Armstrong vs Jan

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but didn't. In fact, I
think he wanted to win more before the tour but has been unable to.

Quoted message said:

From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team lineup. T-Mobile
does not have the lineup of strong climbers like Beltran.

Well, if you believe Armstrong's logic, T-Mobile has actually become
stronger when Vinokourov got injured. After all, didn't T-mobile have 'too
many leaders'?

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a very
exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95% chance that
Lance will win a 6th tdf.

I'd give Armstrong 70%, Ullrich 20, Mayo 10. But perhaps I'm underestimating
Mayo. He might be the most agressive opponent Armstrong has ever had after
Pantani, and this time the opponent would have a stronger basis in terms of
the team and preparation.

Jonathan.

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.
From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team lineup. T-Mobile
does not have the lineup of strong climbers like Beltran.

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a very
exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95% chance that
Lance will win a 6th tdf.

Interesting analysis. I thought there were a bunch more people racing.

Bob C.

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but didn't.

Lance got his ass handed to him on a platter at Mt. Ventoux, but to say he
wanted to win the Dauphine is just wrong. He made it clear over and over
again that he over-extended himself at the Dauphine last year and wasn't
about to do that again this year. On "The Lance Commercial" on OLN, there's
an interview with Floyd Landis where he talks about how laid back the team
is at the Dauphine and how much fun they're having 'cuz they're not at all
interested in results.

Bob C.

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to lose those
couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at the Ventoux TT then? I'd
put his odds no where near 95%, probably 50/50 based on his racing
last year and so far this year.

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but didn't. In fact, I
think he wanted to win more before the tour but has been unable to.

Quoted message said:

From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team lineup. T-Mobile
does not have the lineup of strong climbers like Beltran.

Well, if you believe Armstrong's logic, T-Mobile has actually become
stronger when Vinokourov got injured. After all, didn't T-mobile have 'too
many leaders'?

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a very
exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95% chance that
Lance will win a 6th tdf.

I'd give Armstrong 70%, Ullrich 20, Mayo 10. But perhaps I'm underestimating

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and Mayo & Heras
just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

Quoted message said:

Mayo. He might be the most agressive opponent Armstrong has ever had after
Pantani, and this time the opponent would have a stronger basis in terms of
the team and preparation.

Mayo will lose a lot of time in the TTT and the long ITT and cannot
attack Lance's strong team in the 3rd week in the mountains. He'll
already be 5-10 minutes back.

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Jonathan.

[email hidden] (Wayne) wrote in
news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to lose those
couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at the Ventoux TT then? I'd
put his odds no where near 95%, probably 50/50 based on his racing
last year and so far this year.

Well, maybe he did choose to lose those couple of minutes. Not lose a
couple of minutes per se but he may not have been riding to win that stage.
As mentioned by another post, Lance has made it pretty clear that he felt
he over-exerted himself during last year's Dauphine and he wasn't going to
do that again. He still rode up that mountain 3 seconds faster then he
ever has.

Remember, the hard stages in the tour come in the third week. Tour
hopefulls don't want to reach their peak at the beginning of the Tour but
near the end.

Who knows?

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in
news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and Mayo & Heras
just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as Mayo? pffffffffffft.
He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

"Boyd Speerschneider" <bspeerscREMOVE_ME@ME_TOOyahoo.com> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in
news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and Mayo & Heras
just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as Mayo?

pffffffffffft.

Quoted message said:

He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

Try http://bestbetting.com/Default.aspx?group=1140738 for the latest odds
from several betting establishments.

B. Lafferty said:

"Boyd Speerschneider" <bspeerscREMOVE_ME@ME_TOOyahoo.com> wrote in
message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in
news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and Mayo & Heras
just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as Mayo?

pffffffffffft.

Quoted message said:

He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo
is.

Try http://bestbetting.com/Default.aspx?group=1140738 for the latest
odds
from several betting establishments.

Apparently, they don't think much of Heras.

--
Bob in CT
Remove ".x" to reply

Ullrich has looked very strong so far this year, and LA hasn't looked
that bad either.

But the people who are really hot now are Mayo, Tyler, Cunego,
and Heras.

I'm not sure if Cunego is racing the Tour, but if he is, he has the
mountain legs to be a threat, espeically if Mayo, Heras, and Hamilton
somehow find themselves ahead of LA and Ullrich on a big hill stage.

The problem with Mayo is his track record in long tours. He always seems
to have a bad day, and as was stated by others, he is no TT king
........ Hamilton can't keep the rubber side down, but if he can, he can
TT with the best, and climb very well. Heras is the dark horse here. He
was rarely given free reign to take off with USPS, and his TT climb in
last years Vuelta was one of the best comebacks ever.

LA has the determination and the singular focus to win, but age and a
strong desire by others to beat him are against him.

My take is LA at about 40%, Jan at around 30% and 10% for the other
three (Mayo, Heras, Hamilton). My pick for the win is Ullrich, with
Armstrong 2nd, and Hamilton 3rd if he doesn't lose time in a crash.

Just my worthless opinion ...........

--

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a very
exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95% chance that
Lance will win a 6th tdf.

95% sure sounds silly given how difficult it is to get through this tour
without having problems. I feel Lance is at 40%, Jan 30%, Mayo 15% and the
rest of the field has the remaining 15%. I like Hamilton, but feel he
really doesn't have a chance unless there are problems for the top three.

Enjoy,
Curt

(Wayne) said:

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to lose those
couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at the Ventoux TT then? I'd
put his odds no where near 95%, probably 50/50 based on his racing
last year and so far this year.

Yeah, 50/50 may be too optimistic. I was thinking last year seeing Armstrong
struggle on every stage that he was damn lucky to have won the Tour but it could
very well be his last. Lot's of good contenders for the Tour this year. I
think Mayo will be a bigger surprise. Hamilton may come good too since his TT
is above par, considering his frog-like motion. He just has to stay upright and
out of the Julich-Vaughters-Crashathon.

Quoted message said:

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as Mayo? pffffffffffft.
He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

Don't count Bobby Julich out. Remember 5TH PLACE in TDS ITT !!! Old
man's got something to prove this year I'm telling you.
I'd give him at least a percent or two !!
You know it.

curt said:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a very
exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95% chance that
Lance will win a 6th tdf.

95% sure sounds silly given how difficult it is to get through this tour
without having problems. I feel Lance is at 40%, Jan 30%, Mayo 15% and the
rest of the field has the remaining 15%. I like Hamilton, but feel he
really doesn't have a chance unless there are problems for the top three.

Most sensible post I've read here today!
My odds 55% Ullrich/ Armstrong 45% - others zero!

"Charlie C." <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (Wayne) wrote in
news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to lose those
couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at the Ventoux TT then? I'd
put his odds no where near 95%, probably 50/50 based on his racing
last year and so far this year.

Well, maybe he did choose to lose those couple of minutes. Not lose a
couple of minutes per se but he may not have been riding to win that stage.
As mentioned by another post, Lance has made it pretty clear that he felt
he over-exerted himself during last year's Dauphine and he wasn't going to
do that again. He still rode up that mountain 3 seconds faster then he
ever has.

One has to remember that Mt Ventoux is a exceptionally difficult
climb. So given Lance's prediliction for peaking at the right time his
performance sort of makes sense.

Quoted message said:

Remember, the hard stages in the tour come in the third week. Tour
hopefulls don't want to reach their peak at the beginning of the Tour but
near the end.

Who knows?

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Ullrich has looked very strong so far this year, and LA hasn't looked
that bad either.

But the people who are really hot now are Mayo, Tyler, Cunego,
and Heras.

I'm not sure if Cunego is racing the Tour, but if he is, he has the
mountain legs to be a threat, espeically if Mayo, Heras, and Hamilton
somehow find themselves ahead of LA and Ullrich on a big hill stage.

The problem with Mayo is his track record in long tours. He always seems
to have a bad day, and as was stated by others, he is no TT king
....... Hamilton can't keep the rubber side down, but if he can, he can
TT with the best, and climb very well. Heras is the dark horse here. He
was rarely given free reign to take off with USPS, and his TT climb in
last years Vuelta was one of the best comebacks ever.

LA has the determination and the singular focus to win, but age and a
strong desire by others to beat him are against him.

Cunego is not doing the tour , but I am pretty sure simoni is.

My feeling about LA is that if he does falter, or crack, it won't be until
the third week.

Patrick said:

Quoted message said:

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as Mayo? pffffffffffft.
He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

Don't count Bobby Julich out. Remember 5TH PLACE in TDS ITT !!! Old
man's got something to prove this year I'm telling you.
I'd give him at least a percent or two !!
You know it.

You just made me think of Pavel Tonkov. Bobby, if you're reading this,
Tonkov's middle-finger salute is probably not a good thing to emulate... 🙂

-Sonarrat.

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong seems
exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf. Armstrong has the
ability to virtually win a race of his choosing.

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but didn't. In fact, I
think he wanted to win more before the tour but has been unable to.

Quoted message said:

From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team lineup. T-Mobile
does not have the lineup of strong climbers like Beltran.

Well, if you believe Armstrong's logic, T-Mobile has actually become
stronger when Vinokourov got injured. After all, didn't T-mobile have 'too
many leaders'?

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a very
exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95% chance that
Lance will win a 6th tdf.

I'd give Armstrong 70%, Ullrich 20, Mayo 10. But perhaps I'm underestimating

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and Mayo & Heras
just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

Quoted message said:

Mayo. He might be the most agressive opponent Armstrong has ever had after
Pantani, and this time the opponent would have a stronger basis in terms of
the team and preparation.

Mayo will lose a lot of time in the TTT and the long ITT and cannot
attack Lance's strong team in the 3rd week in the mountains. He'll
already be 5-10 minutes back.

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Jonathan.

I don't agree, given the fact that the TTT timeloss is limited to 2,5
minutes and the fact that he won the prologue of the Dauphine show he
improved his TT skill. However, he will loose some minutes but i
don't think more than 4. Ofcourse if he can keep up his excellent
shape of the dauphine until the last week of the tour. I personally
think he peaked too early.