Three keen cyclists: Guy, Danny and Nicole were sitting in
the pub one evening. All of them were in scientific careers
and wanted to use their knowledge to predict the outcome of
the next Tour de France in order to make a profit from the
bookmakers.
They reckoned that there must be some mathematical model
which could be applied to the rider, the bike, the terrain
or some combination of all three.
They each agreed to work on a formula and meet again in the
Cyclist's Arms next Friday.
...
Friday arrived and as agreed Guy, Danny and Nicole met up,
armed with a wad of papers each.
Guy showed his theory first. "This model uses the rider's
weight, inside leg measurement, and the difference between
the largest and smallest sprockets to predict who will win
the Tour. It is sufficiently accurate to be able to narrow
down the possible winners to just 10% of the participants".
Danny spoke next. "Well my model is more accurate than
that", he claimed, "I have used the crank length, saddle
height, and numer of spokes on the rear wheel. When combined
with the rider's weight this allows me to narrow down the
possible winners to just 5% of the participants."
Guy agreed that this was quite a good attempt but Nicole
said, "Sorry, lads, but my model is even better than that.
Armed with only the rider's weight, the average gradient for
each stage, and the size of the larger chainring I can
narrow down the possible winners to just .25%."
Guy and Danny were awestruck. This was amazing. They could
pretty much guarantee to be picking the winner this way. All
was decided then: Off they went to the bookmaker the
following morning.
Guy sold his best recumbent. Danny sold his best
unicycle. Nicole sold her best racing bike. All the
proceeds went on making a bet that Lance Armstrong would
be the 2004 Tour winner.
A few months later, the Tour started. The prologue ... and
OH NO! Lance loses the stage. Never mind thought the trio,
there are many more stages left.
As the days go by, Lances performance deteriorates and a new
upcoming domestique eventually wins the Tour.
Guy, angry that he had lost his recumbent; and Danny,
in tears at losing his unicycle both have sharp words
with Nicole.
"You promised us that you could calculate the winner to
0.25%", shouted Guy and Danny.
"I'm very sorry lads", replied Nicole, "My model was indeed
accurate to 0.25% but it was only valid for a spherical
cyclist travelling along a frictionless road in a vacuum".
IGMC, Rich x
--
[email hidden] Personal Site: www.artybee.net (same
[censored], different layout) Sutton Brass :
www.suttonbrass.org.uk