Armstrong is History...

"Keith" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Without a miracle, Armstrong will not win this year. Ullrich is just too strong and is on a roll.

In spite of his team of Spanish mercenaries, the fat lady has sung. He can't keep up with Ullrich
sitting on his wheel with two climbs.

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

Not at all. This race will remain up in the air until the last time trial. They are both pushing
deep. The only thing resolved in a small way is that Vino has to know now that with these to former
winners pushing each other, he will not be able to do better than defend his third place.

Lance keeps saying "I knew I would be bad, but I will get better". He is putting a brave face on it
but he must know that he may lose. This is high stakes poker the likes of which...(finish yourself)

I think that's what you meant to say.

Keith said:

Without a miracle, Armstrong will not win this year. Ullrich is just too strong and is on a roll.

In spite of his team of Spanish mercenaries, the fat lady has sung. He can't keep up with Ullrich
sitting on his wheel with two climbs.

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

Ok, so now might be a perfect time to panic....

"Keith" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Without a miracle, Armstrong will not win this year. Ullrich is just too strong and is on a roll.

In spite of his team of Spanish mercenaries, the fat lady has sung. He can't keep up with Ullrich
sitting on his wheel with two climbs.

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

"Keith" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Without a miracle, Armstrong will not win this year. Ullrich is just too strong and is on a roll.

Unfortunately, I have to agree. It's very clear why Armstrong is not attacking--he can't.

While it's impressive for him to finish second on a stage where he became dehydrated, and just as
impressive to finish the way he did today while recovering from dehydration, it's clear that he is
slowly losing the yellow jersey bit by bit, and he doesn't seem to care (at least not in public
interviews).

He may recover, but I'm, not sure it will matter.

cyclingnews.comstage16.htmlOpen ↗

Stage 16, Agen-Lourdes-Hautacam, 199km

1. Bjarne Riis (Den) Telekom 4.56.16
2. Richard Virenque (Fra) Festina 0.49
3. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Festina s.t.
4. Luc Leblanc (Fra) Polti 0.54
5. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Refin 0.57
6. Tony Rominger (Swi) Mapei 1.33
7. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

...... and not quite as fast. He put 8 seconds on Armstrong. Add a 4 second time bonus. 8 seconds on
a climb is almost nothing.

Armstrong may well have not recovered from yesterday. Ullrich is clearly the favorite right now.
However, I wouldn't bet too hard against Armstrong. He's still in yellow. He still hasn't cracked.

Dan

Daniel Connelly said:

cyclingnews.comstage16.htmlOpen ↗

Stage 16, Agen-Lourdes-Hautacam, 199km

1. Bjarne Riis (Den) Telekom 4.56.16
2. Richard Virenque (Fra) Festina 0.49
3. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Festina s.t.
4. Luc Leblanc (Fra) Polti 0.54
5. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Refin 0.57
6. Tony Rominger (Swi) Mapei 1.33
7. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

...... and not quite as fast. He put 8 seconds on Armstrong. Add a 4 second time bonus.

It's 12 seconds time bonus.

Gerrit

"Daniel Connelly" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

cyclingnews.comstage16.htmlOpen ↗

Stage 16, Agen-Lourdes-Hautacam, 199km

1. Bjarne Riis (Den) Telekom 4.56.16
2. Richard Virenque (Fra) Festina 0.49
3. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Festina s.t.
4. Luc Leblanc (Fra) Polti 0.54
5. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Refin 0.57
6. Tony Rominger (Swi) Mapei 1.33
7. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

...... and not quite as fast. He put 8 seconds on Armstrong. Add a 4 second time bonus. 8 seconds
on a climb is almost nothing.

Armstrong may well have not recovered from yesterday. Ullrich is clearly the favorite right now.
However, I wouldn't bet too hard against Armstrong. He's still in yellow. He still hasn't cracked.

Dan

You quoted the wrong dude, dude.

Quoted message said:

Armstrong may well have not recovered from yesterday. Ullrich is clearly the favorite right now.
However, I wouldn't bet too hard against Armstrong. He's still in yellow. He still hasn't cracked.

He's pretty darn close to having cracked two stages in a row. He needs to borrow a Suitcase of
Courage from Paul Sherwin and see if there's anything inside for him.

In a post-stage interview on OLN he said that he was in serious difficulty at the bottom of one of
the climbs.

As a marked man who is recovering from severe dehydration, Armstrong is in fairly serious trouble.
He certainly can't be hoping to win with the last ITT, and he does not appear to be able to
initiate attacks.

It could certainly make for an interesting final stage if Armstrong and Ullrich are seconds apart.
No more quiet victory strolls into Paris.

"Robert Oliver" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Armstrong may well have not recovered from yesterday. Ullrich is clearly the favorite right now.
However, I wouldn't bet too hard against Armstrong. He's still in yellow. He still hasn't
cracked.

He's pretty darn close to having cracked two stages in a row. He needs to borrow a Suitcase of
Courage from Paul Sherwin and see if there's anything inside for him.

In a post-stage interview on OLN he said that he was in serious difficulty at the bottom of one of
the climbs.

As a marked man who is recovering from severe dehydration, Armstrong is in fairly serious trouble.
He certainly can't be hoping to win with the last ITT, and he does not appear to be able to
initiate attacks.

I agree. At the start of the stage, he claimed that he sould be confident with that gap. After the
stage, he claimed to STILL be confident. I don't know if that means he plans to attack or to clean
Ullrich's clock in the ITT.

I think he is handling himself well. The only thing that bothers me is for Chris Carmichael and
Lance both claim an advantage for Lance in power to weight ratio. That may have been true in 2000
and 2001 (as determined by performance on the road), but I doubt they have Ullrich's current lab
data. Evidently Ullrich has kept all the power but lost more weight. He looks as thin or possible
thinner than when he won in 1997.

If Lance does recover, he will likely gloat. That bothers me a bit. Even now he seems condesending
towards Ullrich as if Jan is simply lucky.

Quoted message said:

It could certainly make for an interesting final stage if Armstrong and Ullrich are seconds apart.
No more quiet victory strolls into Paris.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

He might still be in Yellow, but he's not in charge anymore.

Daniel Connelly said:

cyclingnews.comstage16.htmlOpen ↗

Stage 16, Agen-Lourdes-Hautacam, 199km

1. Bjarne Riis (Den) Telekom 4.56.16
2. Richard Virenque (Fra) Festina 0.49
3. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Festina s.t.
4. Luc Leblanc (Fra) Polti 0.54
5. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Refin 0.57
6. Tony Rominger (Swi) Mapei 1.33
7. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

...... and not quite as fast. He put 8 seconds on Armstrong. Add a 4 second time bonus. 8 seconds
on a climb is almost nothing.

Except that Riis attacked with 10km to go and he needed time before the last TT. He didn't really
attack today, he just closed the gap with Vino. If he wants to, he can just ride with Armstrong in
the Pyrenees and total him on the TT again.

Quoted message said:

Armstrong may well have not recovered from yesterday. Ullrich is clearly the favorite right now.
However, I wouldn't bet too hard against Armstrong. He's still in yellow. He still hasn't cracked.

I'm not being too hard, just looking at what's going on. He needs 2' over Ullrich before
the last TT.

Quoted message said:

Dan

"Gerrit Stolte" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

<snip>

It's 12 seconds time bonus.

Quoted message said:

Gerrit

Wasn't it 12 seconds bonus plus 7 on the road (total 19)?

Quoted message said:

As a marked man who is recovering from severe dehydration, Armstrong is in fairly serious trouble.
He certainly can't be hoping to win with the last ITT, and he does not appear to be able to
initiate attacks.

It could certainly make for an interesting final stage if Armstrong and Ullrich are seconds apart.
No more quiet victory strolls into Paris.

Regardless of the situation, that won't happen. TdF tradition pretty much considers that the last
day is the "parade" day. The exception of course is 1989 with a TT.

Keith said:

Quoted message said:

As a marked man who is recovering from severe dehydration, Armstrong is in fairly serious
trouble. He certainly can't be hoping to win with the last ITT, and he does not appear to be able
to initiate attacks.

It could certainly make for an interesting final stage if Armstrong and Ullrich are seconds
apart. No more quiet victory strolls into Paris.

Regardless of the situation, that won't happen. TdF tradition pretty much considers that the last
day is the "parade" day. The exception of course is 1989 with a TT.

According to another thread, it was an exception in 1979 too, when Hinault and Zoetemelk decided
it wasn't a tradition. If LA and JU are only a couple of seconds apart in Paris, goodbye tradition
again. But we may see the sprinters teams crowding them out of any bonus seconds. Wonder what
would happen..

"Keith" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Daniel Connelly said:

cyclingnews.comstage16.htmlOpen ↗

Stage 16, Agen-Lourdes-Hautacam, 199km

1. Bjarne Riis (Den) Telekom 4.56.16
2. Richard Virenque (Fra) Festina 0.49
3. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) Festina s.t.
4. Luc Leblanc (Fra) Polti 0.54
5. Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Refin 0.57
6. Tony Rominger (Swi) Mapei 1.33
7. Jan Ullrich (Ger) Telekom

Nick Burns said:

>The way Ullrich dropped at one point to look at the small pack reminded me of Riis in 1996 at
>Hautacam, except Ullrich is not quite as braggish.

...... and not quite as fast. He put 8 seconds on Armstrong. Add a 4 second time bonus. 8 seconds
on a climb is almost nothing.

Except that Riis attacked with 10km to go and he needed time before the last TT. He didn't really
attack today, he just closed the gap with Vino. If he wants to, he can just ride with Armstrong in
the Pyrenees and total him on the TT again.

Quoted message said:

Armstrong may well have not recovered from yesterday. Ullrich is clearly the favorite right now.
However, I wouldn't bet too hard against Armstrong. He's still in yellow. He still hasn't
cracked.

I'm not being too hard, just looking at what's going on. He needs 2' over Ullrich before the
last TT.

Quoted message said:

Dan

Ullrich has momentum, that is the only thing is his favor. Neither rider wants to go in to the last
TT without the yellow jersey (and the last rider on the road). Neither would feel confident having
to go first.

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

I'm not being too hard, just looking at what's going on. He needs 2' over Ullrich before the
last TT.

Ullrich has momentum, that is the only thing is his favor.

He has getting in better shape by the day, he showed that he can attack Lance in the mountains,
proved that Lance's team is not much of a factor in the mountains, he beat him twice in a row. Lance
made an amateurish mistake in the ITT, couldn't counter Jan's attack (in fact has yet to attack at
all). A lot more things in Ullrich's favor.

Quoted message said:

Neither rider wants to go in to the last TT without the yellow jersey (and the last rider on the
road). Neither would feel confident having to go first.

How do you come to this conclusion after yesterday's ITT? Of course, winning the jersey over the
next three days (difficult, but not impossible) would make it easier for JU to win, but there's only
one of the two guys who should have a confidence problem, even if he manages to stick to his jersey
until the ITT, unless he gains a minute or more over the next few days

Gerrit

"Gerrit Stolte" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

I'm not being too hard, just looking at what's going on. He needs 2' over Ullrich before the
last TT.

Ullrich has momentum, that is the only thing is his favor.

He has getting in better shape by the day, he showed that he can attack Lance in the mountains,
proved that Lance's team is not much of a factor in the mountains, he beat him twice in a row.
Lance made an amateurish mistake in the ITT, couldn't counter Jan's attack (in fact has yet to
attack at all). A lot more things in Ullrich's favor.

You are looking bike and I am looking forward. If you look forward, what is in Ullrich's favor? Just
momentum. It is not all too clear what the next 2 mountain stages and the last TT have in store for
either of them. This is a very close race and on paper the Pyrenes favor Armstrong but only if he
recovers 100%. It is not at all clear that he will. Therefore, the momentum favors Ullrich.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Neither rider wants to go in to the last TT without the yellow jersey (and the last

rider

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

on the road). Neither would feel confident having to go first.

How do you come to this conclusion after yesterday's ITT? Of course, winning the jersey over the
next three days (difficult, but not impossible) would make it easier for JU to win, but there's
only one of the two guys who should have a confidence problem, even if he manages to stick to his
jersey until the ITT, unless he gains a minute or more over the next few days

Gerrit

"Doesn't seem to care", what have you been speading on your croissants? Doesn't seem to care that
he's dedicated his and many other folks almost every waking hour to prepare for this thing. Doesn't
seem to care that his place in Tour history is in the balance. It's such an absurd statement as to
hardly merit a reply. It's called damage control and Armstrong and USPS have no other choice.
They're no doubt feeling under seige right about now and what better way to respond than to play it
cool, don't press any panic buttons, stay organized and keep to plan (as much as possible given the
always changing circumstances). Another word for it would be professionalism, which win or lose, I
hope Armstrong will continue to demonstrate.

"Robert Oliver" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Keith" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Without a miracle, Armstrong will not win this year. Ullrich is just too strong and is on
a roll.

Unfortunately, I have to agree. It's very clear why Armstrong is not attacking--he can't.

While it's impressive for him to finish second on a stage where he became dehydrated, and just as
impressive to finish the way he did today while recovering from dehydration, it's clear that he is
slowly losing the

yellow

Quoted message said:

jersey bit by bit, and he doesn't seem to care (at least not in public interviews).

He may recover, but I'm, not sure it will matter.

Gerrit Stolte <[email hidden]> wrote in :"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

Nick Burns said:

Quoted message said:

I'm not being too hard, just looking at what's going on. He needs 2' over Ullrich before the
last TT.

Ullrich has momentum, that is the only thing is his favor.

He has getting in better shape by the day, he showed that he can attack Lance in the mountains,
proved that Lance's team is not much of a factor in the mountains, he beat him twice in a row.
Lance made an amateurish mistake in the ITT, couldn't counter Jan's attack (in fact has yet to
attack at all). A lot more things in Ullrich's favor.

Quoted message said:

Neither rider wants to go in to the last TT without the yellow jersey (and the last rider on the
road). Neither would feel confident having to go first.

How do you come to this conclusion after yesterday's ITT? Of course, winning the jersey over the
next three days (difficult, but not impossible) would make it easier for JU to win, but there's
only one of the two guys who should have a confidence problem, even if he manages to stick to his
jersey until the ITT, unless he gains a minute or more over the next few days

Gerrit

surely he will try hard to get the jersey till itt to humiliate armstrong then as he did with
virenque in the 1997 itt.

stef