A prediction.

John Morgan said:

Quoted message said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

I long for the day this becomes reality. Let the naysayers deny the possibilities all they want. I
trust that technology will surprise us yet again, and we will have some sort of gear hub to replace
derailers. Question is when, and how much? My only worry is that nobody out there really seems
motivated to invent a better gear hub...

-John Morgan

BingBingBingBing. Correct sir, for the most part, the market doesn't demand a solution to the
external drivetrain. If it ever did, there would be a raft of new internal hub and perhaps some
shaft driven drivetrains.

Punctuated Equilibrium.

A

Slacker said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

pbase.com16417538Open ↗

That's no ostrich. That's Emu!

Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

I've heard he's not fussy...

;p

--
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b.bmx FAQ: t-online.debmx faq.htmOpen ↗

"Carla A-G" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past.

They already are.

Quoted message said:

Once internally geared hubs are improved and lightened in weight, they will be available on all
geared bikes.

Multiple gears are not really needed.

JDss

"JD" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Carla A-G" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past.

They already are.

Still see them on 95% of the bikes out there.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Once internally geared hubs are improved and lightened in weight, they

will

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

be available on all geared bikes.

Multiple gears are not really needed.

JDss

Agreed.

- CA-Gss (soon)

Can-Am Girls Kick Ass!

Carla A-G said:

- CA-Gss (soon)

Isn't the expectation SO exciting!?!?!?

Slacker said:

"Stephen Baker" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Slacker says:

Quoted message said:

pbase.com16417538Open ↗

That's no ostrich. That's Emu!

Steve

Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.

The mind serves properly as a window glass rather than as a reflector, that is, the mind should give
an immediate view instead of an interpretation of the world.
:-]

"Carla A-G" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

The derailleur is really an evil freakin' pos. I'm still a bit bitter from last week. Solo Ski to
sea, going from skate ski to MTB. Derailleur goes from the back of the bike to the front taking out
my front derailleur, nice! 37K xc run added to the 15K run after the road bike. Maybe next year I'll
be sporting a SS.

Shaun Bell

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Slacker says:

>pbase.com16417538Open ↗

That's no ostrich. That's Emu!

Steve

Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.

pbase.com16452000Open ↗

pbase.com16452001Open ↗

pbase.com16452003Open ↗

pbase.com16452004Open ↗
--
Slacker

Anthony Sloan said:

Carla A-G said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

Quoted message said:

I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.

The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

Internally geared hubs are hardly a "paradigm shift" - they've been around for a LONG time. The
newest ones are somewhat more refined than the old ones - but suffer from the same limitations. And
sadly, that limitation is based on the inherent loss of efficiency from the intermeshing of gears (a
very necessary component of an internally geared hub).

I suppose as material science takes us along the path of better, longer-wearing materials we may see
incremental improvements in the efficiency of an IG hub, but it's going to take a quantum leap to
get us to the point where the losses will be in the same range as a (well-maintained) chain drive.

Hey, I'd like to see it happen too - I just wouldn't put off buying that new drivetrain to wait
for it. ;-)

Mark Hickey Habanero Cycles habcycles.comhabcycles.comOpen ↗ Home of the $695 ti frame

Mark Hickey said:

Anthony Sloan said:

Carla A-G said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

Quoted message said:

I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.

The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

Internally geared hubs are hardly a "paradigm shift" - they've been around for a LONG time.

Well aware of that.

The paradigm shift would be when/if 95% of new bikes sported internal hubs. Thanks for the
lesson tho'. ;*)

I'm not saying that this is slated to happen, I'm just saying that no one knows for sure, and
technology has a way of advancing in unexpected directions. I remember thinking woefully to myself
as a kid that I'd never get to be an inventor because everything had been invented!

A

--
My hands are full of thorns but I can't quit groping for the rose.

"Anthony Sloan" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Carla A-G said:

Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared

hubs

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

are improved and lightened in weight, they will be available on all

geared

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

bikes.

- CA-G shooting herself in the foot...

Can-Am Girls Kick Ass!

I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.

I've spent considerable time trying to invent a replacement for the derailleur. What I really wanted
to invent was a CVT for bicycles. The trouble is, how do you beat the reliability and superior
efficiency of the derailleur? Would automatic shifting or a CVT actually improve cycling in any
substantial way?

Invention most often attempts to replace or improve existing problematic technologies. Paradigm
shifts occur when there is a need for a paradigm shift - such as going from not being able to fly,
to flying. The fact that current derailleur-based drivetrains are up to 99% energy efficient, cheap
to manufacture and super reliable tends to lessen the likelihood of a paradigm shift. To what would
we be shifting? The new technology would have to be substantially better than what currently exists.
It also has to obey the laws of physics.

Quoted message said:

The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

Paradigm-shifting technologies evolve steadily. They don't just pop into existence overnight.
Automobiles, jet airliners, computer networking, microwave ovens, personal computers, wireless
telephony, GMO's - all of these technologies evolved over decades before they shifted any paradigms.

Bicycles have evolved, too. The arrival of reliable derailleurs was the paradigm shift.

Barry

JD said:

Multiple gears are not really needed.

A gear is not really needed. pedalinghistory.comPHbikbio.htmOpen ↗

bock

Slacker said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> Slacker says:
>
> >pbase.com16417538Open ↗
>
> That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
>
> Steve

Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.

pbase.com16452000Open ↗

pbase.com16452001Open ↗

pbase.com16452003Open ↗

pbase.com16452004Open ↗

D'oh!!!!!!!!

bill The mind serves properly as a window glass rather than as a reflector, that is, the mind should
give an immediate view instead of an interpretation of the world.
:-]

B. Sanders said:

Bicycles have evolved, too. The arrival of reliable derailleurs was the paradigm shift.

Barry

I think the fact that recently adult have become interested in bicycles again is one of the huger
paradigm shifts.
--
My hands are full of thorns but I can't quit groping for the rose.