Armstrong cautious, despite Dauphiné win

(Heinz Getzler) said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,
Garzelli & Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

He may not be the logical choice, but I am rooting for Jan this year.

Morgan

Simoni won the Giro. He looked really good in the Giro. But Giro winners seldom have made a mark in
the Tour and especially in the same year.

Mayo is a great climber and certainly someone I look forward to challenging Lance on the mountain
stages. But Mayo isn't the Time Trialist Lance is and that makes him no challenge for the GC.

Ullrich can never be counted out. He hasn't raced to his limits this year but he is training smarter
and has become a bit more humble. That may make a difference.

Oscar Sevilla was a definite threat but won't be riding this year.

de Galdeano has been potshotted.

Levi might explode but I think that he lacks that self confidence that a Tour winner must have to
attack even when he doesn't think that he'll be able to make it himself.

Tyler is looking like a real possibility to hit the podium if he can get his fitness back by the
start of the Tour. Riis will probably baby him for the beginning stages and he will probably recover
and be ready.

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of the competition.

But barring a flying saucer landing on top of Lance or something equally preposterous, I don't see
anyone that can beat him this year.

And that puts him in a great position to go for a 6th win. Something that no one else has ever done.

"Heinz Getzler" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

(cyclingnews.comnewsOpen ↗) "Armstrong cautious, despite
Dauphiné win:

"Call me a favourite, but don't say it's as if I've already won the Tour," he was quoted in Het
Nieuwsblad. "It's not that simple. It

will

Quoted message said:

be three really hard weeks."

"This race was much harder than last year. The parcours, the heat,

the

Quoted message said:

competitors, and of course the crash. Maybe it was my hardest

Dauphiné

Quoted message said:

ever." "Mayo was very aggressive, he has surprised me a lot. I expect him again in the Tour.
Maybe he was the one who made it much more difficult for me this year than in earlier years. But
don't worry,

I'm

Quoted message said:

as strong as last year." Bruyneel also pointed out that "The main rivals of Armstrong weren't
there. Beloki is in form and we'll see Ullrich in the Tour de Suisse. Simoni? He is a customer,
but he's never proved anything in the Tour." "

LANCE is extremely careful to estimate his competition. I think this is good skill he picked up
from Indurain. Lance is quite lucky to

have

Quoted message said:

picked up a talented rider like Manuel Beltran. For Lance think he

is

Quoted message said:

probably stil in the best form. After all he is one who won the Dauphine Libre..After
Lances victory in the Dauphine Libre I predict that Lance has 90% chance of winning this
years tdf. On the

otherhand

Quoted message said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,

Garzelli

Quoted message said:

& Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

"Morgan Fletcher" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

(Heinz Getzler) said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,
Garzelli & Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

He may not be the logical choice, but I am rooting for Jan this year.

Morgan

Me too, but now I think that Lance is going to win it again, maybe Jan in 2004.

Dashii

Tom Kunich said:

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of the competition.

You forgot Aitor Gonzalez.

--
--
Lynn Wallace xmission.com~lawallOpen ↗ "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.

Quoted message said:

But barring a flying saucer landing on top of Lance or something equally preposterous, I don't see
anyone that can beat him this year.

I'd have to say Lance is the odds-on favorite to win (again), but it's absurd to think it's a
foregone conclusion. All he has to do is get a bad cold or nasty spill. So far, he's had very good
luck in the TDF. Luck certainly hasn't won him any of his TDFs directly (although that nasty crash
early on in, what, 1999?, that took out Zulle was certainly a big help).

So yes, I won't be surprised if Lance wins #5 this year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if
something got in the way.

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles chainreactionbicycles.comchainreactionbicycles.comOpen ↗

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Simoni won the Giro. He looked really good in the Giro. But Giro winners seldom have made a mark
in the Tour and especially in the same year.

Mayo is a great climber and certainly someone I look forward to challenging Lance on the mountain
stages. But Mayo isn't the Time Trialist Lance is and that makes him no challenge for the GC.

Ullrich can never be counted out. He hasn't raced to his limits this year but he is training
smarter and has become a bit more humble. That may make a difference.

Oscar Sevilla was a definite threat but won't be riding this year.

de Galdeano has been potshotted.

Levi might explode but I think that he lacks that self confidence that a Tour winner must have to
attack even when he doesn't think that he'll be able to make it himself.

Tyler is looking like a real possibility to hit the podium if he can get his fitness back by the
start of the Tour. Riis will probably baby him for the beginning stages and he will probably
recover and be ready.

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of the competition.

But barring a flying saucer landing on top of Lance or something equally preposterous, I don't see
anyone that can beat him this year.

And that puts him in a great position to go for a 6th win. Something that no one else has
ever done.

"Heinz Getzler" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

(cyclingnews.comnewsOpen ↗) "Armstrong cautious, despite
Dauphiné win:

"Call me a favourite, but don't say it's as if I've already won the Tour," he was quoted in Het
Nieuwsblad. "It's not that simple. It

will

Quoted message said:

be three really hard weeks."

"This race was much harder than last year. The parcours, the heat,

the

Quoted message said:

competitors, and of course the crash. Maybe it was my hardest

Dauphiné

Quoted message said:

ever." "Mayo was very aggressive, he has surprised me a lot. I expect him again in the Tour.
Maybe he was the one who made it much more difficult for me this year than in earlier years. But
don't worry,

I'm

Quoted message said:

as strong as last year." Bruyneel also pointed out that "The main rivals of Armstrong weren't
there. Beloki is in form and we'll see Ullrich in the Tour de Suisse. Simoni? He is a customer,
but he's never proved anything in the Tour." "

LANCE is extremely careful to estimate his competition. I think this is good skill he picked up
from Indurain. Lance is quite lucky to

have

Quoted message said:

picked up a talented rider like Manuel Beltran. For Lance think he

is

Quoted message said:

probably stil in the best form. After all he is one who won the Dauphine Libre..After Lances
victory in the Dauphine Libre I predict that Lance has 90% chance of winning this years tdf.
On the

otherhand

Quoted message said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,

Garzelli

Quoted message said:

& Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

Mayo can time trial fairly well. If he is in the running for GC, I am sure he eould not lose
much time at all to Lance. He is only about 24 years old. He has a good shot at winning the Tour
after Lance.

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Simoni won the Giro. He looked really good in the Giro. But Giro winners seldom have made a mark
in the Tour and especially in the same year.

Mayo is a great climber and certainly someone I look forward to challenging Lance on the mountain
stages. But Mayo isn't the Time Trialist Lance is and that makes him no challenge for the GC.

Ullrich can never be counted out. He hasn't raced to his limits this year but he is training
smarter and has become a bit more humble. That may make a difference.

Oscar Sevilla was a definite threat but won't be riding this year.

de Galdeano has been potshotted.

Levi might explode but I think that he lacks that self confidence that a Tour winner must have to
attack even when he doesn't think that he'll be able to make it himself.

Tyler is looking like a real possibility to hit the podium if he can get his fitness back by the
start of the Tour. Riis will probably baby him for the beginning stages and he will probably
recover and be ready.

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of the competition.

But barring a flying saucer landing on top of Lance or something equally preposterous, I don't see
anyone that can beat him this year.

And that puts him in a great position to go for a 6th win. Something that no one else has
ever done.

"Heinz Getzler" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

(cyclingnews.comnewsOpen ↗) "Armstrong cautious, despite
Dauphiné win:

"Call me a favourite, but don't say it's as if I've already won the Tour," he was quoted in Het
Nieuwsblad. "It's not that simple. It

will

Quoted message said:

be three really hard weeks."

"This race was much harder than last year. The parcours, the heat,

the

Quoted message said:

competitors, and of course the crash. Maybe it was my hardest

Dauphiné

Quoted message said:

ever." "Mayo was very aggressive, he has surprised me a lot. I expect him again in the Tour.
Maybe he was the one who made it much more difficult for me this year than in earlier years. But
don't worry,

I'm

Quoted message said:

as strong as last year." Bruyneel also pointed out that "The main rivals of Armstrong weren't
there. Beloki is in form and we'll see Ullrich in the Tour de Suisse. Simoni? He is a customer,
but he's never proved anything in the Tour." "

LANCE is extremely careful to estimate his competition. I think this is good skill he picked up
from Indurain. Lance is quite lucky to

have

Quoted message said:

picked up a talented rider like Manuel Beltran. For Lance think he

is

Quoted message said:

probably stil in the best form. After all he is one who won the Dauphine Libre..After Lances
victory in the Dauphine Libre I predict that Lance has 90% chance of winning this years tdf.
On the

otherhand

Quoted message said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,

Garzelli

Quoted message said:

& Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

Mike Jacoubowsky said:

I'd have to say Lance is the odds-on favorite to win (again), but it's absurd to think it's a
foregone conclusion. All he has to do is get a bad cold or nasty spill.

Here's an interesting what if: Suppose Lance gets sick, crashes, or just bonks in the mountains and
finds himself 7-8 minutes behind the leaders in GC. Would he abandon, or countinue on even with no
chance of winning?

On paper, Lance is an overwelming favorite, but when you factor in all the things that could
possibly go wrong, I'd have to put his chances at no better than 70%. He can't afford to have a
single bad day in 20 days of racing.

Art Harris

Tom Kunich said:

Mayo is a great climber and certainly someone I look forward to challenging Lance on the mountain
stages. But Mayo isn't the Time Trialist Lance is and that makes him no challenge for the GC.

Mayo beat Armstrong in the Dauphiné (ITT) prologue and was third in the major ITT. Still, he fought
Armstrong and was beaten; that's the best reason for saying that he can't win the TdF either. There
are more open cards among the people currently in Td Suisse and Tour of Catalonia, who haven't
recently compared themselves to Armstrong.

Anyway, I say, don't rule anyone out because he's not the world's best time trialist. If
he's astoundingly good in the mountains and a decent time trialist (and they all are decent
time trialists in the top, at least when riding in the yellow jersey), then that could be
enough. Pantani.

I think Armstrongs chances are 80-90 %. Simoni is the only possible real competitor.

--
«Wänn i de Schwitz s Volk redet, händ d Politikär ruhig sii.»

"Raptor" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

competition.

You forgot Aitor Gonzalez.

Aitor looked a whole lot better last year than he will this year. His bad day made him a non-threat
and that was why Lance wasn't watching him that closely.

"Raptor" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of the competition.

You forgot Aitor Gonzalez.

He can't climb well enough to be a threat: he only won the Vuelta because no-one tried attacking
until near the end of the climbs. He's good in TTs, and probably will win the TdF ones if he's not
having a bad day, but he's not good enough to take anything like enough time out of Armstrong (or
Hamilton, Simoni, Botero).

As far as I can see, we have Armstrong who's just demonstrated he's in shape, Botero who will be
good but has bad days that tend to lose him the GC, Simoni who certainly has the balls to attack
early and take serious time if he can but will lose time in TTs, Hamilton who's overall good as
demonstrated earlier this season. Beloki might well place on the podium, but he's never going to be
first: he isn't a good enough time triallist to simply sit on in mountain stages, and he lacks the
self-confidence to try serious attacks up climbs (partly due to Lance's counters).

Ullrich may well be properly in shape by next year, but not this year.

Peter

Tom Kunich said:

"Raptor" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of

the

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

competition.

You forgot Aitor Gonzalez.

Aitor looked a whole lot better last year than he will this year. His bad day made him a
non-threat and that was why Lance wasn't watching him that closely.

Which bad day are you talking about?

I've liked him since I saw his losing performance at the end of the 2001 TdF stage 8. He's made
steady gains since then, and is under the radar going into this TdF. A perfect dark horse candidate,
though a grand tour winner isn't all that anonymous.

--
--
Lynn Wallace xmission.com~lawallOpen ↗ "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.

Morgan Fletcher <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

(Heinz Getzler) said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,
Garzelli & Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

He may not be the logical choice, but I am rooting for Jan this year.

It would be nice if Jan would win this years tdf. But I think it is out of question. I would
say that if Jan won the tour of Germany and the Tour of Swiitzerland then mayber Jan could
challenge Lance.

Quoted message said:

Morgan

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Simoni won the Giro. He looked really good in the Giro. But Giro winners seldom have made a mark
in the Tour and especially in the same year''

Actually it has been quite common. Hinault, Mercx, Indurain on multiple occasions. I.

Quoted message said:

Mayo is a great climber and certainly someone I look forward to challenging Lance on the mountain
stages. But Mayo isn't the Time Trialist Lance is and that makes him no challenge for the GC.

Ullrich can never be counted out. He hasn't raced to his limits this year but he is training
smarter and has become a bit more humble. That may make a difference.

Oscar Sevilla was a definite threat but won't be riding this year.

de Galdeano has been potshotted.

Levi might explode but I think that he lacks that self confidence that a Tour winner must have to
attack even when he doesn't think that he'll be able to make it himself.

Tyler is looking like a real possibility to hit the podium if he can get his fitness back by the
start of the Tour. Riis will probably baby him for the beginning stages and he will probably
recover and be ready.

The truth is that Heras looks better for the podium than most of the competition.

But barring a flying saucer landing on top of Lance or something equally preposterous, I don't see
anyone that can beat him this year.

And that puts him in a great position to go for a 6th win. Something that no one else has
ever done.

"Heinz Getzler" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

(cyclingnews.comnewsOpen ↗) "Armstrong cautious, despite
Dauphiné win:

"Call me a favourite, but don't say it's as if I've already won the Tour," he was quoted in Het
Nieuwsblad. "It's not that simple. It

will

Quoted message said:

be three really hard weeks."

"This race was much harder than last year. The parcours, the heat,

the

Quoted message said:

competitors, and of course the crash. Maybe it was my hardest

Dauphiné

Quoted message said:

ever." "Mayo was very aggressive, he has surprised me a lot. I expect him again in the Tour.
Maybe he was the one who made it much more difficult for me this year than in earlier years. But
don't worry,

I'm

Quoted message said:

as strong as last year." Bruyneel also pointed out that "The main rivals of Armstrong weren't
there. Beloki is in form and we'll see Ullrich in the Tour de Suisse. Simoni? He is a customer,
but he's never proved anything in the Tour." "

LANCE is extremely careful to estimate his competition. I think this is good skill he picked up
from Indurain. Lance is quite lucky to

have

Quoted message said:

picked up a talented rider like Manuel Beltran. For Lance think he

is

Quoted message said:

probably stil in the best form. After all he is one who won the Dauphine Libre..After Lances
victory in the Dauphine Libre I predict that Lance has 90% chance of winning this years tdf.
On the

otherhand

Quoted message said:

I think Lance is wrong to underestimate Simoni's chances of challenging him. It's quite possible
that Iban Mayo could challenge Lance. But it's also possible that a alliance between Simoni,

Garzelli

Quoted message said:

& Mayo could emerge to challenge Lance.

[email hidden] (Malte Lewan Neelsen) wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

Tom Kunich said:

Mayo is a great climber and certainly someone I look forward to challenging Lance on the mountain
stages. But Mayo isn't the Time Trialist Lance is and that makes him no challenge for the GC.

Mayo beat Armstrong in the Dauphiné (ITT) prologue and was third in the major ITT. Still, he
fought Armstrong and was beaten; that's the best reason for saying that he can't win the TdF
either. There are more open cards among the people currently in Td Suisse and Tour of Catalonia,
who haven't recently compared themselves to Armstrong.

Anyway, I say, don't rule anyone out because he's not the world's best time trialist. If he's
astoundingly good in the mountains and a decent time trialist (and they all are decent time
trialists in the top, at least when riding in the yellow jersey), then that could be enough.
Pantani.

I think Armstrongs chances are 80-90 %. Simoni is the only possible real competitor.

Another point about Mayo that I've seen few people make - Armstrong exerts as much as he needs to to
win. He had a lead, he could pace Mayo's attacks without straining himself, so he rode to hold the
lead. I suspect if Mayo had really threatened, we would have seen Armstrong kick it up a notch and
continue to hold his lead (e.g. the 30s deficit he made up on the downhill).

In the TdF, Armstrong will have a notch or two in reserve for those threats
- the day will come when he won't find that notch and we'll see him get trounced on the mountain,
but barring illness or calamity, I don't think this is the year it'll happen.

Quoted message said:

Here's an interesting what if: Suppose Lance gets sick, crashes, or just bonks in the mountains
and finds himself 7-8 minutes behind the leaders in GC. Would he abandon, or countinue on even
with no chance of winning?

On paper, Lance is an overwelming favorite, but when you factor in all the things that could
possibly go wrong, I'd have to put his chances at no better than 70%. He can't afford to have a
single bad day in 20 days of racing.

Art: Think about what you're saying here. His chances are "no better than 70%."??? I can think of
few other things in the world of sports that carry such certainty. I'd be more willing to go 50%,
and even that's a pretty remarkable thing to claim.

But he can have a bad day or two and still win. He proved that a couple years ago when he bonked so
badly on that climb and lost, what, four minutes? All because he won't carry any food with him,
because he's got everything so carefully figured out and won't carry any extra weight with him.

What he can't do is have a couple bad days in a row, maybe a crash or two. Just plain bad luck can
do anyone in. With all that in mind, I'm looking forward to a very exciting race! (And yes, I'll be
sending in daily reports again on our website, from Toulouse to Paris).

--Mike-- Chain Reaction Bicycles chainreactionbicycles.comchainreactionbicycles.comOpen ↗