attacks on tourmalet

(David N. Welton) said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

One for the ages.

"David N. Welton" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

Armstrong and Mayo are back with Ullrich.

(David N. Welton) said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

He didn't really attack he just climbs up at his pace...

Keith said:

On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 13:37:20 GMT, [email hidden] (David N. Welton) wrote:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

Quoted message said:

He didn't really attack he just climbs up at his pace...

Were you watching the bicycle race?

"His pace" was that of the lead group, and then rapidly got a lot faster.

In any case... Vinokorouv (sp?) is in trouble. About a minute and a half going over the top of the
Tourmalet.

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David N. Welton said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work yesterday
and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better desender than
Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got all that back on
the long decent.

When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a natural advantage anyway over
Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the
previous day. Lance was only getting stronger.

If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace to wear lance down, he would
not have spent so much E by the time they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's attack
on the steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain eased off towards the
top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan would still be only 15 seconds down going into
the final time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has the psychological momentum.

Bad tactics.

Zeno

"zeno" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

David N. Welton said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work
yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better
desender than Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got all
that back on the long decent.

When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a natural advantage anyway over
Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the
previous day. Lance was only getting stronger.

If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace to wear lance down, he
would not have spent so much E by the time they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled
Lance's attack on the steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain eased
off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan would still be only 15
seconds down going into the final time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has the
psychological momentum.

Bad tactics.

Zeno

It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him to crack and gain big time.
Even if Lance catches up on the decent, Ullrich attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would
Jan give Lance an easy ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his losses?

-T

In article said:

David N. Welton said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work
yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better
desender than Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got all
that back on the long decent.

By opening the gap Armstrong was forced into the wind. He was also being tested. Ullrich may have
felt that the pace was too slow and that Armstrong might jump him.

-WG

zeno said:

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work
yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly.

I tend to agree. With the results known, it is of course easier to judge. Yesterday, I think Lance
played poker (he had a good hand with Beltran). So, there was probably not much, JU could do.

Perhaps the hate between Godefroot and Pevenage played also some role. After all, Telekom should
also be interested to not let Beltran gain many minutes. But only Euskatel and Bianchi worked.

Today, it seemed a bit clearer. When JU had Lance and Mayo at his wheel again, and seeing that the
distance to the rest did not grow that fast, it was very probable, that many riders would come back
in the decent. Perhaps, he had other reasons. Perhaps, he did not feel too well? He might have
remembered, that Lance only attacked in the last climb in his tour wins. Perhaps, he thought, he
could hurt Lance a bit, by accelerating in the second last climb.

About those Vino-Jan coalation thoughts, that were mentioned. What we have seen, was the opposite.
They were fighting vs. each other.

Dieter

warren said:

In article said:

David N. Welton said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work
yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better
desender than Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got all
that back on the long decent.

By opening the gap Armstrong was forced into the wind. He was also being tested. Ullrich may have
felt that the pace was too slow and that Armstrong might jump him.

-WG

Yeah, but Jan was expending a lot more energy to do that than Lance (look at the video) and came
away with nothing to show for it.

It is hard to see an upside for Jan with this tactic. He used a lot more energy jumping on the
Tourmalet than Lance would need to use on the other side to catch him. Because Lance knew that, he
could afford to ride within himself on the way up, let Jan suffer trying to break him, then reel him
in slowly, or even let him gain some time by the summit.

Lance knew he could take it all back on the descent without expending much E to do it. (It takes a
lot more E to gain 30 seconds on a climb than it does to take it back going down hill.) So, IMO, the
chances of Jan gaining anything in terms of either time on Lance or causing him to blow up chasing
were slim in this situation. Instead, Jan used more energy, gained nothing, and suffered on the way
up to Luz because Lance was fresher and getting his legs back.

Zeno

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Tom Schulenburg
"zeno" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

David N. Welton said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work
yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better
desender than Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got all
that back on the long decent.

When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a natural advantage anyway over
Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the
previous day. Lance was only getting stronger.

If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace to wear lance down, he
would not have spent so much E by the time they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled
Lance's attack on the steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain eased
off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan would still be only 15
seconds down going into the final time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has the
psychological momentum.

Bad tactics.

Zeno

It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him to crack and gain big time.
Even if Lance catches up on the decent, Ullrich attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would
Jan give Lance an easy ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his losses?

-T

'

Setting a huge pace by one of Urlichs teamates might have made sense. It also might have made sense for Urlich to attack and then slow... An attack by a rider like Vino who needs a lot of time might have made sense as well. Lance could easily make up 30-40 seconds on the downhill. So Urlich needed more than that and he was never getting it. The attack that Jan made was one that would have been more natural for Lance to make. If i were Jan I would have been happy with 15-30 seconds deficit going into the itt.

zeno said:

Yeah, but Jan was expending a lot more energy to do that than Lance (look at the video) and came
away with nothing to show for it.

It's not about energy -- that is mostly Mgh. It's more about what fraction of the energy is
anaerobic, which has a high metabolic cost. Accelerations take one above lactate threshold, which
takes its toll.

"lazysegall" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Schulenburg said:

"zeno" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

news:3F1C1AA4.5000005@c-

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

yberonic.comnews:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

David N. Welton wrote:
> Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his

way

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> back. Looks to be a good one today!
>

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did

just

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

about all the work yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly.
Lance is a much better desender than Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the
top. Lance could have got all that back on the long decent.

When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a natural advantage anyway
over Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and
on the previous day. Lance was only getting stronger.

If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace to wear lance down,
he would not have spent so much E by the

time

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled Lance's attack on

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the

mountain

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

eased off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan would still be
only 15 seconds down going into the final time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has
the
psychological momentum.

Bad tactics.

Zeno

It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him

to

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

crack and gain big time. Even if Lance catches up on the decent,

Ullrich

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would Jan give Lance an easy ride up to the last
climb where Lance can limit his losses? -T

'

Setting a huge pace by one of Urlichs teamates might have made sense. It also might have made
sense for Urlich to attack and then slow... An attack by a rider like Vino who needs a lot of time
might have made sense as well. Lance could easily make up 30-40 seconds on the downhill. So Urlich
needed more than that and he was never getting it. The attack that Jan made was one that would
have been more natural for Lance to make. If i were Jan I would have been happy with 15-30 seconds
deficit going into the itt.

Yes, Botero should have been there with U l l rich.

Quoted message said:

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Quoted message said:

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Daniel Connelly said:

zeno said:

Yeah, but Jan was expending a lot more energy to do that than Lance (look at the video) and came
away with nothing to show for it.

It's not about energy -- that is mostly Mgh. It's more about what fraction of the energy is
anaerobic, which has a high metabolic cost. Accelerations take one above lactate threshold, which
takes its toll.

What I meant ;-)

Zeno

zeno said:

Lance knew he could take it all back on the descent without expending much E to do it. (It takes a
lot more E to gain 30 seconds on a climb than it does to take it back going down hill.) So, IMO,
the chances of Jan gaining anything in terms of either time on Lance or causing him to blow up
chasing were slim in this situation. Instead, Jan used more energy, gained nothing, and suffered
on the way up to Luz because Lance was fresher and getting his legs back.

Zeno

It makes sense - somewhat - if you assume that Jan guessed that LANCE was still suffering. If LANCE
wasn't so far on the rebound, Jan might have gained a separation he could use. Not very likely, but
certainly possible.

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charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.

In article said:

zeno said:

Lance knew he could take it all back on the descent without expending much E to do it. (It takes
a lot more E to gain 30 seconds on a climb than it does to take it back going down hill.) So,
IMO, the chances of Jan gaining anything in terms of either time on Lance or causing him to blow
up chasing were slim in this situation. Instead, Jan used more energy, gained nothing, and
suffered on the way up to Luz because Lance was fresher and getting his legs back.

Zeno

It makes sense - somewhat - if you assume that Jan guessed that LANCE was still suffering. If
LANCE wasn't so far on the rebound, Jan might have gained a separation he could use. Not very
likely, but certainly possible.

That's what I thought and what I meant by, he was testing Lance. It's not hard for Ullrich to get
the little gap he got and then he's not working any harder than Lance when Lance is slowly
catching him.

Haven't y'all ever heard of exploratory attacks? Happens all the time near the beginning of races.
Do a little attack and see how people respond to get an indication how they might respond later
during your real attack. It's also a means to see how you are feeling on the day or at that moment.

-WG

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"zeno" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

David N. Welton said:

Ullrich, of all people. He dumped Armstrong, who is fighting his way back. Looks to be a good
one today!

IMO, Jan's attack on Tourmalet was a mistake. He and his team did just about all the work
yesterday and today he blew a lot of E on the Tourmalet -- pointlessly. Lance is a much better
desender than Jan. Say Jan picked up 30-seconds on that climb by the top. Lance could have got
all that back on the long decent.

When they got to the steep part going up to Luz, where Lance has a natural advantage anyway over
Jan, Jan could not fend off his attack because Jan had spent more on the Tourmalet and on the
previous day. Lance was only getting stronger.

If Jan had simply marked Lance on the Tourmalet or just pushed the pace to wear lance down, he
would not have spent so much E by the time they got to the Luz climb. He could have handled
Lance's attack on the steep better and possibly caught or even passed him when the mountain
eased off towards the top. Worst case, if they were even at the finish, Jan would still be only
15 seconds down going into the final time trial. Now it's over a minute and Lance has the
psychological momentum.

Bad tactics.

Zeno

It's no secret that Lance has been struggling. The idea is to get him to crack and gain big time.
Even if Lance catches up on the decent, Ullrich attacks again until Lance can't respond. Why would
Jan give Lance an easy ride up to the last climb where Lance can limit his losses?

Because Lance knows very well he can descend much faster than Ullrich, and isn't going to start
really worrying about Ullrich attacking on the penultimate climb unless he gets more than half a
minute or so up: if Ullrich goes all out and gets 20 seconds up the Tourmalet, Lance keeping a
comfortable pace, then they'll be together again before the bottom of the descent, with Lance
feeling fine and Jan suffering from his sprint. If Ullrich had been in a position to take a minute
off Lance up the Tourmalet, then attacking would be the right move - he'd still have 30 seconds or
so at the bottom of the final climb, and the upper hand. When Jan saw that his attack wasn't hard
enough to take that much time, he slowed down to his own comfortable pace. If he'd not done so, and
kept going hard over the Tourmalet, then he'd not have had the energy to limit his losses to Luz
Ardiden the way he did, and this Tour would be over.

Peter