How about some real TdF observations and discussion fodder:
- First, is it me or does Francisco Mancebo look like the second coming of
Arsenio Gonzalez? For those of you who remember AG, Mancebo sits on the
bike the exact same way. For a split second I thought AG had come out of
retirement! :-)
- Bonehead DS of a TdF team: w/o a doubt, Walter Godefroot. He'd
envisioned a powerhouse team w/Savoldelli, and Vinokourov (among others)
providing a potent one-two(and three?) punch to be able to attack US Postal.
He tells Cadel Evans in the Spring that his TdF selection will be based on
his climbing. Evans wins the GCin a mountainous Tour of Austria...and gets
left out of the Tour team "for his own protection" in favor of Erik Zabel,
who hasn't won anything significant in ages. If this weren't enough
Godefroot went and publicly blasted Kloden, claiming he's a mentally fragile
rider who crumbles under the pressure of expectation. I have to believe
that if Ullrich doesn't pull a rabbit out of his hat to wind up on the
podium and Kloden chokes (to hear Godefroot tell it that's a distinct
possibility), there are going to be heads rolling at T-Mobile this
off-season. How about starting at the top and getting rid of Godefroot?
The guy does less with more every year and how many riders have had their
careers ruined under Godefroot? Savoldelli, Evans, Botero, and Julich come
to mind. Honestly if you're not a German rider I can't imagine why you'd
want to go over to T-Mobile.
- IMO, the Ullrich we saw in 2003 would spank the 2004 Armstrong.
- I don't know about you guys but I don't know if I like the new format of
the TdF; I think it's got a lot to do with the carnage and snore-fest we've
been watching these last few days and here's why:
The old format usually was the same through stage 6 or 7. However you
usually had either an ITT by the time you'd finished stage 7 or 8. This
meant that even if the mountains didn't hit until stage 10, the stages
between the TT and 1st foray into the mountains weren't as full-out as they
were this year because the GC race was much more settled, with many fewer
riders within striking distance of the yellow jersey. Without an ITT I
think that the big mountains need to start earlier than stage 12; perhaps as
early as stage 7 or 8. It just gave 4 more stages to get everyone in the
30-mph-on-the-flats mode. Even Armstrong doesn't have the snap we've become
accustomed to seeing and I have to wonder if it's the race format that did
this to everyone.
****
Predictions for next few stages: Stage 15 will go similarly to the St.
Flour stage; a lead peloton of 50 finishes en masse, with Voeckler possibly
retaining his jersey. If he doesn't lose it there he loses it for sure on
Alpe d'Huez.
Stage 16: Armstrong probably wins, putting 30 seconds to a minute into
Basso. Ullrich starts showing signs of life but probably finishes around
the same time as Basso does.
What I'd love to see on stage 17, but don't think it will happen: Godefroot
isn't convinced Kloden can hold up to the pressure of being team leader. If
you're Jan Ullrich, anything beneath the podium is just another place. Why
not do an all-or-nothing attack that will etiher get him on the podium or
cause him to crash and burn? Orchestrate it as follows:
Send Giuseppe Guerini up the road on the first climb of the day. Postal
isn't going to be concerned about him. On the second climb, have Kloden
bridge to Guerini if he's got the legs to do it. Postal is going to have to
chase that, or at least ride tempo to make sure he doesn't get too far up
the road. Prediction is that they have to react the way they did when
Pantani took his flyer in 2000 on the Joux Plane stage. The result will be
that Postal burns its team up a lot more quickly than they'd like to,
leaving Lance a little more isolated than he'd like. Have Ullrich follow it
up with an all-or-nothing attack on the penultimate climb. He's got nothing
to lose and a podium place to gain. Even if Lance is the only guy going with
him, he's going to move himself up 4 or 5 minutes with such a move. Even if
it goes up in flames (as it most likely will) it'll be a lot better than
watching the 40-wink festival that's been going on up until now. Then
again, a plan like this would require imaginative tactics, and Walter
Godefroot is T-Mobile's manager. I'd love to see it happen but it ain't
gonna. Yawn.
JB