General fitness, health and nutrition · Public discussion

Possible Model Misuse

Started by John Edser · · Last activity · 2 posts · 274 views

This thread is locked and is currently read-only.

Thread details

What we know about this thread

Original section
General fitness, health and nutrition
Published
5 February 2004
Last activity
8 February 2004
Original author
John Edser
Posts
2
Discussion status
Public discussion
Total views
274
Views / 30 days
0

The navigation and discussion metadata provide context. Posts remain in their original chronological order.

Showing posts 1–2 of 2
Posts remain in their original chronological order.

Text size
  1. Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:

    Equating "fitness" with "that which replicates the most" is confusing nonsense.

    Quoted message said:

    Not at all. "replicates the most" is quite clear indeed. It is simple English. What replicates the
    most is whatever replicates the most. Period.

    Quoted message said:

    Please feel free to define fitness, without using the concept of the most number of replicants.

    [snip] GH:- I must agree with Tim here. The essential concept of fitness is much better captured as
    the rate of reproduction, rather than the number of replicants. At the risk of overplaying an
    example that others and I have brought to sbe before, imagine a population with 2 kinds of
    individuals; type A always has 10 offspring at the end of a 100 year lifespan, while type B always
    has 10 offspring at the end of a 1 year lifespan. I think it is pretty clear what this population
    will look like after a millennium. Clearly, a selective bias will result in the evolution of the
    population toward the faster reproducing form. I think this thought experiment provides a clear
    example of higher fitness without a difference in replicant number.

    JE:- Many more variables exist in nature than "faster reproduction". Always, at least one other
    variable must be included otherwise variable can be misrepresented as a constant.

    Neo Darwinists do _not_ restrict their fitness count to only fertile forms reproduced, but
    Darwinists, do for very obvious reasons. A form that is born sterile can only have a zero
    independent fitness until it becomes fertile. For a form to be able to donate fitness, it must have
    an independent fitness to donate. This is only possible for a form that is born sterile (all forms,
    even single cells are born sterile) but becomes fertile. Only when a form matures to fertile
    adulthood, and then becomes sterile rather than remaining fertile is organism fitness altruism
    (OFA) proven.

    In Neo Darwinism one unit of selection is just one gene replicated into however, just the next
    _organism_ generation (no matter if that organism is fertile or sterile!) and not the next _gene_
    generation. This means that Neo Darwinists do _not_ make a logically self consistent unit of
    selection count so their results remain in very serious error. Such a major error disallows
    Hamiltonian OFA to be caused by supposed selfish geneism. For OFA to be just a logical possibility,
    gene fitness counts must include all mitotic replications of that gene because the fitness of a
    parental gene is the total number of gene replications by mitosis and meiosis over a defined period.

    For Darwinists one unit of selection is one fertile organism reproduced. From a "genes eye view"
    this is one gene replicated into the next _fertile_ organism population. Here counting genes is just
    a useful way to count fertile organisms. Here only zero OFA exists. If you add just one more
    variable such as a supposed higher risk of death associated with faster reproduction then it now
    becomes clear that "faster reproduction" does not always win when the total number of _immature_
    forms reproduced are the same. In 200 years the slower form reproduces 20 infertile offspring but
    the faster reproduces 2000. If the slow type raises 10 to fertile adulthood but the slow type only
    raises 9 because the faster type included almost no parental care, then the slow type is selected.
    If both types raise 10 then no difference exists. If the faster type raises more each year than the
    slow type then the faster type is selected. If you define type A as raising 10 offspring every 100
    years and type B as raising only 10 offspring every year, then I doubt if they can be validly
    supposed as the same type of form so they would be very unlikely to compete within the same
    Darwinian population.

    Neo Darwinists misuse over simplified models _consistently_ and simply refuse to even consider any
    possibility of model misuse. Indeed, nobody agrees on what the difference is between a model, a
    hypothesis and a theory. GH suggests all models are testable but Prof. Felsenstein suggests no
    models are testable. GH wishes the "tyranny of refutation" could be banished from evolutionary
    theory(!). Most Neo Darwinians talk as if Popper and Godel did not even exist. In short, the
    epistemology of Neo Darwinism is, chaotic. It is impossible to start a discussion on POSSIBLE MODEL
    MISUSE because it appears to be simultaneously, gene and ego, centric. However, I will try and will
    always keep on trying, to raise a rational, unbiased discussion of this critical topic.

    Misuse here was:

    1) The massive oversimplification of a fitness count to include infertile forms.

    2) The ERROR of a non self consistent unit of selection count.

    3) Reducing all variables to just one. At all times a minimum of TWO variables must be included
    otherwise a variable becomes a defacto constant.

    Respectfully,

    John Edser Independent Researcher

    PO Box 266 Church Pt NSW 2105 Australia

    [email hidden]

  2. "John Edser" <[email hidden]> wrote in message news:<[email hidden]>...

    Quoted message said:

    Neo Darwinists do _not_ restrict their fitness count to only fertile forms reproduced, but
    Darwinists, do for very obvious reasons. A form that is born sterile can only have a zero
    independent fitness until it becomes fertile. For a form to be able to donate fitness, it must
    have an independent fitness to donate. This is only possible for a form that is born sterile (all
    forms, even single cells are born sterile) but becomes fertile. Only when a form matures to
    fertile adulthood, and then becomes sterile rather than remaining fertile is organism fitness
    altruism (OFA) proven.

    I believe that John is confusing two different usages of the word fitness here.

    One is the fitness of results achieved. It is (in principle) a measurable quantity. Everyone,
    Darwinists and neo-Darwinists alike, wants it to represent some kind of long-term success, but,
    since it is supposed to be measurable, is forced to limit the period of measurement to something
    like a single generation. In a species without polymorphism that follows a predictable life cycle,
    you can measure fitness by choosing ANY point in the life cycle, observing for about a generation,
    and then counting the number of children that have achieved the SAME point in the life cycle. That
    is, you can measure from conception to conception, from birth to birth, or from fertility to
    fertility. The results are roughly the same, regardless of which definition you choose. However,
    there are some technical advantages and disadvantages to consider in making this choice.

    One factor in favor of the fertility-to-fertility definition of fitness is that this stage in the
    life cycle is probably easier to count than some other stages. Another advantage is that a larger
    fraction of the organisms will have a non-zero fitness. (The fitness of an oak tree is extremely
    variable if measured from seed to seed - it is less variable if measured from adult tree to adult
    tree). On the other hand, the birth-to-birth definition has the advantage (particularly for
    organisms without much parental care) that it puts the responsibility for maximizing fitness in the
    right place - on the genome of the child. (The fitness of a spawning salmon, if measured fertility-to-
    fertility, would be the number of children that survive to spawn. But, if measured birth-to-birth,
    each minnow is seen as responsible for its own fate.)

    And that brings us to the second usage of the word fitness - expected fitness. Here, we are trying
    to predict, based on the genotype of the organism, just what the average measured fitness for
    organisms of that genotype will be. It should be clear that an explanation of how genes affect the
    fitness of a minnow should probably be talking about the genes of the minnow, rather than the
    genes of the parent. On the other hand, in a species with parental care - such as [censored] sapiens -
    the survival of a child may well be due more to the genes of the parents than to the genes of the
    child itself.

    What about sterile forms in eusocial insects? What about forms like the worker castes in Melopena
    that have some fertility, but less fertility than queens? Now, we no longer have a situation in
    which there is a single simple life cycle. The definition of measured fitness becomes more
    problematic. A reasonable solution to the problem makes use of Fisher's notion of "reproductive
    value". A newly fertile queen has one value, a newly semi-fertile worker another, a newly fertile
    drone has yet a third number for reproductive value, and a fully sterile form has zero reproductive
    value. Immature forms can also be given a reproductive value - it is the value of the mature form
    discounted to take into account the probablility of death before maturity. Now, given this
    conceptual machinery from Fisher, we can define a measurable fitness for any organism. It is the sum
    of the reproductive values of all offspring. Neo-Darwinists, if they are sane, will not count
    sterile offspring in their counts. Or rather, they will count them, multiplying each one by a
    reproductive value of zero. I am talking here about BASIC fitness. John seems to believe that neo-
    Darwinists are insane - that is wishful thinking on his part. They are not stupid enough to count
    sterile forms as if they were fertile.

    What about INCLUSIVE fitness? That is more complicated. In social situations, the genotype of a form
    has an effect not only on its own survival, but also on the survival of relatives and complete
    strangers. Hamilton suggests defining a new quantity called inclusive fitness in which each genome
    takes credit for ALL of the effects it produces in producing copies of itself. That is, if I help a
    full sibling, I should get half the credit for the extra offspring that my sibling produces. But, if
    my sibling helps me, he gets half credit for my extra offspring. That is the definition of inclusive
    fitness. It is basic fitness, plus a little bit for helping relatives, minus a little bit for being
    helped by relatives.

    Fisher, ignoring social issues, proved that natural selection acts to maximize basic fitness.
    Hamilton [1964] proved that, when social issues are taken into account, natural selection maximizes
    inclusive fitness, rather than basic fitness. The trouble is that, whereas basic fitness is easy to
    measure, inclusive fitness is next to impossible to measure. To measure it, you have to decide how
    much fitness credit to transfer from the recipient of altruism to the donor. That involves much more
    understanding of the natural history of the organism than is currently possible. (Fisher's
    reproductive value required some understanding of natural history - Hamilton requires much more.)

    It is important to realize that you can define an inclusive fitness given any of the competing
    definitions of basic fitness. That is, you can have an inclusive fertility-to-fertility fitness. In
    fact, that is what Hamilton proposed in 1964. Later, recognizing that parental care can be thought
    of as a kind of altruism to relatives, there was a transition to using birth-to-birth or conception-to-
    conception definitions of basic fitness.

    The one thing that I believe is causing the most confusion for John is that sterile forms are
    treated as real players in the natural selection game. They have no basic fitness, but they may have
    an inclusive fitness. They act as programmed by their genes, and their actions have an effect on
    gene survival. It is possible to define an inclusive reproductive value, so that these forms no
    longer count as nothings in their parents fitness accounting. But, under no circumstances can they
    be thought of as counting as much as mature reproductives in the fitness counts of their parents.

    Quoted message said:

    In Neo Darwinism one unit of selection is just one gene replicated into however, just the next
    _organism_ generation (no matter if that organism is fertile or sterile!) and not the next _gene_
    generation. This means that Neo Darwinists do _not_ make a logically self consistent unit of
    selection count so their results remain in very serious error. Such a major error disallows
    Hamiltonian OFA to be caused by supposed selfish geneism. For OFA to be just a logical
    possibility, gene fitness counts must include all mitotic replications of that gene because the
    fitness of a parental gene is the total number of gene replications by mitosis and meiosis over a
    defined period.

    I can't believe that John is serious in this criticism. It would be insane for any evolutionary
    theorist to count all mitotic divisions as generations simply because EVERYONE - Darwinist and neo-
    Darwinist alike knows that it is organisms that die and reproduce. Everyone is also in agreement
    that the thing that changes over time is gene frequencies.

    Is John suggesting that Hamilton's theory would be improved by counting mitoses, or is John simply
    trying to discredit Hamilton by reductio ad absurdum? No one except John, as far as I can tell,
    thinks that a failure to count mitoses is an internal contradiction in neo-Darwinism.

    Quoted message said:

    For Darwinists one unit of selection is one fertile organism reproduced. From a "genes eye view"
    this is one gene replicated into the next _fertile_ organism population. Here counting genes is
    just a useful way to count fertile organisms. [snip]

    Quoted message said:

    Neo Darwinists misuse over simplified models _consistently_ and simply refuse to even consider any
    possibility of model misuse. Indeed, nobody agrees on what the difference is between a model, a
    hypothesis and a theory. GH suggests all models are testable but Prof. Felsenstein suggests no
    models are testable. GH wishes the "tyranny of refutation" could be banished from evolutionary
    theory(!). Most Neo Darwinians talk as if Popper and Godel did not even exist. In short, the
    epistemology of Neo Darwinism is, chaotic. It is impossible to start a discussion on POSSIBLE
    MODEL MISUSE because it appears to be simultaneously, gene and ego, centric. However, I will try
    and will always keep on trying, to raise a rational, unbiased discussion of this critical topic.

    Misuse here was:

    1) The massive oversimplification of a fitness count to include infertile forms.

    I suggest that the oversimplification is in John's understanding of the theory, rather than in the
    theory itself. The full neo-Darwinist account of fitness addresses all of John's complaints.

    Quoted message said:

    2) The ERROR of a non self consistent unit of selection count.

    I am not sure exactly what this means, but let me point out that economists refer to households as
    "units of economic decision making". In using this terminology, they are not making the assumption
    that rich and poor households purchase the same amount of goods.

    Quoted message said:

    3) Reducing all variables to just one. At all times a minimum of TWO variables must be included
    otherwise a variable becomes a defacto constant.

    I am not sure I understand this one. No doubt clarification, or at least repetition, will be
    forthcoming.

Active in the last 60 minutes

Active in this thread

0 users · 0 guests ·0 bots ·0 total

No signed-in users are active right now.

No known search crawlers active right now.