9mph=203.81w
18mph=206.19w
18.1mph=208.59w
18.2mph=211.01w
18.3mph=213.45w
18.4mph=215.91w
18.5mph=218.39w
18.6mph=220.89w
18.7mph=223.42w
18.8mph=225.96w
18.9mph=228.53w
19mph=231.12w
19.1mph=233.73w
19.2mph=236.36w
19.3mph=239.02w
19.4mph=241.70w
19.5mph=244.40w
19.6mph=247.12w
19.7mph=249.86w
19.8mph=252.63w......My FTP
19.9mph=255.42w
20mph=258.24w
20.1mph=261.07w
20.2mph=263.93w
20.3mph=266.81w
20.4mph=269.72w
20.5mph=272.65w
20.6mph=275.60w
20.7mph=278.58w
20.8mph=281.58w
20.9mph=284.60w
21mph=287.65w
21.1mph=290.72w
21.2mph=293.82w
21.3mph=296.94w
21.4mph=300.09w
21.5mph=303.26w
21.6mph=306.45w
21.7mph=309.67w
21.8mph=312.92w
21.9mph=316.19w
22mph=319.48w
22.1mph=322.80w
22.2mph=326.15w
22.3mph=329.52w
22.4mph=332.92w
22.5mph=336.34w
22.6mph=339.79w
22.7mph=343.26w
22.8mph=346.76w
22.9mph=350.29w
23mph=353.84w
23.1mph=357.42w
23.2mph=361.03w
23.3mph=364.66w
23.4mph=368.32w
23.5mph=372.01w
23.6mph=375.72w
23.7mph=379.46w
23.8mph=383.23w
23.9mph=387.03w
24mph=390.85w
24.1mph=394.70w
24.2mph=398.58w
24.3mph=402.48w
24.4mph=406.42w
24.5mph=410.38w
24.6mph=414.37w
24.7mph=418.39w
24.8mph=422.44w
24.9mph=426.51w
25mph=430.62w
25.1mph=434.75w......Lance Armstrong FTP maybe
25.2mph=438.91w
25.3mph=443.10w
25.4mph=447.32w
25.5mph=451.57w
25.6mph=455.85w
25.7mph=460.16w
25.8mph=464.49w
25.9mph=468.86w
26mph=473.26w