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UK and Europe
Published
26 November 2007
Last activity
24 January 2008
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squeaker
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  1. "wafflycat" <w*a*ff£y£cat*@£btco*nn£ect.com> wrote

    [snip]

    Quoted message said:


    This is something I cannot fathom - the assumption that those of us
    who cycle and are passionate about it apparently don't drive cars.
    Which is a load of tosh. Like many of the regular posters to urc, I
    walk, I cycle and I drive. Don't ride a horse though 🙂 I love
    being out on my bike. I thoroughly enjoy driving too. Walking isn't
    bad either

    Well, in inner London you do have a better chance than average of
    finding people who do not drive, and even people who never have.
    It's the same in Manhattan,of course. There's a certain amount of
    incomprehension and hostility towards motorists evident within the
    London Cycling Campaign (LCC). There are also people who do not
    particularly like bikes, but are in favour of them just because they
    don't like cars, and see bikes, no matter how unpleasant and
    dangerous they may be, as the only possible substitute.

    Mind you, I'm a member of the Barnet branch of the LCC. Barnet is
    an outer London borough - the green belt starts at the bottom of my
    garden. The Barnet LCC has never done a survey, but it's fairly
    obvious that a substantial majority of our members own cars.

    The question is, are cars owned by cyclists different from the
    average car. I think they might be. I've seen it estimated that
    about half the cost of a car is tied up with the status symbol
    aspects of it. Since cyclists tend not to look on their cars as
    status symbols, they tend not to spend that half of the money, and so
    get their motoring at half the price it costs a "real" motorist.

    Jeremy Parker

  2. Don Whybrow said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    It's not a competition, though: it's a comparison.  Walking is an
    acceptable risk (in fact, it's probably not an activity you thought of
    as risky at all) - oh, look, so is cycling.

    Quoted message said:

    Having been on the board of trustees of the Pedestrians' Assn/.Living
    Streets for 5 years until a couple of years ago, you may rest assured
    that it did not need the correspondents on this site to draw the risk
    of walking to my attention.

    Feck'n'ek!

    --
    Don Whybrow

    Sequi Bonum Non Time

    "There is a wicked pretense that one has been informed. But no
    such thing has truly occurred! A mere slogan, an empty litany.
    No arguments are heard, no evidence is weighed. It isn't news at
    all, only a source of amusement for idlers." (Gibson-Sterling,
    The Difference Engine)

    Whybrow? or Why bother?

  3. In article <[email hidden]>,

    Quoted message said:

    LAB 96 WA 94 LAW 74
    Major w/o bike facilities 0.66 0.75 1.00
    Minor w/o bike facilities 0.94 0.98 0.92
    Signed bike route only (BR) 0.51 N/A N/A
    On-street bike lanes (BL) 0.41 N/A N/A
    On-street bike fac (BR or BL) N/A 0.54 0.53

    These numbers are not very convincing to me. The chief reason I find
    to be sceptical is that the differences are not very great - a claimed
    risk difference of 1.3 to 1.9. If these studies had a very sound
    methodology, large sample sizes for the relevant data, and were very
    carefully controlled then one might very cautiously draw some
    conclusions from these kind of numbers. However, that's not the case.

    Taking the most recent attempt at data collection in the actual Moritz
    paper:

    This study involved sending out a survey to members of the League of
    American Bicyclists. The study relies entirely on self-reporting of
    both accidents and distances ridden on various kinds of road. As a
    result it is almost impossible to control well for confounding factors
    such as other properties of the roads or riders; it seems to me that
    these kind of things could easily cause errors of a factor of 2-5 in
    the final answers. At least 13.5% of the responses reported figures
    which were internally inconsistent with errors of 40% or more (these
    were discarded for the study but it shows how unreliable the data is).

    As an example of a reason to be sceptical about the conclusions drawn
    from this data, there appears to be no explanation for the reported
    result of the Moritz study that (of roads with no bike facilities)
    major roads are 1.4x safer. Across the three reported studies the
    comparative safety of major and minor roads varies by a factor of
    between 0.92 and 1.4.

    Most of the riding and the vast proportion of the accidents were
    recreational riding and/or on off-road trails. The bike routes, bike
    lanes and `multi-use trails' are each 6-7% of the total reported
    distance in the Moritz dataset (comment in the `About Their Cycling'
    section, 4th paragraph). This means that the `relative danger
    indices' are in fact calculated from very small samples:

    From Table 4 of Moritz and the 6-7% remark I calculate that the total
    distance on each of these types facilities was around 640,000km. The
    estimated crash rate of 26 per million km (for bike lanes) seems thus
    to have been based on a total of only approximately 16 crashes of
    which only about 8 were `serious' (defined AFAICT as causing more than
    $50 of damage).

    Also, note that the summary table covers all crashes. If we attempt
    to reconstruct data for `serious' crashes from the first half of Table
    4 and 5 we get something like this:

    Serious Minor

    Quoted message said:

    Major w/o bike facilities 0.41 0.24
    Minor w/o bike facilities 0.46 0.48
    Signed bike route only (BR) 0.4 0.1
    On-street bike lanes (BL) 0.3 0.1


    (normalised only within each column)

    (The latter two lines have only one significant figure because I've
    had to reconstruct them from single-digit percentages.)

    --
    Ian Jackson personal email: <[email hidden]>
    These opinions are my own. http://www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~ijackson/
    PGP2 key 1024R/0x23f5addb, fingerprint 5906F687 BD03ACAD 0D8E602E FCF37657

  4. "Jeremy Parker" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    snippity...

    Quoted message said:


    The question is, are cars owned by cyclists different from the average
    car. I think they might be. I've seen it estimated that about half the
    cost of a car is tied up with the status symbol aspects of it. Since
    cyclists tend not to look on their cars as status symbols, they tend not
    to spend that half of the money, and so get their motoring at half the
    price it costs a "real" motorist.

    Jeremy Parker

    Well I do drive a Merc. Albeit a very little Merc, but I do love my Herman
    the German.

  5. On Jan 22, 4:29 pm, "wafflycat" <w*a*ff£y£cat*@£btco*nn£ect.com>

    Quoted message said:

    "Jeremy Parker" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

    news:[email hidden]...

    snippity...

    Quoted message said:

    The question is, are cars owned by cyclists different from the average
    car.  I think they might be.  I've seen it estimated that about halfthe
    cost of a car is tied up with the status symbol aspects of it.  Since
    cyclists tend not to look on their cars as status symbols, they tend not
    to spend that half of the money, and so get their motoring at half the
    price it costs a "real" motorist.

    Quoted message said:

    Jeremy Parker

    Well I do drive a Merc. Albeit a very little Merc, but I do love my Herman
    the German.

    What emotions to you attach to the pollution and carbon it emits?
    Paul Gannon

  6. Quoted message said:
    Don Whybrow said:

    Don Whybrow


    Whybrow? or Why bother?

    How original, never hear that one before.

    So, do you understand the difference between absolutes and comparisons yet?

    --
    Don Whybrow

    Sequi Bonum Non Time

    Give your child mental blocks for Christmas.

  7. Quoted message said:

    On Jan 22, 4:29 pm, "wafflycat" <w*a*ff£y£cat*@£btco*nn£ect.com>

    Quoted message said:

    "Jeremy Parker" <[email hidden]> wrote in message


    Since

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    cyclists tend not to look on their cars as status symbols, they tend not
    to spend that half of the money, and so get their motoring at half the
    price it costs a "real" motorist.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Well I do drive a Merc. Albeit a very little Merc, but I do love my Herman
    the German.

    What emotions to you attach to the pollution and carbon it emits?

    As the owner of a 1998 Mercedes C180 Elegance, I would prefer the car to
    have lower emissions but I find it no less economical than my previous
    car, a 1998 Renault Mégane 1.6e. I wonder whether this has to do with
    its automatic gearbox encouraging a, shall we say, sedate driving style.

    I don't see the car as a status symbol: it cost me the same amount in
    2006 as the Mégane had cost in 2003 and vastly less than most of my
    colleagues' cars. Nothing has, fingers crossed, yet broken on the Merc
    whereas the Mégane cost me on average GBP600 a year in parts. I wonder
    whether the longer average life of a Mercedes goes some way towards
    reducing the actual pollution caused by the vehicle over its life.

    Cheers,
    Luke

    --
    Red Rose Ramblings, the diary of an Essex boy in
    exile in Lancashire <http://www.shrimper.org.uk>

  8. Mark T <pleasegivegenerously@warmail*turn_up_the_heat_to_reply*.com.invalid>

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    > Please address messages to the group rather than individuals.

    It was a question to Paul.

    So send an email.

    Please stop being a twit.

    I'm not the one sending personal messages over Usenet.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    At least in the LAW one, it's very selective quoting bordering on
    misrepresentation. I wonder whether the less publicly-verifiable ones
    are similarly resummarised.

    Could you give a little more detail? So far the criticism of Franklin's
    work has been too general and unspecific.

    (I'm assuming you were referring to this one):
    <www.bikexprt.com/research/kaplan/recom.htm>

    Compare Franklin's summary:-

    National survey of LAW members.
    Cycle paths 292 accidents per million cycle miles, against 104 for minor
    roads and 111 for major roads.

    with typical statements from the abstract:-

    As cycling experience increased, accident involvement appeared to
    decrease dramatically: About one out of every 17 subjects was involved
    in a collision or serious fail. that required professional medical
    treatment. Bicycle accident rates appear to be about twice as high as
    motor vehicle accident rates; age, sex, and years of experience of the
    bicycle rider all are influential on the rate. The data also suggest
    that safety conscious individuals (those wearing helmets, using rear
    view mirrors, and always obeying laws) are involved in less accidents
    than others.

    It's a very different spin. Also, the study explicitly states about
    the off-road facilities in there:-

    It should be noted that less than 25 percent of the respondents (N=705,
    N=663) reported any travel at all on special bicycle facilities including
    bicycle routes, lanes, or separate pathways. This travel amounted to less
    than 7 percent of the total miles traveled by all respondents. [...]

    and:-

    Off-street bicycle facilities (that do not allow motor vehicle traffic)
    showed the highest overall accident rate, and also an extremely high
    serious accident rate. [...] No explanation is known for this finding. A
    guess might be that cyclists use less caution on this type facility,
    feeling it is free of the menacing motor vehicle only to collide with
    a tree or fall on some slippery gravel. Coincidentally, the lowest
    accident rate existed for both the categories of all accidents and
    serious accidents when those incidents that occurred on bikelanes and
    bike routes were examined.

    That's not at all the spin that typical Franklin-quoters of this
    parish want... I suggest that the summary is misleading at best.

    Hope that explains,
    --
    MJ Ray http://mjr.towers.org.uk/email.html tel:+44-844-4437-237 -
    Webmaster-developer, statistician, sysadmin, online shop builder,
    consumer and workers co-operative member http://www.ttllp.co.uk/ -
    Writing on koha, debian, sat TV, Kewstoke http://mjr.towers.org.uk/

  9. Mark T <pleasegivegenerously@warmail*turn_up_the_heat_to_reply*.com.invalid>

    Quoted message said:

    Ok, so we go with the 'LAW' study:

    "Surprisingly, bicycle facilities where no motor vehicles are allowed
    showed the highest accident rate of any variable examined. On-street
    facilities, such as bicycle lanes or routes, showed a very low accident
    rate. The rates for both major and minor streets fell in between."

    That's cute. The main body of the report also comments:-

    Off-street bicycle facilities (that do not allow motor vehicle traffic)
    showed the highest overall accident rate, and also an extremely high
    serious accident rate. [...] No explanation is known for this finding.

    So its author explicitly points out there is no explanation, yet Mark T
    knows better and can use it to prop up his preferred explanation?

    Quoted message said:

    [... Franklin's comments of the other studies ...] It's been alleged, in
    this thread, that he has selectively quoted 'to the point of
    misrepresentation' but no one has bothered to (been able to?) give
    examples.

    I just hadn't seen the challenge yet. Usenet transmission is variable.

    --
    MJ Ray http://mjr.towers.org.uk/email.html tel:+44-844-4437-237 -
    Webmaster-developer, statistician, sysadmin, online shop builder,
    consumer and workers co-operative member http://www.ttllp.co.uk/ -
    Writing on koha, debian, sat TV, Kewstoke http://mjr.towers.org.uk/

  10. In article <[email hidden]>, Jeremy Parker
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    The question is, are cars owned by cyclists different from the
    average car. I think they might be. I've seen it estimated that
    about half the cost of a car is tied up with the status symbol
    aspects of it. Since cyclists tend not to look on their cars as
    status symbols, they tend not to spend that half of the money, and so
    get their motoring at half the price it costs a "real" motorist.


    I'd be interested to know that. Have you noticed how motor mechanics
    tend to have scruffy old cars too?

  11. In article <[email hidden]>,

    MJ Ray said:

    [ stuff about the 1974/5 LAW study ]

    Why are we concentrating on this study as if its the most cogent ?
    Surely it's one of the least so. It only occurs so near the top of
    Franklin's research summary page because Franklin's page is in
    chronological order.

    Franklin's summary of it is indeed very brief; obviously it is
    intended to identify the paper by what Franklin considers the most
    salient feature. It's obviously not intended as an assessment of the
    paper's value. Anyone who is arguing from such a short summary is
    obviously misguided.

    Unfortunately the that page only goes up to 1999 so and doesn't cover
    the recent (and quite surprising to many people) before-and-after
    research from various places.

    --
    Ian Jackson personal email: <[email hidden]>
    These opinions are my own. http://www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~ijackson/
    PGP2 key 1024R/0x23f5addb, fingerprint 5906F687 BD03ACAD 0D8E602E FCF37657

  12. Rob Morley said:

    In article <[email hidden]>, Jeremy Parker
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    The question is, are cars owned by cyclists different from the
    average car. I think they might be. I've seen it estimated that
    about half the cost of a car is tied up with the status symbol
    aspects of it. Since cyclists tend not to look on their cars as
    status symbols, they tend not to spend that half of the money, and so
    get their motoring at half the price it costs a "real" motorist.


    I'd be interested to know that. Have you noticed how motor mechanics
    tend to have scruffy old cars too?

    Though that may be related to motor mechanics being paid less than
    average (if they are - I don't actually know) whereas regular cyclists
    are reputedly paid more than average.

    Are motor mechanics cars scruffier than average for people in similar
    employments?

    regards, Ian SMith
    --
    |\ /| no .sig
    |o o|
    |/ \|

  13. On Jan 23, 12:43 pm, Ian Jackson <[email hidden]>

    Quoted message said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,

    MJ Ray said:

    [ stuff about the 1974/5 LAW study ]

    Why are we concentrating on this study as if its the most cogent ?
    Surely it's one of the least so.  It only occurs so near the top of
    Franklin's research summary page because Franklin's page is in
    chronological order.

    Franklin's summary of it is indeed very brief; obviously it is
    intended to identify the paper by what Franklin considers the most
    salient feature.  It's obviously not intended as an assessment of the
    paper's value.  Anyone who is arguing from such a short summary is
    obviously misguided.

    Unfortunately the that page only goes up to 1999 so and doesn't cover
    the recent (and quite surprising to many people) before-and-after
    research from various places.

    --
    Ian Jackson                  personal email: <[email hidden]>
    These opinions are my own.        http://www.chiark.greenend.org.uk/~ijackson/
    PGP2 key 1024R/0x23f5addb,     fingerprint 5906F687 BD03ACAD 0D8E602E FCF37657

    This discussion thread would make an excellent opportunity for you to
    give a few details of some of these recent reports.
    Thanks
    Paul Gannon

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