A critical team time trail

[font=Verdana][font=Arial]They can’t win the stage by more than a minute because time is limited to 20 seconds on second place.....[/font]

[font=Verdana]Please see previous post….. (http://www.cyclingforums.com/t259187-team-tt-time-losses.html)[/font]

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hillelos said:

If armstrong's team win stage 4 by more than a minute, I believe the race is over- Armstrong will then have 2 minutes overall lead, even before the Alps.

But my guess- CSC team will be strong tomorrow, and will stay in the game, with Zabriskie, Sastre and mainly- Basso.

Ullrich dream to win one more time will end tomorrow.

What is your guess?

O.K

Yet, if T-Mobile finishes at 4th place or worse, they can loose 40 sec or even a minute, and then it will be very close to end Ullrich chance.

Anyway, can CSC win Discovery?

hillelos said:

O.K

Yet, if T-Mobile finishes at 4th place or worse, they can loose 40 sec or even a minute, and then it will be very close to end Ullrich chance.

Anyway, can CSC win Discovery?

From the comentary I've heard, Discovery, CSC and Phonak all could contend for the stage win. Discovery might not have as good of time trial team as last year due to the loss of Landis and Ekimov. It should be a great race!

Does anyone see a weakness on Team Discovery? Has Noval improved his TT skills?

I agree I think discovery will put down a really good time and CSC will be really strong but you never know supposedly there is rain in the forecast over there for tomorrow.

I'm seeing something of the "used-to-could-tell" team in orange in my crystal ball. These TTT's are always a blast to watch. So many things come into play. Enjoy!!!!

ryan16 said:

I agree I think discovery will put down a really good time and CSC will be really strong but you never know supposedly there is rain in the forecast over there for tomorrow.

We could get good weather until DSC come out when it starts raining, unlike last year........

I have checked the weather and as of 12pm local time its nice and warm (24c) but cloudy...... no signs of rain thou..........

alibat said:

We could get good weather until DSC come out when it starts raining, unlike last year........

Weakest DC time trialist in the first stage was Beltran at 70th place with a 2:14 deficit. For CSC its Lombardi at 2:31, Phonak has Zampieri at 2.52. Mind you its the time for the first five riders across the line so those people will probably be dropped in the later part of the course.

These are the time deficits for the fifth placed riders in each contending team in the opening stage:

27] Bert Grabsch (Ger) Phonak Hearing Systems 1.31
26] Luke Roberts (Aus) Team CSC same
22] Benjamin Noval (Spa) Discovery Channel 1.28
89] Tobias Steinhauser (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.29

Based on that T-Mobile are gone and the other three will have a tough fight for first place.

Edit:
54] Beat Zberg (Swi) Gerolsteiner 2.02

so Gerolstiner might beat T-Mobile aswell, don't look good for JU and Vino.

[font=Verdana]buuuuuuttttttttttt................... the big guns can do longer and more turns on the front to protect the weaker riders......... you only have to remember the ONCE squad of mountain goats who have won and pushed USPS all the way in previous years......

If anyone read Jan Ullrich’s column in the London Times he stated this morning that T-Mobile have been training as a team for this event on the same roads....... its not over yet boys and girls…………. we will see, we will see......
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Eldrack said:

Weakest DC time trialist in the first stage was Beltran at 70th place with a 2:14 deficit. For CSC its Lombardi at 2:31, Phonak has Zampieri at 2.52. Mind you its the time for the first five riders across the line so those people will probably be dropped in the later part of the course.

These are the time deficits for the fifth placed riders in each contending team in the opening stage:

27] Bert Grabsch (Ger) Phonak Hearing Systems 1.31
26] Luke Roberts (Aus) Team CSC same
22] Benjamin Noval (Spa) Discovery Channel 1.28
89] Tobias Steinhauser (Ger) T-Mobile Team 2.29

Based on that T-Mobile are gone and the other three will have a tough fight for first place.

Edit:
54] Beat Zberg (Swi) Gerolsteiner 2.02

so Gerolstiner might beat T-Mobile aswell, don't look good for JU and Vino.

The rules explained, from cyclingnews.com

The teams' times are taken on the fifth rider to finish, and all riders finishing together with their team are credited with that time. Riders who are dropped will be given their actual time, and there is a time limit of the winning team's time +25% to avoid elimination, which could be a tough call for a rider who gets dropped early; the rest of this spiel only affects the individual GC for riders who finish with their teams.
The maximum amount of time that a rider who finishes with their team can lose to the riders on the winning team is determined by the placing of their team: riders in the team that finishes second can lose no more than 20 seconds, 3rd - 30 seconds, 4th - 40 seconds and so on in ten second increments down to the 15th team, who can lose no more than 2.30, and then in five second increments down to the 21st team whose riders can lose no more than 3 minutes. If the team finishes closer to the winners than the maximum, the riders get the actual team time. Still with me? Good.
The actual team times are used for the overall team classification.

good that someone is still dreaming😉 and has absolute faith in der JAN! Youre probably the only one on this whole earth. It's CSC and basso guys.......that guy will bring pain on Disco and LA. Mark my words........

whiteboytrash said:

[font=Verdana]buuuuuuttttttttttt................... the big guns can do longer and more turns on the front to protect the weaker riders......... you only have to remember the ONCE squad of mountain goats who have won and pushed USPS all the way in previous years......

If anyone read Jan Ullrich’s column in the London Times he stated this morning that T-Mobile have been training as a team for this event on the same roads....... its not over yet boys and girls…………. we will see, we will see......
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I think it would be good if T-Mobile and CSC came first and second, Phonak and Gerolstiner third and fourth and DC fifth because that would close up the GC nicely. That however is highly unlikely, DC will be in the top three.

I agree that ITT times from Stage 1 are only part of the useful information for prediction, although they are useful information no doubt.

(1) This course is longer. Some specialists over shorter distances (e.g., Cancellera, not that he is on a team that cares) will not do as well as those better at longer distances.

(2) More crucially, TTT technique can determine the aerodynamics of the team when they cut through the air and the amount of available drafting. Some teams are a lot stronger in TTT technique (e.g., DC) than others. LA has repeatedly observed that a group with good technique can win over a group of individually stronger ITTists (not that he is saying he falls in the former category). Drafting, formation relative to the wind, proximity of each rider to the person in front of him, even the sequence of riders within a team -- all these things matter.

(3) As mentioned above, stronger riders on a team can take longer pulls, although different teams have different philosophies in this regard. DC believes in it, to enable group speed to be kept constant; Riis to a lesser extent.

(4) Order of start matters. It helps to start later, so that competitors' split times can be known at the time one starts.

[font=Verdana]If Basso goes nutz in the mountains like I saw him in the Giro I will be more than happy.... I think you're right MJ Basso is dangerous..... please don’t forget Vino as well……
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but if Jan does win this Tour I will ride my bike on a lap of France naked....... :eek:

MJtje said:

good that someone is still dreaming😉 and has absolute faith in der JAN! Youre probably the only one on this whole earth. It's CSC and basso guys.......that guy will bring pain on Disco and LA. Mark my words........

Kummer: "Our tactics are very simple. We must maintain a consistent high tempo. Even our climbers Guerini and Sevilla must contribute. The art is to protect the weakest of the team. In a team time trial, real team work is of the essence. No rider must profit at the cost of the others. Naturally, the strongest time trial riders must do more of the work and spend a good 20.25 seconds in the wind, the weaker proportionately less."

It's interesting he talks of the strongest riders as spending 20-25 seconds at the front. I think DC and some of the othe teams are thinking of more on the front for their strongest riders.

Also more gems from Kummer:

"Q: The team time trial will take place on Tuesday. How realistic are the chances of grabbing one of the top positions? Kummer: We have a good team and can expect to come in one of the top seven positions. We don´t expect to lose any time, the team will be driving hard. I expect every rider to give his all for the team. Then, at the end, we´ll see where our performance brings us."

My question: If you are the top seven, you are not in one of the top positions if you are at the bottom of the top seven. Also, what Kummer said is internally inconsistent -- he will lose time if he is seventh.

"Q: Already the riders in Ivan Basso's CSC team and Lance Armstrong's Discovery Channel team have put in impressive performances in the individual time trials. Are you worried about Tuesday? Kummer: I´m convinced that all our riders will give it everything. Sure, Discovery and CSC have put in some very impressive performances, but we must not cower away. We must be in top shape on Tuesday. Apart from that, the regulations provide a safety net for the teams. Even the group that comes last can´t lose more than 3 minutes to the winners."

My question: If Kummer is thinking about the safety net of 2 min 30 sec, he has already lost. It is pathetic to be thinking in such terms when one has GC contenders on one's team. Even 20 seconds is a very meangingful amount of time to lose, on any stage. :eek:

Info on DC order, which is similar to last year's order, with adjustment for Landis and Eki being gone:

""The order of riders for the Discovery Channel team will be the same as last year, of course with Savoldelli and Popovych in the mix: Lance Armstrong, Benjamin Noval, Manuel Beltran, Jose Azevedo, Yaroslav Popovych, Paolo Savoldelli, Chechu Rubiera, Pavel Padrnos, and George Hincapie."

Beltran is after two strong TTTists -- LA and Noval. There are two blocks of very strong time trialists within the DC sequence. Padrnos/Hincapie/LA/Noval. That Noval is right after LA suggests that Bruyneel has high regard for Noval's TTT abilities, despite last year. And then Ace/Popo/Paolo.

AT 25km:

[font=Arial][font=Arial]1-[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]TEAM CSC[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]00:25:36[/font][font=Arial] [/font]

[font=Arial]2-[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]LIBERTY SEGUROS - WÜRTH TEAM[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]00:25:42[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]at 06"[/font][font=Arial][/font]

[font=Arial]3-[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]DISCOVERY CHANNEL TEAM[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]00:25:51[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]at 15"[/font][font=Arial][/font]

[font=Arial]3-[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]T-MOBILE TEAM[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]00:25:51[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]at 15"[/font][font=Arial][/font]

[font=Arial]5-[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]CREDIT AGRICOLE[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]00:26:09[/font][font=Arial] [/font][font=Arial]at 33"[/font][font=Arial][/font]

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holy [censored]! w/6k to go DSC is beating tmobile by 24 seconds!

wOOt!!! DSC wins!!!!!!

to lance goes the yellow 🙂

ZABRINSKIE (sp) FELL.....

I feel so bad for him. He was going to be tied with LA....