http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=46483&d=9&m=6&y=2004
A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most major polls. He now
holds a slight lead in many. The country is too politically divided for any
major swing to occur, but the change in the White House¹s fortunes has
nevertheless produced measurable results.
Late last week I hosted American University professor Allan Lichtman on my
Abu Dhabi TV ³Viewpoint² program. Lichtman is the analyst who has developed
a scientific model for predicting the outcome of presidential elections.
While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call the results of
every race since 1984, he has based his approach on an analysis of the past
35 presidential contests going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling
data, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society. He has
identified 13 such indicators and calls them his ³13 Keys².
According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection, he needs to hold
at least eight of these ³13 Keys². The ³13 Keys² are:
1. The Incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives
after the mid-term election;
2. There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;
3. The incumbent-party is the current president;
4. There is no real third-party;
5. The economy is not in recession;
6. Per capita economic growth is improving;
7. The administration effected major policy changes;
8. There is no major social unrest;
9. The incumbent is untainted by major scandal;
10. There have been no major military or foreign policy failures;
11. There was a major military or foreign policy success;
12. The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and
13. The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero.
According to Lichtman¹s assessment, Bush currently can claim the eight keys
necessary to win. (Bush has ³Keys² 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four
³Keys² Bush loses are 6, 7, 10 and 12. ³Key² nine is still unclear.