Team Time Trial

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by jaydubya
Tomorrow's stage 4 is the Team Time Trial, the first chance for the riders to really put some seperation between themselves - although this year they've instituted the new rule that won't allow for losses over 2:30. Is USPS going to take the TTT? Phonak and T-Mobile both have strong teams working for Hamilton and Ullrich. Even if they are stronger, will they be able to make up the 16+ odd seconds they've fallen behind?
Before the Tour started, I didn't think Lance had it in him, but he had a convincing prologue, and now I'm not so sure that #6 isn't so far out of reach.

Any thoughts on tomorrows Team Time Trial?

For one thing, I think USPS will put a bigger dent into Mayo's team, which is against the ropes already. Mayo is off the pace by 4 min+ now, and it will probably get worse for him tomorrow.

As for the other teams, I'm not so sure. It may be closer. I think if you look at the prologue times for USPS, you will see a strong team. They will have to avoid crashing, however. This is not a remote possibility.

I have a feeling this race might blow wide open in the Pyrenees because Mayo will have to gain time desperately, and this will provide Lance an opportunity to put a big dent into his other contenders. I don't think that it will be a few seconds race.

I think USPS will win, unless Noval crashes (as he has done twice already). USPS wins over Liberty Seguros by a very small margin, and over T-Mobile by a little bit more. Hamilton loses at least 60".

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette
I think USPS will win, unless Noval crashes (as he has done twice already). USPS wins over Liberty Seguros by a very small margin, and over T-Mobile by a little bit more. Hamilton loses at least 60".

I'm surprised Tyler didn't do better in the Prologue. I thought he wouldn't give up more than 10 seconds to Lance, but he did.

I'm looking forward to the Pyrenees in seeing who will be the big guns this year. We'll see how Heras and Liberty Seguros does there. According to Lance's guess, the Tour will be decided before the Alps. Well, Mayo's pretty much out now. Maybe the TTT will distance someone else. And then soon the day of reckoning comes...the Pyrenees.

I sure wish I could ride like those guys at the front today. Hincapie was really looking like a powering locomotive. 😄 Tomorrow will be another trying day for him in the TTT. This may have a negative effect on the team, but certainly worth burying Mayo over.

USPS to probably win, but I reckon CSC, Phonak and Liberty won't be too far behind.

Note the time. It's likely:

USPS wins.
JU and Hamilton lose actual time relative to USPS (not bad in particular for Hamilton)
Heras loses 1 minute (not bad for Heras either)
Mayo loses 70 seconds.

TH loses 20
JU 40
Heras 70
Mayo 80

Above likely

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette
TH loses 20
JU 40
Heras 70
Mayo 80

Above likely

USPS won by over a minute, and we get to hear Sheryl Crow again at the finish.. umm.. enough with interviewing her. I have to change channels whenever she comes on.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by i2ambler
USPS won by over a minute, and we get to hear Sheryl Crow again at the finish.. umm.. enough with interviewing her. I have to change channels whenever she comes on.

Have you been following discussions on the limitations on time lost?

GC standings of contenders after TTT
Hamilton 8th @ 36 sec
Sevilla 12th @ 44 sec
Ullrich 16th @ 55 sec
Heras 34th @ 1m 45
Mayo 92nd @ 5m27

Interesting to note the team times of 2003 in comparisson to this years. Hamilton when he was with CSC last year lost 1.45 and Ullrich lost 0.43 to USPS. So things seem to be relatively similar to last year.

Heras's team Liberty Seguros performance today was phenominal, as was the 5 man finish of Team Phonak.

Really enjoyed watching today - very exciting.

If USPS finished 67 seconds ahead of Phonak how is it that Hamilton only lost 20 seconds to Armstrong in the GC?

Lose of time during the team time trail is now regulated and dictated by new rules implemented by the organizers of the tour. Visit www.letour.com and read Chris Carmichaels analysis of the 3rd stage for a better understanding of how the new timing works. I don't have the energy to explain it properly.

actually it looks like you loose an amount of time equal to your place * 10". First gets 0. So phonak coming in second gets 20, then 30, 40, 50, 1:00, 1:10, unless you don't finish with your team in which case I think you get the diff.

added after reading carmichael: yeah that's lame for the faster teams, Lance only gets 20" for beating phonak by more than a minute. That's hardly more than the difference in the prologue. Benefits the phonak squad a whole lot though. They only rode 12 seconds faster than t-mobile and they get 20 seconds, then they were a more than a minute off of postal and only loose 20", Hamilton's gotta be happy with that even though by the end 8 seconds will probably be a drop in the bucket.

Simoni is in a bad spot as a result of the TTT. Since he finished slightly behind (less than 10 seconds -- how could that have happened to a leader?) his team, he does not get the benefit of the capped time loss rules.

Even though Simoni would have never been an overall GC threat to begin with, in my mind, Simoni losses 2'42" in Stage 4 to LA and is more than 3 minutes behind LA already. 🙂

So far so good. Good LA!

Substantially reduced with respect to dangerous threats:
I Mayo
H Zubeldia
G Simoni
Manchebo
C Moreau 😉

Even though everyone knew the rules, even if Bruyneel couldn't articulate them, it still sucks that such a dominant performance is not adequately rewarded.

The TDF is a team event and the notion that the organizers want to minimize the damage done to great individual riders who have inferior teams is laughable and hypocritical.

Gone are the days when great individual riders like Mercyx could overcome weak teams.

The untold truth is the TDF organizers have tried to limit the damage that USPS, their superior equipment, training and preparation could do in pushing Lance towards number 6.

It's now all about marketing and hype and covering up the damage done by doping scandals. They so desperately want a close race even though they know Bruyneel has put togther a dominant force that could destroy the others if the gimmicks were were shelved.

Even relenting on letting Cipo back in with his weak team shows how far the organizers will go to maximize the circus.

Now they not only match NASCAR in appearance but in their convoluted rules designed to "level" the playing field.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette
Simoni is in a bad spot as a result of the TTT. Since he finished slightly behind (less than 10 seconds -- how could that have happened to a leader?) his team, he does not get the benefit of the capped time loss rules.

Even though Simoni would have never been an overall GC threat to begin with, in my mind, Simoni losses 2'42" in Stage 4 to LA and is more than 3 minutes behind LA already. 🙂

So far so good. Good LA!

Substantially reduced with respect to dangerous threats:
I Mayo
H Zubeldia
G Simoni
Manchebo
C Moreau 😉

Simoni crashed going into one of the final corners.

Watching the Postal train was a thing of beauty! They really had it together today. Too bad they don't get the full time advantage. Oh well, it was still a grand stage!

GO POSTAL, GO LANCE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

One of the OLN commentators put it aptly, that the TTT just confirms the status quo. It puts a little more distance between teams, but it doesn't change much the places relative to each other. It's a metaphor for the Tour, that the strongest team wins. This means the team that is most capable of riding in the most favorable zone of the peloton, and that would be the TTT winner.

What happened to Noval? I have been trying to figure out why he got dropped. I think he finally made it in within the time limit to avoid being eliminated from the Tour. USPS needs him in the mountains.

Yes, he made it within the time limit. See the "best team" thread. Noval was injured in yesterday's crash, and couldn't keep up early on. His team decided to drop him. That was the right decision, because, while everybody would like his assistance later, the TTT was too important.

The LA website indicates: "Curious what happened to Benjamin Noval today? We got the word from Johan Bruyneel: 'He was involved in the Iban Mayo crash yesterday and was hurting this morning before we started. With the bad weather and cold start it was simply difficult for him to keep up.'"

Also, Noval is less experienced with respect to TTT, and probably was best left off, so long as he finished no later than the elimination time. With the roads as wet and dangerous as they were, Noval could have gone down and taken another Postie (or more than one) with him. Noval is the only "dispensible" Postie, to put it directly.

Only one rider got eliminated, but Noval is pushing things a bit too close.
😉

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