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A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most
major polls. He now holds a slight lead in many. The country
is too politically divided for any major swing to occur, but
the change in the White House¹s fortunes has nevertheless
produced measurable results.
Late last week I hosted American University professor Allan
Lichtman on my Abu Dhabi TV ³Viewpoint² program. Lichtman is
the analyst who has developed a scientific model for
predicting the outcome of presidential elections.
While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call
the results of every race since 1984, he has based his
approach on an analysis of the past 35 presidential contests
going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling data,
Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the
society. He has identified 13 such indicators and calls them
his ³13 Keys².
According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection,
he needs to hold at least eight of these ³13 Keys². The ³13
Keys² are:
1. The Incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of
Representatives after the mid-term election;
2. There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;
3. The incumbent-party is the current president;
4. There is no real third-party;
5. The economy is not in recession;
6. Per capita economic growth is improving;
7. The administration effected major policy changes;
8. There is no major social unrest;
9. The incumbent is untainted by major scandal;
10. There have been no major military or foreign
policy failures;
11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and
13. The challenger is not charismatic and not a
national hero.
According to Lichtman¹s assessment, Bush currently can claim
the eight keys necessary to win. (Bush has ³Keys² 1, 2, 3,
4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four ³Keys² Bush loses are 6, 7, 10
and 12. ³Key² nine is still unclear.