How Many for Lance?

J Jones used 100% recycled electrons to write:

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he get?

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

This is just my observation as someone who has lurked here for a
while. Someone pointed out his margins of victory over the last 5 +
years. Yes, there is a decline. I think that last year was a slight
aberration because Lance didn't have his form, but add to that, that
generation of contenders STILL didn't have the form to beat him
either, also consider that Beloki, who was in good shape to really
push Lance, went down, if Beloki stays in the race does he win?

This year you see that Lance appears to have his form back, but at the
same time, he also is being pushed by the next generation of riders,
namely Basso. Let's say that he does win this year, his best, which I
have already pointed out is declining, will it be enough to hold off
the Basso's and Kloden's, NEXT YEAR? You have to wonder.

I would say this, Lance works 100% to do nothing but win this race.
Sure he also wins other races, but his main focus (and that of his
team) is to win the Tour. If he trains and prepares enough, I am
pretty sure that he has enough to make at least one more run for a
win. But winning #7 is a very different story, the next generation of
riders is ready to take their place (just as it appeared that Ullrich
was ready to take the place as the next guy after Indurain).

RonB

--------------------------------------------------
"It is human nature to take shortcuts in thinking"
--------------------------------------------------

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

-T

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

If he continues to have a great team and can keep riding this well without
mishaps, maybe 8. Surely no more then 8. I think he will have had his fill
at some point and want to retire.

Tom Schulenburg said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

YES! Rather than see Armstrong go for another Tour win, I'd like to see him
fill in the holes in his palmares. I'm thinking of LBL, which he has had at
least 3 close shaves that I can recall, plus he can certainly win the lazy Giro
and Vuelta. I think he needs to go for the Worlds again.

Of course, my views probably contradict his and his new sponsors.

--
Kelly Beard

I'd like to see him work for another, younger, rider next year.
Kinda like the Hinault/Lemond hand-off (but nicer). If the
new rider faulters, then let Lance go for it.

-- LSC

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

"Tom Schulenburg" <.news.prodigy.com>...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <nfw@@bignews6.bellsouth.net...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

I would too but not his new sponsor.

-K

Quoted message said:

-T

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

YES! Rather than see Armstrong go for another Tour win, I'd like to see him
fill in the holes in his palmares. I'm thinking of LBL, which he has had at
least 3 close shaves that I can recall, plus he can certainly win the lazy Giro
and Vuelta. I think he needs to go for the Worlds again.

Of course, my views probably contradict his and his new sponsors.

--
Kelly Beard[/QUOTE]

Well there is a lot of talk about Lance racing in the Giro. Some Italian Journalists have been working on him and he even rode some of the giro climbs this year, a day or so before the giro.

Armstrong will not, however, race the Vuelta for three reasons. First, Armstrong has never showed the least bit of respect for the Vuelta. Second, Armstrong's team will always have spanish climber who would like to win the Vuelta. Expect Beltran to make a real run this year. Third, racing the giro will not extend Lance's season, but racing the Vuelta will and even this year Lance is unwilling to race the olympics.

On how many Tours could armstrong win. That is an interesting question. I think it is hard to say. If next year was a similar race route. I think that Armstrong with a slight natural decline might be put under pressure by a stronger Basso, Mayo, Cuenego (although he may not race), Valverde, and Kloden. Armstrong could win, but I would only say 50% chance even if Armstrongs training was equal to this years. If the tour was more tradtional with a normal TTT and two flat time trials then Lance could almost certainly win if he trained as hard 85%.

Lance is contractually obligated to race next year. Or at least the Discovery contract with tailwind requires lance to race so he will, but his intensity level and desire to win is all that matters. I think that lance's desire to beat a guy like basso for number 7 will be pretty minimal and although Lance might win the giro I really don't expect him to thrive in the tour. I don't have much to support this though and I want to hear what Lance says after the tour.

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for

#6.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to

last

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

-T

To be honest, I think it is a damn shame that he attempted his 6th before
attempting a double. It means his record will always be disrespected by
traditionalists. He is the only 5 timer to never win any other GT. Worse is
he only ever started one other (1998 Vuelta) and that was in a year he did
not enter the Tour. Entering only 1 GT per year is prudent but that is not
what cycling fans want or expect from someone that is working on a Tour
record that will lead some to conclude that Lance just might be the all time
greatest. I say that Lance is now the all time greatest Tour de France
specialist and that he probably ranks just below Indurain in all time great
GT riders. At best, he is tied with Big Mig *if* we agree that a Tour de
France is equal to 2 wins in Spain or Italy.

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he get?

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Honestly, based on what I've seen this year I have no reason to believe next
year should be a struggle at all. Hell, he can probably even win the year
after that if he decides to come back. Figure that if he gets seven it will be
a feat any of us will see matched in our lifetime.

Quoted message said:

Jeff

"Chris" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for

#6.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to

last

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

-T

To be honest, I think it is a damn shame that he attempted his 6th before
attempting a double. It means his record will always be disrespected by
traditionalists. He is the only 5 timer to never win any other GT. Worse is
he only ever started one other (1998 Vuelta) and that was in a year he did
not enter the Tour. Entering only 1 GT per year is prudent but that is not
what cycling fans want or expect from someone that is working on a Tour
record that will lead some to conclude that Lance just might be the all time
greatest. I say that Lance is now the all time greatest Tour de France
specialist and that he probably ranks just below Indurain in all time great
GT riders. At best, he is tied with Big Mig *if* we agree that a Tour de
France is equal to 2 wins in Spain or Italy.

here's something to think about:
if Lance chose to focus on winning either the Giro or the Vuelta instead of
the tour, would he be able to win six in a row?
or, if any other cyclist were to focus on the Tour the way Lance does, could
they win six in a row?

I think the answer to the first question is "yes" and the answer to the
second, "no".

in article [email hidden], K. J. Papai at
[email hidden] wrote on 7/20/04 3:31 PM:

Quoted message said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <.news.prodigy.com>...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <nfw@@bignews6.bellsouth.net...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

I would too but not his new sponsor.

Carmichael is a brilliant man, I'm sure he could find out a way for Lance to
do the Giro-Tour double...

-Sonarrat.

Chris said:

It means his record will always be disrespected by
traditionalists.

You think Edgar Martinez cares what baseball purists think of his
achievements as a designated hitter ?

"Sonarrat" wrote...

Quoted message said:

Carmichael is a brilliant man, I'm sure he could find out a way for Lance

to

Quoted message said:

do the Giro-Tour double...

Don't forget the Vuelta. And Wachovia. And Mount Washington.

J "And the MS 150" F

I think he will have to contend with mental fatigue prior to starting
a 7th Tour. There may come a thought "I'm bored..." while training and
that will be it. He has the money, and he might want a change in his
life. Of all things he has earned that. Sadly, I believe this 6th is
the last time we will see him in yellow.

Laz

"Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

If he continues to have a great team and can keep riding this well without
mishaps, maybe 8. Surely no more then 8. I think he will have had his fill
at some point and want to retire.

Sonarrat <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

in article [email hidden], K. J. Papai at
[email hidden] wrote on 7/20/04 3:31 PM:

Quoted message said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <.news.prodigy.com>...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <nfw@@bignews6.bellsouth.net...
> OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
> Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

>
> I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
> year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?
>
> Jeff

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

I would too but not his new sponsor.

Carmichael is a brilliant man, I'm sure he could find out a way for Lance to
do the Giro-Tour double...

Achieving a "Double" next year would certainly do much to augment
his reputation. All of the other 5 time Tour de France winners have
managed to achieve a "Double". Indeed, Merckx, Anquetil, Hinault, and
Indurain have all performed the feat of a Double **multiple times**.
Mercx had 4 doubles, Hinault 3, and Anquetil and Indurain 2 each.
Moreover, Merckx, Anquetil and Hinault managed win different doubles.
Of course, it is really a tall order to win 11 or 10 Grand Tours if
you restrict yourself to competing in just one Grand Tour a year.

Doubles
Giro - Tour:

Jacques Anquetil (1964); Eddy Merckx (1970, 1972, 1974); Bernard
Hinault (1982, 1985); Miguel Indurain (1992, 1993);

also: Fausto Coppi (1949, 1952); Stephen Roche (1987); Marco Pantani
(1998)

Vuelta - Tour: Jacques Anquetil (1963); Bernard Hinault (1978)

Giro - Vuelta: Eddy Merckx (1973)

and: Giovanni Battaglin (1981)

Armstrong can definitely win the TdF next year, as long as he still
has the ambition to train and the willingness to suffer during the
race. Of course, Armstrong has also benefited from Good Luck
throughout his winning streak--he hasn't been seriously injured in a
crash. More than a few of his closest rivals have had their Tour
chances quashed by getting injured due to a crash.

The closer retirement looms for Armstrong, the less appealing he
seems to find the prospect. Who know? He may try to go for an 8th
straight Tour de France victory, but that would be 2 years hence, and
he would be nearly 35 years old in July 2006....

Quoted message said:

-Sonarrat.

As many as he wants, from the looks of it...

"Chris" <chrismcreynolds.com>...

Quoted message said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <.news.prodigy.com...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for

#6.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to

last

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

To be honest, I think it is a damn shame that he attempted his 6th before
attempting a double. It means his record will always be disrespected by
traditionalists. He is the only 5 timer to never win any other GT. Worse is
he only ever started one other (1998 Vuelta) and that was in a year he did
not enter the Tour. Entering only 1 GT per year is prudent but that is not
what cycling fans want or expect from someone that is working on a Tour
record that will lead some to conclude that Lance just might be the all time
greatest. I say that Lance is now the all time greatest Tour de France
specialist and that he probably ranks just below Indurain in all time great
GT riders. At best, he is tied with Big Mig *if* we agree that a Tour de
France is equal to 2 wins in Spain or Italy.

I slightly disagree and rank Lance above Big Mig.
How many mountain top stages did Big Mig win?

In any case put me in the fold of tifosi who would love
to see Lance do another GT besides the Tour in 2005.

-Ken

(K. J. Papai) said:

"Chris" <chrismcreynolds.com>...

Quoted message said:

"Tom Schulenburg" <.news.prodigy.com...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for

#6.

Quoted message said:

> Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

>
> I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to

last

Quoted message said:

> year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

I'd rather see him try for a Giro / Vuelta double next year.

To be honest, I think it is a damn shame that he attempted his 6th before
attempting a double. It means his record will always be disrespected by
traditionalists. He is the only 5 timer to never win any other GT. Worse is
he only ever started one other (1998 Vuelta) and that was in a year he did
not enter the Tour. Entering only 1 GT per year is prudent but that is not
what cycling fans want or expect from someone that is working on a Tour
record that will lead some to conclude that Lance just might be the all time
greatest. I say that Lance is now the all time greatest Tour de France
specialist and that he probably ranks just below Indurain in all time great
GT riders. At best, he is tied with Big Mig *if* we agree that a Tour de
France is equal to 2 wins in Spain or Italy.

I slightly disagree and rank Lance above Big Mig.
How many mountain top stages did Big Mig win?

Didn't Mig and Mercx also set records for The Hour, never mind contesting and
winning bunches of Classics. Obviously Lance is a great rider and making a
strong case as the greatest GT rider ever. Doesn't make him the greatest cyclist
ever.

Quoted message said:

In any case put me in the fold of tifosi who would love
to see Lance do another GT besides the Tour in 2005.

It would be good and would carve him a much larger place in the history books.

Ron

Yeah, well things can change a lot, rapidly over a short space of
time. Believe me, I am not a Lance basher- "LA=WOW" in my book- but I
recall how convincing Indurain was when he won his 5th, the 6th was
supposed to be a procession in yellow through his home town, but sadly
it did not happen that way. What happened was a long shot in the
shadows, a continual presence suddenly emerged to take the yellow
jersey in a most convincing manner, and many cheered...I heard the
boos today as Lance stormed up L'Alpe- it is sad when they cannot
respect a champion because he is an American. All it takes is one nut
in the crowd- Lance realizes this and I think he would like to avoid
ever meeting this nut. But, Lance is young enough still to win a 7th,
and if he does try I will be cheering him all the way.

Laz

[email hidden] (Laz) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

I think he will have to contend with mental fatigue prior to starting
a 7th Tour. There may come a thought "I'm bored..." while training and
that will be it. He has the money, and he might want a change in his
life. Of all things he has earned that. Sadly, I believe this 6th is
the last time we will see him in yellow.

Laz

"Sierraman" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"J Jones" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

OK. Everyone knows that, barring an accident, Lance is a shoe-in for #6.
Assuming he wins this year (and I think he will), how many more can he

get?

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I think he's good for one more tough fought win next year (similar to last
year), and then he's done. Can anyone imagine him winning >6? >7?

Jeff

If he continues to have a great team and can keep riding this well without
mishaps, maybe 8. Surely no more then 8. I think he will have had his fill
at some point and want to retire.