Average year over year change in FTP?

I chose 5% YOY but make the following comments:

5 years.

Different power measurement devices used. Earlier years Computrainer, later years Powertap. Really can't tell you the difference between devices as the CT is not mine.

I chose to use the best measured FTP in the first year vs best measured FTP last season. If my baseline was my starting FTP in the first year then the difference would be more like 7% YOY.

Testing protocols have changed in that period - so these are best guesstimates based on known testing history.

Biggest changes were last two seasons - due to more effective training.

Alex Simmons said:

I chose 5% YOY but make the following comments:

5 years.

Different power measurement devices used. Earlier years Computrainer, later years Powertap. Really can't tell you the difference between devices as the CT is not mine.

I chose to use the best measured FTP in the first year vs best measured FTP last season. If my baseline was my starting FTP in the first year then the difference would be more like 7% YOY.

Testing protocols have changed in that period - so these are best guesstimates based on known testing history.

Biggest changes were last two seasons - due to more effective training.

thanks Alex and to those who've contributed. Is there a way to make this sticky for a while?

rmur17 said:

Taking the last three training years into account, what has been your average year over year change in FTP (note per year):

1. Drop of greater than 5%?
   
2. Drop from -5 to -1%?
   
3. Little change -1 to +1%?
   
4. Increase from +1 to +5%?
   
5. Increase from +5 to +10%?
   
6. Increase from +10 to +15%?
   
7. Increase greater than 15%
   

I chose +2% to +6% as that works out about right as an average with some higher and some lower with variation mostly due to injuries.
Best,
Bill Black

Bill Black said:

I chose +2% to +6% as that works out about right as an average with some higher and some lower with variation mostly due to injuries.
Best,
Bill Black

thanks Bill.

It seems we could get something like a Bell curve ...

Come on 265 views currently and <40 votes. Remember it's the average year-to-year change not the overall 😄

I am one of the people that will skew your results because I have been cycling for only ~2 years. In the last 6 months I have seen over 20% improvement in 20 minute power.

strader said:

I am one of the people that will skew your results because I have been cycling for only ~2 years. In the last 6 months I have seen over 20% improvement in 20 minute power.

that's fine. Congrats on the big power increases!

rmur17 said:

...It seems we could get something like a Bell curve ...

Central limit theorem all but guarantees it if enough folks reply and their results aren't strangely dependent on one another. The interesting thing is that at least based on the results so far you've done a very good job of choosing the mean....

Spooky, almost like you knew what to expect 🙂

-Dave

daveryanwyoming said:

Central limit theorem all but guarantees it if enough folks reply and their results aren't strangely dependent on one another. The interesting thing is that at least based on the results so far you've done a very good job of choosing the mean....

Spooky, almost like you knew what to expect 🙂

-Dave

i can be a bit spooky or at least ugly in the proper lighting. I never did need a mask for Halloween 🙁 😄

Anyhow, we're getting there ... a hundred responses would be great!

come on 24 more ..🙂

Doesn't it depend on the starting point? Someone who has just started training would likely to see a much greater increase than someone who is already at the peak of their career. So the question is, what does the collected results mean?

sogood said:

... Someone who has just started training would likely to see a much greater increase than someone who is already at the peak of their career. ...

I suspect that's why we'll see a fairly well defined mean and a normal distribution with an outlying peak on the higher tail. IOW, the curve will be fairly well defined for folks with a few years of consistent training but newer cyclists, and folks coming back from long layoffs or injuries will represent that smaller peak on the high end. 'Course there's always the question of whether folks are training effectively and progressing as fast as they might be....

Just my swag at what the data will show,
-Dave
P.S. And we probably won't see a peak on the lower end, lot's of folks are probably going backwards on their power gains but I bet most aren't hanging around these forums or posting their results when they burn out on training 😉

Mine has gone down quite a bit 'cause I stopped racing after season -06. So be it greater than 5%.

Don't have time to calculate weighted average (must hit sauna right about now..) but stats looks quite high. Thought trained athletes hardly get over 20-30w growth from season to season?

I answered greater than 15%, with the following notes/caveats:

FTP wattage increased from 255 to 300, currently. Weight also decreased from 65 kg to 62 kg. Since it's my first year of serious, concerted training, I don't expect to see these types of gains year after year. Second year of training, but first with power.

I saw some of my biggest gains in FTP in the last 8 weeks, or so. FTP changed from 285 to roughly 300, after having held relatively steady throughout the racing season. The FTP gains from 255 to 280 came in the early part of the season.

rmur17 said:

Taking the last three training years into account, what has been your average year over year change in FTP (note per year):

1. Drop of greater than 5%?
   
2. Drop from -5 to -1%?
   
3. Little change -1 to +1%?
   
4. Increase from +1 to +5%?
   
5. Increase from +5 to +10%?
   
6. Increase from +10 to +15%?
   
7. Increase greater than 15%
   

I choose +5% to 10% , i had a PM for 3 years ( starting my 4 th).
My first year 5%, i was learning how to use a PM, 2 year 8% & 3 years 9%.
Iwill be very happy with 5% this winter.

I've only had a power meter one season but wanted to vote anyway, I had a 9% increase. Took some time off with an injury and still came back at a 7% rise so I voted the 6-8 category. My first 2 seasons were riding by Hr and then by feel, FYI

daveryanwyoming said:

Central limit theorem all but guarantees it if enough folks reply and their results aren't strangely dependent on one another.

Except that we're talking about a non-uniform population. As you've noted, there are people with various training histories and levels of experience here. If we were only polling racers with, say 4 years or more experience and no recent long-term suspension of training, that might be more of what I would consider to be a uniform population.

In any case, it will be an interesting poll. 🙂

Steve

daveryanwyoming said:

I suspect that's why we'll see a fairly well defined mean and a normal distribution with an outlying peak on the higher tail. IOW, the curve will be fairly well defined for folks with a few years of consistent training but newer cyclists, and folks coming back from long layoffs or injuries will represent that smaller peak on the high end. 'Course there's always the question of whether folks are training effectively and progressing as fast as they might be....

Just my swag at what the data will show,
-Dave
P.S. And we probably won't see a peak on the lower end, lot's of folks are probably going backwards on their power gains but I bet most aren't hanging around these forums or posting their results when they burn out on training 😉

good prediction Dr. W. thanks to all who have contributed!

musher said:

I choose +5% to 10% , i had a PM for 3 years ( starting my 4 th).
My first year 5%, i was learning how to use a PM, 2 year 8% & 3 years 9%.
Iwill be very happy with 5% this winter.

I had my PM for 4 y. ( not 3 years ) going on 5y. , so i need to make a change ,in my 3 rd year ( a had a nasty crash broke few bones and the PM )so only 1% ??in 06 , 4 year 4% to dec 07 .
I will be happy with 3% to 5% for 08.