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low-carb kicks butt in studies - again

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General fitness, health and nutrition
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18 May 2004
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Tcomeau
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  1. cnn.comindex.html

    Headline from CNN:

    Reports: Low-carb has mixed results Tuesday, May 18, 2004
    Posted: 8:55 AM EDT (1255 GMT)

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Low-carbohydrate diets help people
    lose weight in the short term but work no better than other
    diets after a year, researchers reported on Monday.

    The actual abstracts, read the conclusions:

    *******
    A Low-Carbohydrate, Ketogenic Diet versus a Low-Fat Diet To
    Treat Obesity and Hyperlipidemia

    A Randomized, Controlled Trial William S. Yancy, Jr., MD,
    MHS; Maren K. Olsen, PhD; John R. Guyton, MD; Ronna P.
    Bakst, RD; and Eric C. Westman, MD, MHS

    18 May 2004 | Volume 140 Issue 10 | Pages 769-777

    Background: Low-carbohydrate diets remain popular despite a
    paucity of scientific evidence on their effectiveness.

    Objective: To compare the effects of a low-carbohydrate,
    ketogenic diet program with those of a low-fat, low-
    cholesterol, reduced-calorie diet.

    Design: Randomized, controlled trial.

    Setting: Outpatient research clinic.

    Participants: 120 overweight, hyperlipidemic volunteers from
    the community.

    Intervention: Low-carbohydrate diet (initially, <20 g of
    carbohydrate daily) plus nutritional supplementation,
    exercise recommendation, and group meetings, or low-fat diet
    (<30% energy from fat, <300 mg of cholesterol daily, and
    deficit of 500 to 1000 kcal/d) plus exercise recommendation
    and group meetings.

    Measurements: Body weight, body composition, fasting serum
    lipid levels, and tolerability.

    Results: A greater proportion of the low-carbohydrate diet
    group than the low-fat diet group completed the study (76%
    vs. 57%; P = 0.02). At 24 weeks, weight loss was greater in
    the low-carbohydrate diet group than in the low-fat diet
    group (mean change, –12.9% vs. –6.7%; P < .001). Patients in
    both groups lost substantially more fat mass (change, –9.4
    kg with the low-carbohydrate diet vs. –4.8 kg with the low-
    fat diet) than fat-free mass (change, –3.3 kg vs. –2.4 kg,
    respectively). Compared with recipients of the low-fat diet,
    recipients of the low-carbohydrate diet had greater
    decreases in serum triglyceride levels (change, –0.84 mmol/L
    vs. –0.31 mmol/L [–74.2
    mg/dL vs. –27.9 mg/dL]; P = 0.004) and greater increases in
    high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (0.14 mmol/L
    vs. –0.04 mmol/L [5.5 mg/dL vs. –1.6 mg/dL]; P < 0.001).
    Changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level did
    not differ statistically (0.04 mmol/L [1.6 mg/dL] with
    the low-carbohydrate diet and –0.19 mmol/L [–7.4 mg/dL]
    with the low-fat diet; P = 0.2). Minor adverse effects
    were more frequent in the low-carbohydrate diet group.

    Limitations: We could not definitively distinguish effects
    of the low-carbohydrate diet and those of the nutritional
    supplements provided only to that group. In addition,
    participants were healthy and were followed for only 24
    weeks. These factors limit the generalizability of the
    study results.

    Conclusions: Compared with a low-fat diet, a low-
    carbohydrate diet program had better participant retention
    and greater weight loss. During active weight loss, serum
    triglyceride levels decreased more and high-density
    lipoprotein cholesterol level increased more with the low-
    carbohydrate diet than with the low-fat diet.

    **************

    The Effects of Low-Carbohydrate versus Conventional Weight
    Loss Diets in Severely Obese Adults: One-Year Follow-up of a
    Randomized Trial Linda Stern, MD; Nayyar Iqbal, MD; Prakash
    Seshadri, MD; Kathryn L. Chicano, CRNP; Denise A. Daily, RD;
    Joyce McGrory, CRNP; Monica Williams, BS; Edward J. Gracely,
    PhD; and Frederick F. Samaha, MD

    18 May 2004 | Volume 140 Issue 10 | Pages 778-785

    Background: A previous paper reported the 6-month comparison
    of weight loss and metabolic changes in obese adults
    randomly assigned to either a low-carbohydrate diet or a
    conventional weight loss diet.

    Objective: To review the 1-year outcomes between these
    diets.

    Design: Randomized trial.

    Setting: Philadelphia Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

    Participants: 132 obese adults with a body mass index
    of 35 kg/m2 or greater; 83% had diabetes or the
    metabolic syndrome.

    Intervention: Participants received counseling to either
    restrict carbohydrate intake to <30 g per day (low-
    carbohydrate diet) or to restrict caloric intake by 500
    calories per day with <30% of calories from fat
    (conventional diet).

    Measurements: Changes in weight, lipid levels, glycemic
    control, and insulin sensitivity.

    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for persons on
    the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ± 8.7 kg compared with
    –3.1 ± 8.4 kg for persons on the conventional diet.
    Differences between groups were not significant (–1.9 kg
    [95% CI, –4.9 to 1.0 kg]; P = 0.20). For persons on the low-
    carbohydrate diet, triglyceride levels decreased more (P =
    0.044) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels
    decreased less (P = 0.025). As seen in the small group of
    persons with diabetes (n = 54) and after adjustment for
    covariates, hemoglobin A1c levels improved more for persons
    on the low-carbohydrate diet. These more favorable
    metabolic responses to a low-carbohydrate diet remained
    significant after adjustment for weight loss differences.
    Changes in other lipids or insulin sensitivity did not
    differ between groups.

    Limitations: These findings are limited by a high dropout
    rate (34%) and by suboptimal dietary adherence of the
    enrolled persons.

    Conclusion: Participants on a low-carbohydrate diet had more
    favorable overall outcomes at 1 year than did those on a
    conventional diet. Weight loss was similar between groups,
    but effects on atherogenic dyslipidemia and glycemic control
    were still more favorable with a low-carbohydrate diet after
    adjustment for differences in weight loss.

    ******

    Low-carb outperformed low-fat in both studies, both in
    weight loss and in lipid profile improvement and yet the
    headline suggests that this was "mixed results". Another
    example of studies showing clear results and the purveyors
    of the message changing the message entirely.

    Now we have scientific evidence that low-carb works and is
    healthy over a one year period.

    TC

  2. I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    Quoted message said:


    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for persons
    on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ± 8.7 kg compared
    with –3.1 ± 8.4 kg for persons on the conventional
    diet. Differences between groups were not significant
    (–1.9 kg [95% CI, –4.9 to 1.0 kg]; P = 0.20).

    --
    Bob in CT Remove ".x" to reply

  3. "Bob in CT" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    Actually (in case you weren't just joking), the scientific
    method employs a test of statistical significance to account
    for variables not included (and therefore not controlled) in
    the studies between two groups. Thus, there can be a
    difference that mathematically may not be statistically
    significant because of these factors.

    Oops! Sorry! I've been reading "Scientific American.

  4. Bob in CT said:

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    Quoted message said:


    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for
    persons on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ±
    8.7 kg compared with –3.1 ± 8.4 kg for persons on
    the conventional diet. Differences between groups
    were not significant (–1.9 kg [95% CI, –4.9 to
    1.0 kg]; P = 0.20).


    If you are maintaining that is probably the range that you
    are working within.

    --
    jmk in NC

  5. Bob in CT said:

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    Quoted message said:


    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for
    persons on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ±
    8.7 kg compared with –3.1 ± 8.4 kg for persons on
    the conventional diet. Differences between groups
    were not significant (–1.9 kg [95% CI, –4.9 to
    1.0 kg]; P = 0.20).


    If you are maintaining that is probably the range that you
    are working within.

    --
    jmk in NC

  6. Bob in CT <[email hidden]> wrote in
    :"]news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for persons
    on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ± 8.7 kg
    compared with –3.1 ±
    8.4 kg for persons on the conventional diet. Differences
    between groups were not significant (–1.9 kg [95% CI,
    –4.9 to 1.0 kg]; P
    = .20).

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    In statistics, "significant" doesn't mean "personally
    meaningful." In this case, it means that there would be a
    20% chance of finding a difference of at least 1.9 kg purely
    as a result of "luck of the draw" in choosing these
    particular samples, even if there were no difference in the
    underlying populations. In other words, you don't have a
    whole lot of confidence that you'd be able to replicate that
    particular result.

  7. Bob in CT <[email hidden]> wrote in
    :"]news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for persons
    on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ± 8.7 kg
    compared with –3.1 ±
    8.4 kg for persons on the conventional diet. Differences
    between groups were not significant (–1.9 kg [95% CI,
    –4.9 to 1.0 kg]; P
    = .20).

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    In statistics, "significant" doesn't mean "personally
    meaningful." In this case, it means that there would be a
    20% chance of finding a difference of at least 1.9 kg purely
    as a result of "luck of the draw" in choosing these
    particular samples, even if there were no difference in the
    underlying populations. In other words, you don't have a
    whole lot of confidence that you'd be able to replicate that
    particular result.

  8. Jim Bard said:


    "Bob in CT" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    Actually (in case you weren't just joking), the scientific
    method employs a test of statistical significance to
    account for variables not included (and therefore not
    controlled) in the studies between two groups. Thus, there
    can be a difference that mathematically may not be
    statistically significant because of these factors.

    Oops! Sorry! I've been reading "Scientific American.

    That is true, but sometimes the math should be damned. 4
    pounds is significant. Granted, the analysis includes "11 to
    19 pounds (5 to 9 kg) for the low-carb group and 7 to 19
    pounds (3 to 9 kg) for the low-fat group," so the ranges
    overlap. However, if the average is 4 pounds, that's
    significant. And this, of course, depends on what type of
    "average" they were taking. I assume it's the mean and not
    the median. Also, there's no indication in the CNN article
    that they took bodyfat measurements. I'd hazard a guess that
    the overall fat loss of the low carb was greater than the
    fat loss of the low fat.

    --
    Bob in CT Remove ".x" to reply

  9. tcomeau wrote:

    <snip abstracts of two studies>

    Ah, this has more info than the media reports.

    There's the expected results that the lipid profiles and
    glycemic control of low-carbers prove low-carb is the
    healthier diet, but there's other important bits.

    First, the low-carb diet in each study did not include
    calorie restriction, whereas the low-fat diet *did*. Thus
    the fact that low-carbers actually ate fewer calories than
    low-fatters is a significant effect of the diet itself.
    You eat fewer calories without trying. Good stuff for
    weight loss.

    Secondly is the retention rate. It is not broken down in the
    second study, but is in the first study. Three quarters of
    the low-carbers completed the first study as opposed to only
    half the low-fatters. since I assume these groups had no
    large differences in willpower, it appears that much less
    "butching up" is necessary on low-carb.

    These studies together show that a low-carb diet is both
    healthier and easier than a low-calorie/low-fat diet.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more and
    more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a limit
    at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this case,
    from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster the food
    is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes, comprehending the
    taste of fast food

  10. Bob in CT said:

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    That's not what makes a difference significant though.

    Think of it like this... suppose there's a factory that
    makes a widget with an average weight of 1.5 lbs, but is
    supposed to vary in size from 1 - 2 lbs.

    On average, you'd expect any individual widget to weigh 1.5
    lbs. It you weigh one and it weighs 2 lbs, that's not
    surprising, you know it's *supposed* to have that much
    variance. But if you weigh 10 items, and the average weight
    of those 10 is 2 lbs, you start to get suspicious that
    something is wrong. If you measure 100 and they average is
    a 2 lb weight, you're almost certain something is wrong. If
    you measure 1000 and the average weight is 2 lbs, something
    is almost *definetly* wrong. The significance of your
    conslusion that something is wrong increases with the
    sample size.

    Given that retooling a factory is an expensive proposition,
    you want to be pretty sure about the error before fixing
    it. In each case of testing, you're comparing a sample to
    the whole population and guessing what is true about that
    population based on the sample. In the case of one sample,
    you're not very sure about the population at all, but in
    the case of 100 samples, you have more certainty about what
    is going on.

    There's mathematical formulas from statistics that basically
    measure how significant a measurement is, how likely it is
    that a sample describes the population. My example shows
    that sample size is one variable in such equations, but
    there's other variables as well... for example, how much
    consistency there is in a bunch of measurements.

    It's not about the size of the measurement at all... I can
    rewrite the above example to use micrograms or tons instead
    of pounds and the example still works. It's about how likely
    a set of limited measurements correlates to the entire
    population (most of which you haven't measured).

    Significance is basically a measure of how confident you can
    be that a particular conclusion is actually true, not how
    big the conclusion itself is.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for
    persons on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1 ±
    8.7 kg compared with –3.1 ± 8.4 kg for persons on
    the conventional diet. Differences between groups
    were not significant (–1.9 kg [95% CI, –4.9 to
    1.0 kg]; P = 0.20).

    p = 0.20 is a description of the measurable significance,
    and this is a very low measure, comparable to just one
    widget's weight being off in our example above. It means
    they consider this to possibly be just luck and can't know
    if it's real for the population without more study.

    p = 1 means that something is 100%, absolutely, certainly
    true - you can't ever get p = 1 short of measuring the
    entire population. And measuring the entire population isn't
    doing an experiment anymore, that is life, the universe and
    everything. 😉

    Generally, a scientist wants p > 0.90 or > 0.95 or >
    0.99. Which cut-off is acceptable depends on the specific
    type of study.

    But p = 0.2 *definetly* is not good enough to say the
    differences between those groups is true (for that
    particular measurement, other measurments in the study are
    significant).

    So in summary, they are saying they measured a difference,
    but the difference isn't meaningful enough to signify
    anything beyond what happened to their sample.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more and
    more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a limit
    at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this case,
    from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster the food
    is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes, comprehending the
    taste of fast food

  11. Eric Bohlman said:

    Bob in CT <[email hidden]> wrote in
    :"]news:[email hidden]:

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for
    persons on the low-carbohydrate diet was –5.1
    ± 8.7 kg compared with –3.1 ±
    8.4 kg for persons on the conventional diet. Differences
    between groups were not significant (–1.9 kg
    [95% CI, –4.9 to 1.0 kg]; P
    = .20).

    I always wonder how they call 2 kg, about 4 pounds, not
    significant. It's pretty darn significant in my life!

    In statistics, "significant" doesn't mean "personally
    meaningful." In this case, it means that there would be a
    20% chance of finding a difference of at least 1.9 kg
    purely as a result of "luck of the draw" in choosing these
    particular samples, even if there were no difference in
    the underlying populations. In other words, you don't have
    a whole lot of confidence that you'd be able to replicate
    that particular result.

    That is true, but P values can be overrated. If you get one
    that's 0.001, does that mean that it's always going to be
    reproduced? From what I've seen, no. One study will have
    certain results and another will have the opposite results,
    and both will have P values that make them seem great.
    Personally, I think that 4 pounds is significant, and I
    don't think that a P value of 0.2 means that it's not
    significant. Of course, there's no real data here -- perhaps
    two people lost 19 pounds on low carb while only one person
    lost 19 pounds onlow fat. So, you can't really see what's
    going on without access to the data.

    --
    Bob in CT Remove ".x" to reply

  12. "tcomeau" <[email hidden]> píse v diskusním príspevku
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    cnn.comhealth.di
    et.reut/index .html

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Intervention: Low-carbohydrate diet (initially, <20 g of
    carbohydrate daily) plus nutritional supplementation,
    exercise recommendation, and group meetings, or low-fat
    diet (<30% energy from fat, <300 mg of cholesterol daily,
    and deficit of 500 to 1000 kcal/d) plus exercise
    recommendation and group meetings.

    Quoted message said:

    ******

    Low-carb outperformed low-fat in both studies, both in
    weight loss and in lipid profile improvement and yet the
    headline suggests that this was "mixed results". Another
    example of studies showing clear results and the purveyors
    of the message changing the message entirely.

    And now try to imagine results if LC group would follow the
    real LC plan - increasing carbs to 80-120g maintainance
    levels, consuming more veggies and fruits.

    Mirek

  13. "tcomeau" <[email hidden]> píse v diskusním príspevku
    "]news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    cnn.comhealth.di
    et.reut/index .html

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Intervention: Low-carbohydrate diet (initially, <20 g of
    carbohydrate daily) plus nutritional supplementation,
    exercise recommendation, and group meetings, or low-fat
    diet (<30% energy from fat, <300 mg of cholesterol daily,
    and deficit of 500 to 1000 kcal/d) plus exercise
    recommendation and group meetings.

    Quoted message said:

    ******

    Low-carb outperformed low-fat in both studies, both in
    weight loss and in lipid profile improvement and yet the
    headline suggests that this was "mixed results". Another
    example of studies showing clear results and the purveyors
    of the message changing the message entirely.

    And now try to imagine results if LC group would follow the
    real LC plan - increasing carbs to 80-120g maintainance
    levels, consuming more veggies and fruits.

    Mirek

  14. A couple of things not mentioned in this version of the
    research. 1. By your guidelines the first must be tossed, it
    had atkins grant money involved. The first also was only 24
    weeks, the second reflects other similar research, after 1
    year weight status was not significantly different. The most
    intresting results, again reflecting other such research, is
    that trigs are lower and hdl higher in lc.

    2. By the end the daily calorie intake was similar, in the
    year long study, the lead researcher says:

    " Dr. Linda Stern, who led the study, said it confirmed that
    any diet that cuts calories will work.

    "Americans are overweight because we're eating too much
    food and ingesting too many calories," she said in a
    statement."

    Also of interest is the high drop out rate in both diets in
    both studies and the compliance problem. This too reflects
    that most people fail after a time in maintaining weight
    status regardless of diet approach, either these two diet
    types or others.

    Quoted message said:

    cnn.comhealth.d
    iet.reut/index.html

    Headline from CNN:

    Reports: Low-carb has mixed results Tuesday, May 18, 2004
    Posted: 8:55 AM EDT (1255 GMT)

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Low-carbohydrate diets help people
    lose weight in the short term but work no better than other
    diets after a year, researchers reported on Monday.

    The actual abstracts, read the conclusions:

    *******
    A Low-Carbohydrate, Ketogenic Diet versus a Low-Fat Diet To
    Treat Obesity and Hyperlipidemia

    A Randomized, Controlled Trial William S. Yancy, Jr., MD,
    MHS; Maren K. Olsen, PhD; John R. Guyton, MD; Ronna P.
    Bakst, RD; and Eric C. Westman, MD, MHS

    18 May 2004 | Volume 140 Issue 10 | Pages 769-777

    Background: Low-carbohydrate diets remain popular despite a
    paucity of scientific evidence on their effectiveness.

    Objective: To compare the effects of a low-carbohydrate,
    ketogenic diet program with those of a low-fat, low-
    cholesterol, reduced-calorie diet.

    Design: Randomized, controlled trial.

    Setting: Outpatient research clinic.

    Participants: 120 overweight, hyperlipidemic volunteers
    from the community.

    Intervention: Low-carbohydrate diet (initially, <20 g of
    carbohydrate daily) plus nutritional supplementation,
    exercise recommendation, and group meetings, or low-fat
    diet (<30% energy from fat, <300 mg of cholesterol daily,
    and deficit of 500 to 1000 kcal/d) plus exercise
    recommendation and group meetings.

    Measurements: Body weight, body composition, fasting serum
    lipid levels, and tolerability.

    Results: A greater proportion of the low-carbohydrate diet
    group than the low-fat diet group completed the study (76%
    vs. 57%; P = 0.02). At 24 weeks, weight loss was greater in
    the low-carbohydrate diet group than in the low-fat diet
    group (mean change, 12.9% vs. 6.7%; P < .001). Patients in
    both groups lost substantially more fat mass (change, 9.4
    kg with the low-carbohydrate diet vs. 4.8 kg with the low-
    fat diet) than fat-free mass (change, 3.3 kg vs. 2.4 kg,
    respectively). Compared with recipients of the low-fat
    diet, recipients of the low-carbohydrate diet had greater
    decreases in serum triglyceride levels (change, 0.84 mmol/L
    vs. 0.31 mmol/L [74.2
    mg/dL vs. 27.9 mg/dL]; P = 0.004) and greater increases in
    high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels (0.14 mmol/L
    vs. 0.04 mmol/L [5.5 mg/dL vs. 1.6 mg/dL]; P < 0.001).
    Changes in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level did
    not differ statistically (0.04 mmol/L [1.6 mg/dL] with
    the low-carbohydrate diet and 0.19 mmol/L
    [7.4 mg/dL] with the low-fat diet; P = 0.2). Minor adverse
    effects were more frequent in the low-carbohydrate diet
    group.

    Limitations: We could not definitively distinguish effects
    of the low-carbohydrate diet and those of the nutritional
    supplements provided only to that group. In addition,
    participants were healthy and were followed for only 24
    weeks. These factors limit the generalizability of the
    study results.

    Conclusions: Compared with a low-fat diet, a low-
    carbohydrate diet program had better participant retention
    and greater weight loss. During active weight loss, serum
    triglyceride levels decreased more and high-density
    lipoprotein cholesterol level increased more with the low-
    carbohydrate diet than with the low-fat diet.

    **************

    The Effects of Low-Carbohydrate versus Conventional Weight
    Loss Diets in Severely Obese Adults: One-Year Follow-up of
    a Randomized Trial Linda Stern, MD; Nayyar Iqbal, MD;
    Prakash Seshadri, MD; Kathryn L. Chicano, CRNP; Denise A.
    Daily, RD; Joyce McGrory, CRNP; Monica Williams, BS; Edward
    J. Gracely, PhD; and Frederick F. Samaha, MD

    18 May 2004 | Volume 140 Issue 10 | Pages 778-785

    Background: A previous paper reported the 6-month
    comparison of weight loss and metabolic changes in obese
    adults randomly assigned to either a low-carbohydrate diet
    or a conventional weight loss diet.

    Objective: To review the 1-year outcomes between
    these diets.

    Design: Randomized trial.

    Setting: Philadelphia Veterans Affairs Medical Center.

    Participants: 132 obese adults with a body mass index of 35
    kg/m2 or greater; 83% had diabetes or the metabolic
    syndrome.

    Intervention: Participants received counseling to either
    restrict carbohydrate intake to <30 g per day (low-
    carbohydrate diet) or to restrict caloric intake by 500
    calories per day with <30% of calories from fat
    (conventional diet).

    Measurements: Changes in weight, lipid levels, glycemic
    control, and insulin sensitivity.

    Results: By 1 year, mean (±SD) weight change for persons on
    the low-carbohydrate diet was 5.1 ± 8.7 kg compared with
    3.1 ± 8.4 kg for persons on the conventional diet.
    Differences between groups were not significant (1.9 kg
    [95% CI, 4.9 to 1.0 kg]; P = 0.20). For persons on the low-
    carbohydrate diet, triglyceride levels decreased more (P =
    0.044) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels
    decreased less (P = 0.025). As seen in the small group of
    persons with diabetes (n = 54) and after adjustment for
    covariates, hemoglobin A1c levels improved more for persons
    on the low-carbohydrate diet. These more favorable
    metabolic responses to a low-carbohydrate diet remained
    significant after adjustment for weight loss differences.
    Changes in other lipids or insulin sensitivity did not
    differ between groups.

    Limitations: These findings are limited by a high dropout
    rate (34%) and by suboptimal dietary adherence of the
    enrolled persons.

    Conclusion: Participants on a low-carbohydrate diet had
    more favorable overall outcomes at 1 year than did those on
    a conventional diet. Weight loss was similar between
    groups, but effects on atherogenic dyslipidemia and
    glycemic control were still more favorable with a low-
    carbohydrate diet after adjustment for differences in
    weight loss.

    ******

    Low-carb outperformed low-fat in both studies, both in
    weight loss and in lipid profile improvement and yet the
    headline suggests that this was "mixed results". Another
    example of studies showing clear results and the purveyors
    of the message changing the message entirely.

    Now we have scientific evidence that low-carb works and is
    healthy over a one year period.

    TC

  15. Bob in CT said:

    That is true, but P values can be overrated. If you get
    one that's .001, does that mean that it's always going to
    be reproduced? From what I've seen, no. One study will
    have certain results and another will have the opposite
    results, and both will have P values that make them seem
    great. Personally, I think that 4 pounds is significant,
    and I don't think that a P value of 0.2 means that it's
    not significant. Of course, there's no real data here --
    perhaps two people lost 19 pounds on low carb while only
    one person lost 19 pounds onlow fat. So, you can't really
    see what's going on without access to the data.

    P values cannot really be overrated. They measure the exact
    thing you're talking about... how many measurements there
    were, how much variation between measurements, etc.
    Significant means "it signifies" not "it's big". The p value
    shows that the test results do not signify to the populaiton
    at large (for that one mesurement).

    Further, I'm uncertain why you think 4 lbs is "significant"
    anyways. You seem to mean whether 4 lbs is "meaningful."

    I have a water weight loss of somewhere between 5 and 7 lbs,
    near as I can tell from my experience low-carbing. Plus-or-
    minus 4 lbs isn't enough to know if anything is happenning
    with regards to actual weight loss, it *is* a small
    difference compared to the water. My weight loss rate has
    run consistently 4 lbs/month... but realistically, I have to
    see a two-month drop to know anything has actually changed
    given the weight of water I can easily gain or lose. I have
    to see a mesurement bigger than the water loss to know if
    anything genuinely changed.

    Similarly, I started on metformin recently, and both
    starting and subsequent increases in dosage result in an
    effect on my digestive system similar to that described by
    others with respect to ingesting sugar alcohols. Metformin
    is expected to cause an increase in the ate of weight loss,
    because decreased insulin resistance should lead to
    decreased insulin production and therefore decreased fat-
    storage activity. But even though I've seen a large weight
    drop, I can't assume metformin is doing that - I don't know
    yet. The average contents of the intestines has been
    measured at 8 lbs, and given that my "new" weight loss is
    smaller than 8 lbs, I can't know if I'm losing weight any
    faster than before until the side effects stabilize. The
    side effects are bigger than what I'm trying to measure.

    Further, in a year-long study... 4 lbs *isn't* significant.
    I wouldn't do something difficult or unpleasant or unhealthy
    for a year for a lousy 4 lbs. It's not worth it. It doesn't
    mean enough, not by itself. That a low-carb diet provides
    better control of my blood glucose, causes 4 lbs per *month*
    of weight loss, makes me feel better, and is pleasant and
    satisfactory to eat - these are meaningful.

    So... both the notion that p indicates the results are not
    significant (in the scientific sense, where significance
    means how much relevance the results have when extrapolated
    to the population) or in the sense you are using
    "significant" to mean something like "meaningful" - I can't
    see 4 lbs as significant.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more and
    more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a limit
    at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this case,
    from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster the food
    is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes, comprehending the
    taste of fast food

  16. Quoted message said:

    Also of interest is the high drop out rate in both diets
    in both studies and the compliance problem. This too
    reflects that most people fail after a time in maintaining
    weight status regardless of diet approach, either these
    two diet types or others.

    76% of the low-carbers completed the year-long study...
    whereas only 57% of the low-fatters did.

    This says volumes about the compliance problem.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more and
    more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a limit
    at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this case,
    from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster the food
    is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes, comprehending the
    taste of fast food

  17. Quoted message said:

    Also of interest is the high drop out rate in both diets
    in both studies and the compliance problem. This too
    reflects that most people fail after a time in maintaining
    weight status regardless of diet approach, either these
    two diet types or others.

    76% of the low-carbers completed the year-long study...
    whereas only 57% of the low-fatters did.

    This says volumes about the compliance problem.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more and
    more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a limit
    at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this case,
    from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster the food
    is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes, comprehending the
    taste of fast food

  18. Compliance and drop out are two different things. The first
    was how well folk followed the instructions and the second
    how many quit, which might or not have to do with the first.
    The numbers you mention were with the 6 month study, the
    year long study saw a 35 percent drop out rate in both
    groups and was the source of the compliance statement by the
    lead researcher. Drop out is a problem with all diets and
    points the return to previous weight status most dieters
    experience regardless of diet type.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Also of interest is the high drop out rate in both diets
    in both studies and the compliance problem. This too
    reflects that most people fail after a time in
    maintaining weight status regardless of diet approach,
    either these two diet types or others.

    76% of the low-carbers completed the year-long study...
    whereas only 57% of the low-fatters did.

    This says volumes about the compliance problem.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more
    and more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a
    limit at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this
    case, from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster
    the food is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes,
    comprehending the taste of fast food

  19. Compliance and drop out are two different things. The first
    was how well folk followed the instructions and the second
    how many quit, which might or not have to do with the first.
    The numbers you mention were with the 6 month study, the
    year long study saw a 35 percent drop out rate in both
    groups and was the source of the compliance statement by the
    lead researcher. Drop out is a problem with all diets and
    points the return to previous weight status most dieters
    experience regardless of diet type.

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Also of interest is the high drop out rate in both diets
    in both studies and the compliance problem. This too
    reflects that most people fail after a time in
    maintaining weight status regardless of diet approach,
    either these two diet types or others.

    76% of the low-carbers completed the year-long study...
    whereas only 57% of the low-fatters did.

    This says volumes about the compliance problem.

    --
    As you accelerate your food, it takes exponentially more
    and more energy to increase its velocity, until you hit a
    limit at C. This energy has to come from somewhere; in this
    case, from the food's nutritional value. Thus, the faster
    the food is, the worse it gets. -- Mark Hughes,
    comprehending the taste of fast food

  20. tcomeau said:

    Now we have scientific evidence that low-carb works and is
    healthy over a one year period.

    TC

    Kicks butt, huh?

    "The well-known nutrition plan now appears to be on a
    similar footing as numerous other commercial diets:
    effective for temporary trimming but unproven as a method
    for reducing weight-related health risks over a lifetime."
    intelihealth.com383
    119.html?d=dmtICNNews

    --
    jmk in NC

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