sheik yerbouti <[email hidden]> wrote in message
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:Quoted message said:Graeme wrote:
> When the UK introduced compulsory seatbelts the change in number of
> drivers killed or seriously injured was statistically insignificant,
> but there was a very significant increase in KSIs to vulnerable road
> users (cyclists, pedestrians, horse riders etc.).
You have a source for this claim of course?
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:Davis, R, 1992/93, Death on the Streets, Leading Edge Press, ISBN 0-
948135-46-8
Quoted message said:not in australia
http://www.atsb.gov.au/road/stats/pdf/crash_rates_2003.pdf
Anyone prepared to download a 300k pdf file should read
http://www.mpp-rdg.mpg.de/workshop/JohnAdams.pdf
Or borrow a book by the same author from the library (Adams J. Risk.
London: UCL Press, 1995.)
The data for NSW look pretty convincing until you realize that road
deaths fell in almost every country about that time, because of the
oil crisis.
The UK introduced its seatbelt legislation about a decade later. It
was predicted that it would save 1000 lives every year. But the
Department of Transport's statistical assessors (Durbin and Harvey
1985) estimated actual savings were between 207 and 459. As well as
lower than expected reductions for front seat occupants, there were
apparent increases in fatalities above the prevailing trend for
cyclists (up 40%) and pedestrians (up 14%) involved in collisions with
motor vehicles and in rear seat passengers (up 27%).
However, later analyses showed that fatal crashes from 4 am to 10 pm
fell by only 3% (in line with the prevailing trend), compared to 23%
for crashes from 10 pm to 4 am (the "drink-drive hours"😉. The
reduction was almost exclusively for drivers who had drunk alcohol
crashing in non-built-up areas, with virtually no change for other
categories (drivers who had not been drinking and crashes in built-up
areas). In 1983, unprecedented numbers of breath tests were
administered, successful prosecutions for drunk driving increased by
31% and the percentage of dead drivers over the legal alcohol limit
dropped from 36% to 31%.
The above represents pretty convincing evidence that the reduction in
fatalities was due to measures against drink-driving, not the seatbelt
law. But seatbelts surely prevent injury during a crash. We are
therefore forced to conclude that drivers felt protected and drove
more dangerously in compensation. If so, we can explain the estimated
increases found by the original report in fatality rates for cyclists,
pedestrians and rear seat passengers (not required to wear belts under
the law).
Perhaps the take home message should be never to believe that a law
mandating a piece of safety equipment will be beneficial. All
governments should take the time and effort to compile pre and
post-intervention statistics, and be guided by what the data actually
tell us. (Of course, if they'd done that for helmet laws, they would
have been repealed a long time ago.)
Dorre