Increase in power

Nobody can tell you what your potential is based on the info provided. What has been your training regimen leading to your current 251W for 20mins? How many hours per week do you plan to train? What is your objective in terms of duration? What was your best 20min power when you first got your PT? Again, nobody can tell you what your potential is, but at least this info may generate some useful responses on how to increase your target power to your potential (whatever that is).

Brad Wiggins can do about 6.5 watts/kg for one hour, so with a perfect training program, minimum body fat/muscle mass, you can probably achieve somewhere between 5 and 6.5 watts/kg for one hour(add 5 % for 20 minutes).

RDO is right, folks ask this question all the time but no one can predict how far or fast you can take your training. If you want to find out how far you can take this then you've got to put in the time, do the training and see what you can accomplish.

Quoted post said:

It also seems like it is harder to perform on the trainer. Is it just lack of motivation or something else?

Many if not most riders find it harder to sustain the same power indoors vs outside. A lot of reasons offered, but the big three that come up again and again are:

- Temperature rise and cooling as we have a lot of heat to get rid of while standing still and pounding out the watts. Humans aren't terribly efficient and for every watt you are able to apply to the pedals roughly 3 to 4 watts is dissipated as waste heat that we've got to get rid of. IOW, while pedaling away at the 265 watts you mentioned you've got roughly a kilowatt of waste heat to get rid of. Outdoors this is a lot easier as we move through the air, indoors even a really big industrial fan may not be enough though it is a very good start.

- Inertia. Bike trainers, especially those with small flywheels don't do a very good job of mimicking the momentum of an actual bike rolling down the road carrying our body weight. The trainer is a bit like climbing a very steep hill from an inertia standpoint as we have very little momentum and every pedal stroke is like starting from scratch even if the trainer's power curve is such that we're not sustaining the power required by a steep hill. Some trainers are better than others in this respect like the Lemond Revolution or others with very large flywheels.

- Boredom and focus. Face it, sitting still and working hard just isn't as much fun as actually riding a bike and going somewhere with all the sensory input and feel of cycling. It's pretty easy to get distracted or lose focus while sweating buckets and staring at the wall. Good music or videos can help but it's still not that much fun to ride nowhere. Some folks adjust to this better than others.

Bottom line, the trainer can be tough mentally and your power numbers may drop a bit during indoor riding. But if the alternative is no training or very poor training in dangerous icy conditions then it's a whole lot better than nothing. FWIW when I lived in the mountains I'd be on the trainer for nearly seven months every winter. It wasn't a ton of fun and yeah my indoor power numbers would be about 5 to 10% lower than outdoors even though I was suffering plenty during things like 2x20 intervals. But each spring when I got outdoors I'd find my fitness had improved and my power numbers had climbed.

-Dave

Thanks for all replies. My ambition is to do about 5-7 hours per week. During the winter most of the time Will be indoors on a trainer. I Will have very few sessions with 2 hours or more since it is cold and snowy outdoors. This year i have done about 6500 km and roughly 300 hours of training. My goal is to Increase my FTP and hopefully have a 20 minute over 300 watts in may. Not sure if that is possible. What do you think? I know it is very hard for anyone to predict My development, therefore I am more interersted in Your training to get comparables.. How do you train and how fast have you been making progress? Are there any studies? I know it depends on a LOT of different things, but still it would give me something to compare against. Thanks Dave for Your comments regarding trainers. Inertia is a new term for me, but thats how it fells on the trainer. You sort of have to get going in every stroke... -Matt

If what you want is a data point for reference purposes, attached is an analysis of a 23-week build phase during which I increased my FTP from 225W to 300W. Note that my high-intensity efforts represent a mix of L4-L7, but that's because my routes include a lot of climbs < 10mins and I typically ride them at ~90% of my max power for the duration and then go easy on the descent. The analysis presents total hours per week and allocation of TSS by level. Note that my FTP probably increased in a more continuous manner than presented, but I don't measure my FTP very frequently. My objective is to increase my FTP, not measure it. I averaged about 11 hrs/wk for the whole period, but that includes a three-week period with < 5hrs/wk. The weeks when I was really training averaged about 15 hrs/wk. Also, the analysis stops at 23 weeks, but I continued to build after the analysis period and peaked at 325W about 6 weeks later.

Nice RDO, just for context was this the first time you achieved an FTP in that range or was this a rebuild near or perhaps a bit greater than a previous season highpoint? IOW, prior to this build was 225 watts your highest FTP to date or was that an off season or post layoff low after a previous FTP nearer the 300 watt level?

-Dave

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

Nice RDO, just for context was this the first time you achieved an FTP in that range or was this a rebuild near or perhaps a bit greater than a previous season highpoint? IOW, prior to this build was 225 watts your highest FTP to date or was that an off season or post layoff low after a previous FTP nearer the 300 watt level?

-Dave

Dave, this was the first time I achieved an FTP > 300W with a power meter. I am sure I had a higher FTP years ago when I was more actively racing, but that was in the pre-PM days.

Wow, very impressive one year ramp even considering a previous racing background.

My background is similar, raced from the early '80s through the mid '90s then hung up the bike for a decade till I picked it back up in '06 and picked up my first PM about the same time.

My first few efforts at sustained 20 minute intervals came in around 220 watts with plenty of suffering at that level. Looking back at annual high points for 20 minute efforts in WKO+ since then I come up with:

2006: 268
2007: 313
2008: 313
2009: 321 - Moved from 6800' to sea level
2010: 329 - Switched from PT to SRM
2011: 328
2012: 332

So better progress some years than others, less than it might appear once you consider the altitude and measurement system change but overall movement in the right direction.

-Dave

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by daveryanwyoming [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

So better progress some years than others, less than it might appear once you consider the altitude and measurement system change but overall movement in the right direction.

Nice. Very consistent. I'm envious of your SRM. I'm spec'ing out a couple of new bikes (road and TT) with SRMs and Di2s plus a secret weapon of my own design. Do you have Di2?

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by RapDaddyo [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

Nice. Very consistent. I'm envious of your SRM. I'm spec'ing out a couple of new bikes (road and TT) with SRMs and Di2s plus a secret weapon of my own design. Do you have Di2?

Nahh, I'm and old school retrogrouch. SRM wired PCV systems on my bikes and SRAM force on most bikes.

But I can guess where you're going with this and that's definitely closing the loop on power based training. Nice!

-Dave

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by matt76 [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

I recently started training with power (power tap). As a beginner I have a fel question...
I have used the power tap for about a year. My best 20 minutes are at 265 watts, last week I managed 251 watts on the trainer indoors.
If I train good (hard) how much can I Increase My FTP or 20 min in à month, quarter or half à year? What are Your experience?
It also seems like it is harder to perform on the trainer. Is it just lack of motivation or something else?
Thanks!
// Matt

You are younger than me. You have higher 20 minute power than I me. But ...

Next few months I will sit on my trainer outside in 20-30 degree weather. I will wear summer bicycling clothes - short sleve jersey and shorts. I will pedal at 85+% FTP foran hour. When I quit after an hour, my towel will be dripping wet, my shorts and jersey will be dripping wet, my whole body will be dripping wet.

If my goal was to reach 300w next by spring, I would be on my trainer outside for 2 hours a day. And any day the weather allowed I would be on the road for 4-5 hours pushing hard.

---

You motivation is lacking.

An old Guy said:

You motivation is lacking.

You're in no position to say that, especially when you tell giant whoppers like that tale you just made up.

Please stop feeding the troll... the more food you give him, the more motivated he is to come in and derail threads. Ignore ignore ignore!

Amazing figures from both of you 50 to 75 watts in 6 months seems possible but stil a big challange!

POGATA said:

Brad Wiggins can do about 6.5 watts/kg for one hour, so with a perfect training program, minimum body fat/muscle mass, you can probably achieve somewhere between 5 and 6.5 watts/kg for one hour(add 5 % for 20 minutes). Â

Bradley Wiggins has more natural talent in his pinky then most people have in their entire body. It would be very difficult to define a given point, as everyone has varying levels of talent, but there is certainly a point when despite any amount of structured training/dieting most individuals simply will not reach. I am sure someone like Dave has more perspective as he has worked with many different individuals, but I am going to say a lot of people don't have the ability to crack 4 watts/kg. Again this is just really a guess, but I have seen enough hard working individuals never crack this mark.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by matt76 [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

Amazing figures from both of you 50 to 75 watts in 6 months seems possible but stil a big challange!

It depends on your own physiology and your training program. But, when you look at my case study, for example, bear in mind that I was doing more L4 per week than you are planning to ride in total per week. If you double your training volume, and assuming your body can handle the increased volume, you will increase your chances of reaching your goal.

Damn Dave THAT'S Impressive! Your progression over the years that is.

Quoted post said:

Originally Posted by bgoetz [IMG]/img/forum/go_quote.gif[/IMG]

Bradley Wiggins has more natural talent in his pinky then most people have in their entire body. It would be very difficult to define a given point, as everyone has varying levels of talent, but there is certainly a point when despite any amount of structured training/dieting most individuals simply will not reach.
I am sure someone like Dave has more perspective as he has worked with many different individuals, but I am going to say a lot of people don't have the ability to crack 4 watts/kg. Again this is just really a guess, but I have seen enough hard working individuals never crack this mark.

Wiggins has marginally more talent than most people.

With a perfect training programme, minimum muscle mass/body fat, an adult male(age 20-35) can crack at least 5 w/kg, after several thousand hours of training.

Hard work is not the key, doing what makes you ride faster is the key. Alot of people think being constantly tired when riding is the key to being faster, i.e. always going hard.

POGATA said:

With a perfect training programme, minimum muscle mass/body fat, an adult male(age 20-35) can crack at least 5 w/kg, after several thousand hours of training.

Do you have any evidence to support this? I would say anyone willing to dedicate basically everything for 5+ years (assuming that by several thousand you mean 5-7 thousand), has the talent to break 5 watts per kg. IOW to have that much dedication one has to be getting results, the ones that are not talented enough to get results would be weeded out by the training program alone.