Armstrong vs Jan

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong
seems exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf.
Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a race of his
choosing.

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but didn't.
In fact, I think he wanted to win more before the tour but
has been unable to.

Quoted message said:

From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team
lineup. T-Mobile does not have the lineup of strong
climbers like Beltran.

Well, if you believe Armstrong's logic, T-Mobile has
actually become stronger when Vinokourov got injured. After
all, didn't T-mobile have 'too many leaders'?

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a
very exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95%
chance that Lance will win a 6th tdf.

I'd give Armstrong 70%, Ullrich 20, Mayo 10. But perhaps I'm
underestimating Mayo. He might be the most agressive
opponent Armstrong has ever had after Pantani, and this time
the opponent would have a stronger basis in terms of the
team and preparation.

Jonathan.

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong
seems exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf.
Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a race of his
choosing. From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger
team lineup. T-Mobile does not have the lineup of strong
climbers like Beltran.

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a
very exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95%
chance that Lance will win a 6th tdf.

Interesting analysis. I thought there were a bunch more
people racing.

Bob C.

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive. Armstrong
seems exeptionally well prepared for this years tdf.
Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a race of his
choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to
lose those couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at the
Ventoux TT then? I'd put his odds no where near 95%,
probably 50/50 based on his racing last year and so far
this year.

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but
didn't.

Lance got his ass handed to him on a platter at Mt.
Ventoux, but to say he wanted to win the Dauphine is just
wrong. He made it clear over and over again that he over-
extended himself at the Dauphine last year and wasn't about
to do that again this year. On "The Lance Commercial" on
OLN, there's an interview with Floyd Landis where he talks
about how laid back the team is at the Dauphine and how
much fun they're having 'cuz they're not at all interested
in results.

Bob C.

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive.
Armstrong seems exeptionally well prepared for this
years tdf. Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a
race of his choosing.

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but
didn't. In fact, I think he wanted to win more before the
tour but has been unable to.

Quoted message said:

From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team
lineup. T-Mobile does not have the lineup of strong
climbers like Beltran.

Well, if you believe Armstrong's logic, T-Mobile has
actually become stronger when Vinokourov got injured.
After all, didn't T-mobile have 'too many leaders'?

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see
a very exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a
95% chance that Lance will win a 6th tdf.

I'd give Armstrong 70%, Ullrich 20, Mayo 10. But perhaps
I'm underestimating

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and Mayo
& Heras just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

Quoted message said:

Mayo. He might be the most agressive opponent Armstrong
has ever had after Pantani, and this time the opponent
would have a stronger basis in terms of the team and
preparation.

Mayo will lose a lot of time in the TTT and the long ITT and
cannot attack Lance's strong team in the 3rd week in the
mountains. He'll already be 5-10 minutes back.

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Jonathan.

[email hidden] (Wayne) wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive.
Armstrong seems exeptionally well prepared for this years
tdf. Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a race of
his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to
lose those couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at
the Ventoux TT then? I'd put his odds no where near 95%,
probably 50/50 based on his racing last year and so far
this year.

Well, maybe he did choose to lose those couple of minutes.
Not lose a couple of minutes per se but he may not have been
riding to win that stage. As mentioned by another post,
Lance has made it pretty clear that he felt he over-exerted
himself during last year's Dauphine and he wasn't going to
do that again. He still rode up that mountain 3 seconds
faster then he ever has.

Remember, the hard stages in the tour come in the third
week. Tour hopefulls don't want to reach their peak at the
beginning of the Tour but near the end.

Who knows?

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and
Mayo & Heras just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as
Mayo? pffffffffffft. He needs to learn to stay on his bike
before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

"Boyd Speerschneider" <bspeerscREMOVE_ME@ME_TOOyahoo.com> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%,
and Mayo & Heras just 1% each chance to win this
year's Tour.

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning
as Mayo?

pffffffffffft.

Quoted message said:

He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2 the
rider Mayo is.

Try bestbetting.comDefault.aspxOpen ↗ for
the latest odds from several betting establishments.

B. Lafferty said:

"Boyd Speerschneider" <bspeerscREMOVE_ME@ME_TOOyahoo.com>
wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and
Mayo & Heras just 1% each chance to win this year's
Tour.

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning
as Mayo?

pffffffffffft.

Quoted message said:

He needs to learn to stay on his bike before he is 1/2
the rider Mayo
is.

Try bestbetting.comDefault.aspxOpen ↗ for
the latest odds from several betting establishments.

Apparently, they don't think much of Heras.

--
Bob in CT Remove ".x" to reply

Ullrich has looked very strong so far this year, and LA hasn't looked that bad either.

But the people who are really hot now are Mayo, Tyler, Cunego, and Heras.

I'm not sure if Cunego is racing the Tour, but if he is, he has the mountain legs to be a threat, espeically if Mayo, Heras, and Hamilton somehow find themselves ahead of LA and Ullrich on a big hill stage.

The problem with Mayo is his track record in long tours. He always seems to have a bad day, and as was stated by others, he is no TT king ........ Hamilton can't keep the rubber side down, but if he can, he can TT with the best, and climb very well. Heras is the dark horse here. He was rarely given free reign to take off with USPS, and his TT climb in last years Vuelta was one of the best comebacks ever.

LA has the determination and the singular focus to win, but age and a strong desire by others to beat him are against him.

My take is LA at about 40%, Jan at around 30% and 10% for the other three (Mayo, Heras, Hamilton). My pick for the win is Ullrich, with Armstrong 2nd, and Hamilton 3rd if he doesn't lose time in a crash.

Just my worthless opinion ...........

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see a
very exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a 95%
chance that Lance will win a 6th tdf.

95% sure sounds silly given how difficult it is to get
through this tour without having problems. I feel Lance is
at 40%, Jan 30%, Mayo 15% and the rest of the field has the
remaining 15%. I like Hamilton, but feel he really doesn't
have a chance unless there are problems for the top three.

Enjoy, Curt

(Wayne) said:

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive.
Armstrong seems exeptionally well prepared for this years
tdf. Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a race of
his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to
lose those couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at the
Ventoux TT then? I'd put his odds no where near 95%,
probably 50/50 based on his racing last year and so far
this year.

Yeah, 50/50 may be too optimistic. I was thinking last year
seeing Armstrong struggle on every stage that he was damn
lucky to have won the Tour but it could very well be his
last. Lot's of good contenders for the Tour this year. I
think Mayo will be a bigger surprise. Hamilton may come good
too since his TT is above par, considering his frog-like
motion. He just has to stay upright and out of the Julich-Vaughters-
Crashathon.

Quoted message said:

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as
Mayo? pffffffffffft. He needs to learn to stay on his bike
before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

Don't count Bobby Julich out. Remember 5TH PLACE in TDS ITT
!!! Old man's got something to prove this year I'm telling
you. I'd give him at least a percent or two !! You know it.

curt said:

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will see
a very exciting tdf. So at this point I think there is a
95% chance that Lance will win a 6th tdf.

95% sure sounds silly given how difficult it is to get
through this tour without having problems. I feel Lance is
at 40%, Jan 30%, Mayo 15% and the rest of the field has the
remaining 15%. I like Hamilton, but feel he really doesn't
have a chance unless there are problems for the top three.

Most sensible post I've read here today! My odds 55%
Ullrich/ Armstrong 45% - others zero!

"Charlie C." <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (Wayne) wrote in
:"]news:[email hidden]:

Quoted message said:

[email hidden] (Charles Hizark) wrote in message ne-
ws:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive.
Armstrong seems exeptionally well prepared for this
years tdf. Armstrong has the ability to virtually win a
race of his choosing.

This must be a troll, but I'll play. I guess he chose to
lose those couple of minutes to Mayo, Hamilton, etc. at
the Ventoux TT then? I'd put his odds no where near 95%,
probably 50/50 based on his racing last year and so far
this year.

Well, maybe he did choose to lose those couple of minutes.
Not lose a couple of minutes per se but he may not have
been riding to win that stage. As mentioned by another
post, Lance has made it pretty clear that he felt he over-
exerted himself during last year's Dauphine and he wasn't
going to do that again. He still rode up that mountain 3
seconds faster then he ever has.

One has to remember that Mt Ventoux is a exceptionally
difficult
climb. So given Lance's prediliction for peaking at the
right time his performance sort of makes sense.

Quoted message said:

Remember, the hard stages in the tour come in the third
week. Tour hopefulls don't want to reach their peak at the
beginning of the Tour but near the end.

Who knows?

"Daremo" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Ullrich has looked very strong so far this year, and LA
hasn't looked that bad either.

But the people who are really hot now are Mayo, Tyler,
Cunego, and Heras.

I'm not sure if Cunego is racing the Tour, but if he is,
he has the mountain legs to be a threat, espeically if
Mayo, Heras, and Hamilton somehow find themselves ahead of
LA and Ullrich on a big hill stage.

The problem with Mayo is his track record in long tours.
He always seems to have a bad day, and as was stated by
others, he is no TT king ....... Hamilton can't keep the
rubber side down, but if he can, he can TT with the
best, and climb very well. Heras is the dark horse here.
He was rarely given free reign to take off with USPS,
and his TT climb in last years Vuelta was one of the
best comebacks ever.

LA has the determination and the singular focus to win,
but age and a strong desire by others to beat him are
against him.

Cunego is not doing the tour , but I am pretty sure
simoni is.

My feeling about LA is that if he does falter, or crack, it
won't be until the third week.

Patrick said:

Quoted message said:

You give Hamilton 8 x as much of a chance of winning as
Mayo? pffffffffffft. He needs to learn to stay on his bike
before he is 1/2 the rider Mayo is.

Don't count Bobby Julich out. Remember 5TH PLACE in TDS
ITT !!! Old man's got something to prove this year I'm
telling you. I'd give him at least a percent or two !! You
know it.

You just made me think of Pavel Tonkov. Bobby, if you're
reading this, Tonkov's middle-finger salute is probably not
a good thing to emulate... 🙂

-Sonarrat.

[email hidden] (K. J. Papai) wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"Jonathan v.d. Sluis" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:<[email hidden]>...

Quoted message said:

"Charles Hizark" <[email hidden]> schreef in bericht
"]news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

At this point both riders seem quite impressive.
Armstrong seems exeptionally well prepared for this
years tdf. Armstrong has the ability to virtually win
a race of his choosing.

I don't think so. He wanted to win the Dauphine, but
didn't. In fact, I think he wanted to win more before
the tour but has been unable to.

Quoted message said:

From a team perspective Armstrong has a stronger team
lineup. T-Mobile does not have the lineup of strong
climbers like Beltran.

Well, if you believe Armstrong's logic, T-Mobile has
actually become stronger when Vinokourov got injured.
After all, didn't T-mobile have 'too many leaders'?

Quoted message said:

Ullrich's form is coming along quite well so we will
see a very exciting tdf. So at this point I think
there is a 95% chance that Lance will win a 6th tdf.

I'd give Armstrong 70%, Ullrich 20, Mayo 10. But perhaps
I'm underestimating

OK, me, I give Lance 60%, Ullrich 30%, Hamilton 8%, and
Mayo & Heras just 1% each chance to win this year's Tour.

Quoted message said:

Mayo. He might be the most agressive opponent Armstrong
has ever had after Pantani, and this time the opponent
would have a stronger basis in terms of the team and
preparation.

Mayo will lose a lot of time in the TTT and the long ITT
and cannot attack Lance's strong team in the 3rd week in
the mountains. He'll already be 5-10 minutes back.

-Ken

Quoted message said:

Jonathan.

I don't agree, given the fact that the TTT timeloss is
limited to 2,5 minutes and the fact that he won the prologue
of the Dauphine show he improved his TT skill. However, he
will loose some minutes but i don't think more than 4.
Ofcourse if he can keep up his excellent shape of the
dauphine until the last week of the tour. I personally think
he peaked too early.