Hi, everyone. Sorry I didn't pickup on this thread a bit earlier. I'd agree that the results for the rear wheels aren't intuitive and require a bit of analysis. I'll just preface this by saying I wish I hadn't screwed up when I measured the *front* Zipp 404 wheel.
Through my testing, I've noticedsome general trends about the aerodynamics of a wheel. The aerodynamics are affected by the number, shape and size of the spokes, as well as the shape of the rim. It's no surprise that if you have more spokes and larger spokes, the aerodynamics will be kind of awful. Round is also much worse than bladed or aero shape.
When it comes to rear wheels, you must also consider the amount of dish. This places the drive side spokes in behind the rim and creates drag that is different from front wheels.
And lastly, we need to consider that I'm only looking at the rotational drag, not the "translational" drag of the rim moving forwards through the air.
So keeping all those things in mind, let's see if it makes sense that the Zipp 404 and Ksyrium ES wheels have roughly the same rotational drag. The ES has big spokes, but there are only 20 compared to Zipp's 24. The Zipp spokes are also round, if I remember correctly. And since dish also matters, I can see why the results might be close.
The last thing to consider is that the deep Zipp rim will drag along a larger boundary layer than a shorter rim like the Ksyrium. Dragging along more viscous fluid (air) does affect the overall aerodynamics, though I don't know how much.
So overall, I can see why the Zipp 404 and Ksyrium ES may be close in my testing, but not in a wind tunnel, where the translational aerodynamics matters a lot. In fact, that's one limitation of my testing is that it'sprobably only valid to compare results of wheels with similar rim depth. I hope this helps...
John Swanson
www.bikephysics.com