Mayo out?

It's going to be hard to get back, especially with a TTT coming up shortly and an ITTs on the second to last stage. I doubt that Mayo can win the TdF or even get into the podium now, but there's always a possibility. He might really shine in the mountains. But truthfully, his winning was a long shot anyway.

He will lose more time tomorrow, I think he will have to limit himself to going for stage wins in the mountains.

Mayo is now 4'23" down to Lance and about 4' down to Jan. After the TTT, he will lose another 2'30" (which should be more but for that idiotic rule change), which will put him almost 7' down to Lance and over 6' down to Jan. Mayo may be the best climber in the world today, but he cannot make up that amount of time to Tyler, much less to Lance or Jan. Barring some sort of accident to either Jan or Lance (and for any shot at a podium you would have to include at least Tyler, Levi, de Galdeano, and maybe even Heras and Jullich on the list if not more), Mayo is done. If he can get himself a real team next year, however, he has a chance to become unbeatable.

SO should Mayo try and help someone to beat Lance?

It's a shame. I think he'll go for the climber's jersey over stage wins (except he'll try to win Alpe d'Huez). He can lose another 10 minutes before the first mountains and then the contenders will let him take a solo flyer (or maybe with Virenque) to get Mtn Class points.

I don't think that rule about the 2:30 maximum TTT lost time had anything to do with it, but if it did, it's very ironic. It was probably because of Mayo's team's poor time trialing ability that they were unable to stay out of the crash zone today. That makes a lot more of a difference than the time they were not going to lose in the TTT. So either way, they still lose. And they were really hammering in the second major group to try to catch up while the main peloton ruthlessly left them farther in the dust. It was an exhausting day for Mayo and his cohorts. By the time they get to the Pyrenees, they will be hopelessly behind.

Mayo needs to get better help if he expects to ride as he has said he would in the future, say next year.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Lisbon
SO should Mayo try and help someone to beat Lance?

Why should he?

Someone on RBR explained this well. Mayo will go for stage wins. The podium contenders will not do much with him, since he is quite behind on the GC. Because of this, he may get to break from the pack on a stage or two, and possibly get a podium place out of it. Then after the race, everyone will say that Mayo would have won because of stage 3.

LA is not going to let Mayo get too far ahead on a mountain stage until at least the stage after the Alpe d'Huez ITT. That's because LA perceives Mayo as dangerous, and why let Mayo get away when LA could follow him and try and take time off JU? However, Mayo will not win the stage after the Alpe d'Huez ITT because LA would be paranoid about Mayo getting too far ahead there too, on that stage.

Also, Mayo can't help anybody beat LA if (1) Mayo also beats the other person (apart from getting minor bonuses that won't make the different anyway), and (2) LA keeps on following Mayo, which I believe LA can do.

I think it's a bit too early to write him off just yet. I realise that it is a considerable gap, but the mountains are still to come, and anything could happen.

while i was watching the stage today i saw a comertial about the Lance Armstrong Foundation. if you want to go to www.wearyellow.com or www.laf.org and help donate to this cause. This foundation is to help the fight against cancer. You can buy yellow wristbands for $1 to show your support

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by Chad Holland
Mayo is now 4'23" down to Lance and about 4' down to Jan. After the TTT, he will lose another 2'30" (which should be more but for that idiotic rule change), which will put him almost 7' down to Lance and over 6' down to Jan. Mayo may be the best climber in the world today, but he cannot make up that amount of time to Tyler, much less to Lance or Jan. Barring some sort of accident to either Jan or Lance (and for any shot at a podium you would have to include at least Tyler, Levi, de Galdeano, and maybe even Heras and Jullich on the list if not more), Mayo is done. If he can get himself a real team next year, however, he has a chance to become unbeatable.

8 Euskaltel-Euskadi 2.35

It seems quite a good performance for a "not-a-real" team like Euskaltel. Well see if you think the same when the climbs start...

I would say it is still early to write him off completely but anything can happen. Lance could go down, Ullrich could go down, Hamilton will go down (man that guy has a hard time staying upright, although he already had one crash so maybe he has gotten it out of his system!) Barring any major happening Mayo has a lot of work cut out for him.

Mayo has more problems that just recouping the time on the TTT and Stage 3. He will lose more time in the ITT (non-uphill). And it won't be the case that each of LA, JU and TH has problems that prevent each of them from winning.

That's what Mayo needs -- lots of catch-up, plus something unexpectedly bad to happen to each of LA, JU and TH. It's not going to happen. I'm not saying Mayo couldn't theoretically end up in third, but even that is very challenging for him, given his not-so-strong ITT (non-uphill) skills (even though his skills have improved in this regard). Mayo would also have to hope that Heras, who has lost much less time than Mayo, somehow has problems too.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette
Mayo has more problems that just recouping the time on the TTT and Stage 3. He will lose more time in the ITT (non-uphill). And it won't be the case that each of LA, JU and TH has problems that prevent each of them from winning.

That's what Mayo needs -- lots of catch-up, plus something unexpectedly bad to happen to each of LA, JU and TH. It's not going to happen. I'm not saying Mayo couldn't theoretically end up in third, but even that is very challenging for him, given his not-so-strong ITT (non-uphill) skills (even though his skills have improved in this regard). Mayo would also have to hope that Heras, who has lost much less time than Mayo, somehow has problems too.

Between Mayo and Bobby Julich, I would put my money on Julich to finish ahead of Mayo in the GC. He's a better TT on the flats, and he's also good in the mountains. Furthermore, he wasn't in that dreadful accident yesterday.

Did you notice Mayo's "gift" was only 5 seconds in the TTT from the new rule which limited his time loss from #1 finishing team to 2:30?

No, Mayo's benefit is much more than that.

"Real" time lost to USPS, without the 2:30 and other related rules: 2.35

Real cost to Mayo, in terms of the time he got added relative to LA: 80 seconds (because the runner-up gets 20 seconds more than the winner, and each team thereafter for a while -- but not for the whole peloton -- gets +10 sec). Mayo wasn't docked for 2:30 today. Only 80 sec.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by musette
Mayo has more problems that just recouping the time on the TTT and Stage 3. He will lose more time in the ITT (non-uphill). And it won't be the case that each of LA, JU and TH has problems that prevent each of them from winning.

That's what Mayo needs -- lots of catch-up, plus something unexpectedly bad to happen to each of LA, JU and TH. It's not going to happen. I'm not saying Mayo couldn't theoretically end up in third, but even that is very challenging for him, given his not-so-strong ITT (non-uphill) skills (even though his skills have improved in this regard). Mayo would also have to hope that Heras, who has lost much less time than Mayo, somehow has problems too.

I agree completely Musette. I guess I should have mentioned he could still end up on the podium. I really don't think this will happen but it could be a possibility. Maybe Mayo should just go buy a lottery ticket...his chances there are probably better. 😄

Riders who try to attack can sometimes get 6 minutes gaps, so who is to say Mayo couldn't do such things in the mountains? I wish everyone would get off the Armstrong Wagon... 🙁

Zulle ended up in 2nd place the year he crashed in Passage du Gois, where he lost nearly 6 minutes.

That´s doesn´t mean Mayo will do the same this year, but i think that he well be even more agressive on the climbs, so anything could happen. See it this way, he has nothing to lose now, so let´s try to blow up the race at the first chance.

Quoted post said:

Originally posted by kalen
Zulle ended up in 2nd place the year he crashed in Passage du Gois, where he lost nearly 6 minutes.

That´s doesn´t mean Mayo will do the same this year, but i think that he well be even more agressive on the climbs, so anything could happen. See it this way, he has nothing to lose now, so let´s try to blow up the race at the first chance.

That's what I'm looking forward to.😄