Basso Tomorrow

"Pistof" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

He hasn't secured 2nd my any stretch of the imagination. He didn't look

as

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good as he has in recent stages.

I could see at the start (first moments of video feed) that he was not going
as well. I did not even need to see the clock to see he was not having a
good day. He did pick up the pace once Lance caught him. This confirms my
suspicion that I have had all along about Basso. He is super strong but has
a hard time working while alone, whether in an ITT or a break.

Quoted message said:

I'm betting he will be weaker than Ullrich
tomorrow.

If he does falter, it will be from the pressure. Ullrich is one of the best,
but Basso is climbing at the highest level right now and he should easily
hang on to the front group. Basso has not lost time on the road to any
Ullrich or Armstrong. If Ullrich was to ignore Armstrong and go for only
second place, then he prabably could attack Basso. I think Ullrich will not
attack unless he can get Armstrong and if that happens Ullrich may find
himself OTB again.

Quoted message said:

He certainly will lose more time in the TT.

No doubt at all. His true Achilles heal is long flat ITTs.

Quoted message said:

Dave

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Pistof" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

He hasn't secured 2nd my any stretch of the imagination. He didn't look

as

Quoted message said:

good as he has in recent stages.

I could see at the start (first moments of video feed) that he was not

going

Quoted message said:

as well. I did not even need to see the clock to see he was not having a
good day. He did pick up the pace once Lance caught him. This confirms my
suspicion that I have had all along about Basso. He is super strong but

has

Quoted message said:

a hard time working while alone, whether in an ITT or a break.

Quoted message said:

I'm betting he will be weaker than Ullrich
tomorrow.

If he does falter, it will be from the pressure. Ullrich is one of the

best,

Quoted message said:

but Basso is climbing at the highest level right now and he should easily
hang on to the front group. Basso has not lost time on the road to any
Ullrich or Armstrong. If Ullrich was to ignore Armstrong and go for only
second place, then he prabably could attack Basso. I think Ullrich will

not

Quoted message said:

attack unless he can get Armstrong and if that happens Ullrich may find
himself OTB again.

Quoted message said:

He certainly will lose more time in the TT.

No doubt at all. His true Achilles heal is long flat ITTs.

Quoted message said:

Dave

"Pistof" <[email hidden]> wrote...

Quoted message said:

He hasn't secured 2nd my any stretch of the imagination. He didn't look

as

Quoted message said:

good as he has in recent stages. I'm betting he will be weaker than

Ullrich

Quoted message said:

tomorrow. He certainly will lose more time in the TT.

I don't think he will lose time tomorrow. The Postals will be keeping all
of them on a short leash (ie, Ullrich, Kloden, Basso), and somehow I doubt
that any of them will attack, as they probably will have more to lose than
to gain by doing so. And based on the past days, I don't see Basso getting
dropped simply from the pace. I expect them all to finish more-or-less
together with Armstrong, with some lower-ranked breakaway winning the stage.

But I do agree that Basso's second place is in trouble in the ITT. Not from
Ullrich, over whom he has more than 4 minutes advantage, but from Kloden
(who he leads by just 1.15). Based on what we saw today, I am expecting
that Kloden can probably go a lot faster than Basso in a long ITT at this
point.

JMS

JMS said:

I don't think he will lose time tomorrow. The Postals will be keeping =

all

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of them on a short leash (ie, Ullrich, Kloden, Basso), and somehow I do=

ubt

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that any of them will attack, as they probably will have more to lose t=

han

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to gain by doing so. And based on the past days, I don't see Basso get=

ting

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dropped simply from the pace. I expect them all to finish more-or-less=

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together with Armstrong, with some lower-ranked breakaway winning the s=

tage.

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=20
But I do agree that Basso's second place is in trouble in the ITT. Not=

from

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Ullrich, over whom he has more than 4 minutes advantage, but from Klode=

n

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(who he leads by just 1.15). Based on what we saw today, I am expectin=

g

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that Kloden can probably go a lot faster than Basso in a long ITT at th=

is

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point.
=20

Don't forget that Kl=F6den and Ullrich together can now do to CSC what=20
Ullrich & Vino maybe (maybe!) could've done against Lance. CSC will have =

to counter any attack of one of them. If Basso is not in top notch=20
shape, they could get him in trouble. My bet is that he will at most get =

3rd in the end.

JMS said:

But I do agree that Basso's second place is in trouble in the ITT. Not from
Ullrich, over whom he has more than 4 minutes advantage, but from Kloden
(who he leads by just 1.15). Based on what we saw today, I am expecting
that Kloden can probably go a lot faster than Basso in a long ITT at this
point.

I would imagind thet Basso, Kloden and Ullrich will be very close
after Saturday's ITT. All three could be within 30 seconds of each
other and it's anybody's guess what the order will be.

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

If he does falter, it will be from the pressure. Ullrich is one of the

best,

Quoted message said:

but Basso is climbing at the highest level right now and he should easily
hang on to the front group. Basso has not lost time on the road to any
Ullrich or Armstrong. If Ullrich was to ignore Armstrong and go for only
second place, then he prabably could attack Basso. I think Ullrich will

not

Quoted message said:

attack unless he can get Armstrong and if that happens Ullrich may find
himself OTB again.

Tomorrow Ullrich and Armstrong will be the final break and Ivan will fall
off the pace.

Quoted message said:

From: "Tom Kunich" [email hidden]

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Tomorrow Ullrich and Armstrong will be the final break and Ivan will fall
off the pace.

Now that Jan has it together that wouldn't surprise me a bit. I say Lance gets
it by 12s over Jan with a late acceleration.
Bill C

"Pistof" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

He hasn't secured 2nd my any stretch of the imagination. He didn't look as
good as he has in recent stages. I'm betting he will be weaker than Ullrich
tomorrow. He certainly will lose more time in the TT.

Dave

Since Ullrich is such a poor descender, maybe on the downhill run to
Le Grand Bornand, he'll attack. Lance and everyone else would be able
to chase, but Jan might cough up a few seconds.

"Tom Kunich" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

If he does falter, it will be from the pressure. Ullrich is one of the

best,

Quoted message said:

but Basso is climbing at the highest level right now and he should

easily

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

hang on to the front group. Basso has not lost time on the road to any
Ullrich or Armstrong. If Ullrich was to ignore Armstrong and go for only
second place, then he prabably could attack Basso. I think Ullrich will

not

Quoted message said:

attack unless he can get Armstrong and if that happens Ullrich may find
himself OTB again.

Tomorrow Ullrich and Armstrong will be the final break and Ivan will fall
off the pace.

It could happen but I really think today was his "jour sans". Basso recovers
really well, or has in the past. If it is the mental pressure we saw today,
then you could be right. The next few stages will be where Basso learns the
most about what it will take for him to win this event in the future. It is
exciting to think we might be seeing the next Tour dynasty. It blows my mind
that Ullrich is likely going to finish second again!!! It's as if he has
some kind of natural inertia towards the second tier of the Tour podium.
Then again, he is a great rider and Lance is just that much better in the
Tour. The margins at this level are quite small and it looks like Ullrich
just peaked about a week too late. There have been some great rides this
year and the only letdown is the course. This is the worst I have ever seen
in terms of showcasing the talent of the riders.