Paris-Nice 2010

almost impossible to keep from tipping contador. i would think he won't make the same mistake this year as last.

The route doesn't suit conti. 3km 10% climb is valv and sanchez territory. however, if he pulls out a sensational prologue again, it will be hard to beat him.

It comes down to the prologue and that stage. time diffs won't be big

I wouldn't say that the route doesn't suite Contador. As we could see in 2009 TDF, every climb, no matter how steep or long, is place where he can make a difference.
The question is - how does he feel. If he feels strong enough, he'll go for the victory. Caisse should be the strongest opponent. And when we talk about Contador vs. Caisse, we shouldn't forget last year's Dauphine and the fact Contador's contract expires at the end of the season.
Leipheimer should be expected to put the pressure on Contador too. Saxo doesn't look like they'll go for the victory for any price, but they need strong showing because of sponsors..
Contador, Valverde, L.L. Sanchez, Samuel Sanchez, Leipheimer and a rider from Saxo (Schleck or Fuglsang) are men who'll decide the winner, in my opinion.
Not sure about form of the others like Valjavec, Danielson, Vandevelde, Cunego, Kreuziger (he might do well), Van den Broeck, Chavanel, Garate, Martin.

Andrija said:

I wouldn't say that the route doesn't suite Contador. As we could see in 2009 TDF, every climb, no matter how steep or long, is place where he can make a difference.
The question is - how does he feel. If he feels strong enough, he'll go for the victory. Caisse should be the strongest opponent. And when we talk about Contador vs. Caisse, we shouldn't forget last year's Dauphine and the fact Contador's contract expires at the end of the season.
Leipheimer should be expected to put the pressure on Contador too. Saxo doesn't look like they'll go for the victory for any price, but they need strong showing because of sponsors..
Contador, Valverde, L.L. Sanchez, Samuel Sanchez, Leipheimer and a rider from Saxo (Schleck or Fuglsang) are men who'll decide the winner, in my opinion.
Not sure about form of the others like Valjavec, Danielson, Vandevelde, Cunego, Kreuziger (he might do well), Van den Broeck, Chavanel, Garate, Martin.

That is a very astute point that you make about Contador and his contract ending :
Caisse would seem to be the natural team for Contador to race with.

Echevarria has made overtures to Contador in the past and given how Ecehvarria expertly managed Indurain, I think it would be wise to consider any approach from Caisse.

limerickman said:

That is a very astute point that you make about Contador and his contract ending :
Caisse would seem to be the natural team for Contador to race with.

Echevarria has made overtures to Contador in the past and given how Ecehvarria expertly managed Indurain, I think it would be wise to consider any approach from Caisse.

Also, we all remember that Astana's Pro Tour limbo during the autumn and speculations about Contador's future.
Contador needs certainty regarding the team he rides for (on long term basis), in order to acomplish everything he's capable of. Caisse looks like natural choice, especially since Valverde accepted the option of riding with Contador in the same team.
If plans about his own (Contador's) team, sponsored by Alonso, fail (which is likely at the moment), then Caisse should have priority.

i'd really like to see some challenge to contador in the race, i'm still sticking with contador. he really likes to win the races he enters, except when he wouldn't help evans overtake valverde. & i figure he's more than a little red-faced about bonking last year. the interest for me is how will his team look over the course of the race. should get an indication of the risk of getting isolated he will face later in the year.

slovakguy said:

almost impossible to keep from tipping contador. i would think he won't make the same mistake this year as last.

And since there is only one mistake possible, that should be the end of mistakes for Contador.

Grater said:

The route doesn't suit conti. 3km 10% climb is valv and sanchez territory.

Huh? And which Sanchez? It's actually hard to imagine Contador having trouble on any kind of climb with either Sanchez. A short power climb could put Valverde on an equal footing, at best. And Valverde should be able to win a sprint to the line if he can hang on that far. LL might still be stronger than Contador in the prolouge this early in the season.

limerickman said:

and given how Ecehvarria expertly managed Indurain.

Yeap, he managed one of the biggest dopers of all time in Indurain - another one in Angel Arroyo - another one in Valverde - another one in Francisco Mancebo. It's hard to imagine how good Contador could be with that kind of management. Of course Echavarri is more concerned with finding a sponsor for now.

limerickman said:

That is a very astute point that you make about Contador and his contract ending :
Caisse would seem to be the natural team for Contador to race with.

Echevarria has made overtures to Contador in the past and given how Ecehvarria expertly managed Indurain, I think it would be wise to consider any approach from Caisse.

Maybe we'll see more of Contador paying lipservice to Caisse just as we did in last years Dauphine...

It should be interesting not only on the road but after the race too. The AFLD don't want to play and have "taken their ball" and will not pass on any information from dope controls to the UCI. Oh fecking whaaaaaa.

tambourlain said:

And since there is only one mistake possible, that should be the end of mistakes for Contador.

well, i appreciate that you've pointed out that more than one mistake is possible. what i'm driving at is this; contador has, as a youngish g.t. champion made several mistakes during races that have cost him the top step or placed his chances for victory at risk, but he (& his various d.s.'s) has rarely repeated the mistake. at this moment, i'd give contador his due for his learning abilities, although i'd hold off putting him on the same level as cav's intellect.

Judging by prologue results and fact that there won't be many opportunities, Leipheimer and Contador will be fighting for the overall. L.L. Sanchez, S. Sanchez, Kreuziger and Tondo should be there too. Voigt could make good result, but I can't see him hanging on with climbers even on this kind of route.
All others are already in significant deficit, but everything is possible in this time of year and at the beginning of the season.
Very strong ride from Boom. Although he started much before favorites he still clocked the best time.

Andrija said:

Judging by prologue results and fact that there won't be many opportunities, Leipheimer and Contador will be fighting for the overall.

Levi is not in his best condition yet. The ITT is is strength, so he did okay today. But he can only climb with the best climbers when he is peaked. I don't think that it's just down to Contador and Leipheimer yet.

Did you guys see 19 year-old PETER SAGAN get 5th in the prologue?!?!?!?!!!!! Crazy.....

Haussler will take stage two.

No, this is not over yet. Leipheimer won't be top 3 in the GC by the time Nice comes around.

At the moment either Contador or Sanchez will finish one/two. You choose the order. The other spot is up for grabs between Valverde, Rodriguez, Sanchez, Kreuziger and Tondo. Maybe Leipheimer, but he'll lose his ground on the climb to Mende whereas the others won't. At the end of the Mende stage I guarantee you that Contador and Sanchez will be first and second.

Some pictures of the TT yesterday posted on my flickr page. Managed to get some of Boom too🙂

Paris to Nice - a set on Flickr

That was some ride by Boom.

fark me : 19yo.

My pick for the first stage is Greipel. Everything but mass sprint would be surprise.
Chicchi, Roelandts, Bonnet, Duque, Bozic and Haussler should be there too.

I'll hold to my prediction about overall. Although people here don't see Leipheimer as a contender, I think he'll make good result. He's leader of a very competitive new team and has to take all opportunities he gets. And I don't believe he's that far off the climbing form in comparison with others.

Andrija said:

My pick for the first stage is Greipel. Everything but mass sprint would be surprise.
Chicchi, Roelandts, Bonnet, Duque, Bozic and Haussler should be there too.

I'll hold to my prediction about overall. Although people here don't see Leipheimer as a contender, I think he'll make good result. He's leader of a very competitive new team and has to take all opportunities he gets. And I don't believe he's that far off the climbing form in comparison with others.

I fancy Chicchi if it goes down to a bunch sprint (most likely). Although he won't have anything like Columbias train supporting him. If Qatar is anything to go by he won't need it, he certainly has the speed to beat Greipel.