Donovan Rebbechi <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...
Quoted message said:Quoted message said:Looks like he ripped off his bib right there at the
first, 10K split - he must´ve been in trouble long
before that, his 39:06 split is *not* normal!
Quoted message said:A pace of 117min for 30k (eg 39 per 10k) is comparable to
a 2:50 marathon. Given that he was planning on using a
2:52 or so as his BQ, this seems about the right pace for
him. I agree that it looks slow compared to his 5k time,
but he's only been back at it a fairly short time, and is
still undertrained > for the big distances.
I wasn´t using either his marathon goal (which I didn´t
know) or his 5K tine (which I´d completely forgotten - since
I don´t run that distance myself, I don´t seem to be able to
place that particular piece of information - and which I
couldn´t and wouldn´t use as a starting point here) to gauge
his "normal" split.
I had a distinct but vague recollection that his "dress
rehearsal" (that is, presumably run at ATB race pace) HM
time was 1:21 which would have given a 38:20 split - and
losing 40+ sec on the first, flat split wouldn´t be normal
at this level.
IMHO a 30K for a fast runner is much closer to a HM than a M
and being somewhat undertrained would tend to hurt most
after the 30K point.
But granted, I may have made a hasty step somewhere...
BTW I got curious and had a look at the results: 15 of the
73 runners who finished sub-2:00 had a 10K split slower than
39:06 (the slowest split was 40:36), and the best of them
ran sub-1:54 on a 39:51 split!
(I didn´t bother to account for the difference between net
and chip times; for these runners it was probably quite
negligible.)
Anders