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Re: The antidote

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UK and Europe
Published
12 October 2007
Last activity
14 October 2007
Original author
Simon Brooke
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14
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  1. in message <[email hidden]>, Brian Robertson

    ('[email protected]') said:

    I don't know if anyone else has said this on the thread, but you really
    should wear a helmet. I mean that not as a patronising git, but as
    someone with the near death experiences to prove it.

    You're not a patronising git, just misinformed and ignorant. Wearing a
    helmet very slightly raises (not lowers) your risk of serious head injury
    or death, but not sufficiently to make them actively dangerous to wear if
    you prefer them. It's not as if this was a serious risk anyway - cycling
    is a very safe activity.

    --
    [email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

    Morning had broken, and there was nothing we could do but wait
    patiently for the RAC to arrive.

  2. Simon Brooke said:

    in message <[email hidden]>, Brian

    Robertson ('[email protected]') said:

    I don't know if anyone else has said this on the thread, but you
    really should wear a helmet. I mean that not as a patronising git,
    but as someone with the near death experiences to prove it.

    You're not a patronising git, just misinformed and ignorant. Wearing a
    helmet very slightly raises (not lowers) your risk of serious head
    injury or death, but not sufficiently to make them actively dangerous
    to wear if you prefer them. It's not as if this was a serious risk
    anyway - cycling is a very safe activity.

    Has the slight increase in risk ever been properly quantified?

    --

    Nigel

  3. In article <[email hidden]>,
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:


    Has the slight increase in risk ever been properly quantified?

    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the
    impacts of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    --
    Tony

    " I would never die for my beliefs because I might be wrong."
    Bertrand Russell

  4. In article <[email hidden]>,
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    Cycling wearing a helmet is
    slightly more dangerous than cycling not wearing a helmet, but cycling to
    work with or without a helmet is still an awful lot safer - not more
    dangerous - than walking.

    You forgot to add "and the health benefits of cycling extend your life
    expectancy substantially more than the risks decrease it"

    --
    Tony

    " I would never die for my beliefs because I might be wrong."
    Bertrand Russell

  5. Tony Raven said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    Has the slight increase in risk ever been properly quantified?

    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the
    impacts of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    Could it have meant that wearers are more likely to be high-mileage
    cyclists and thereby more exposed to risk?

    The concept seems sound - professional drivers (particularly those
    whose hours are not limited) seem also to be more exposed to risk.

  6. "JNugent" <[email hidden]> wrote

    Quoted message said:
    Tony Raven said:


    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the impacts
    of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    Could it have meant that wearers are more likely to be high-mileage
    cyclists and thereby more exposed to risk?

    I don't have a reference but I think I have read that CTC members have about
    a double casualty rate compared to car users by mileage. This compares with
    a 14 times average for all cyclists.

  7. Simon Brooke said:

    in message <[email hidden]>, Brian Robertson

    ('[email protected]') said:

    I don't know if anyone else has said this on the thread, but you really
    should wear a helmet. I mean that not as a patronising git, but as
    someone with the near death experiences to prove it.

    You're not a patronising git, just misinformed and ignorant. Wearing a
    helmet very slightly raises (not lowers) your risk of serious head injury
    or death, but not sufficiently to make them actively dangerous to wear if
    you prefer them. It's not as if this was a serious risk anyway - cycling
    is a very safe activity.

    And you are a nasty bit of work, so that makes us even. ;-)

    Brian.

  8. Tony Raven said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    Has the slight increase in risk ever been properly quantified?

    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the
    impacts of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    It is hard for the man in the street to evaluate such studies. At the
    moment I am reading two books, one by Richard Dawkins called "The God
    Delusion" and one by a top scientist offering the opposite opinion.
    These books have obviously been written and published at almost the same
    time. It is scary how you can read a quoted 'fact' from a study in one
    book, only to pick up the other and find that same study debunked with
    equally convincing evidence.

    We know very little about everything and, in all probability, will die
    largely in ignorance about anything. Facts are subjective.

    Brian.

  9. DavidR said:

    "JNugent" <[email hidden]> wrote

    Quoted message said:
    Tony Raven said:

    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the impacts
    of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    Could it have meant that wearers are more likely to be high-mileage
    cyclists and thereby more exposed to risk?

    I don't have a reference but I think I have read that CTC members have about
    a double casualty rate compared to car users by mileage. This compares with
    a 14 times average for all cyclists.

    Are CTC members "high mileage" cyclists?

  10. In article <[email hidden]>, brian@
    [nospam].com says...

    Quoted message said:
    Quoted message said:


    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the
    impacts of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    It is hard for the man in the street to evaluate such studies. At the
    moment I am reading two books, one by Richard Dawkins called "The God
    Delusion" and one by a top scientist offering the opposite opinion.
    These books have obviously been written and published at almost the same
    time. It is scary how you can read a quoted 'fact' from a study in one
    book, only to pick up the other and find that same study debunked with
    equally convincing evidence.

    That is where a scientific training comes in and you need that and to
    read the papers in the field to build up a picture of what you can trust
    and what you can't. That's the way it works I'm afraid.

    A number of those here have that background and have done the work and
    can point you to relevant papers. More detailed work has been done by
    http://www.cyclehelmets.org and presented in an accessible way if you
    are interested to learn more.

    --
    Tony

    " I would never die for my beliefs because I might be wrong."
    Bertrand Russell

  11. In article <[email hidden]>, [email hidden]
    says...

    Quoted message said:

    "JNugent" <[email hidden]> wrote

    Quoted message said:
    Tony Raven said:


    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the impacts
    of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    Could it have meant that wearers are more likely to be high-mileage
    cyclists and thereby more exposed to risk?

    I don't have a reference but I think I have read that CTC members have about
    a double casualty rate compared to car users by mileage. This compares with
    a 14 times average for all cyclists.

    Kaplan, Jerrold A.; Characteristics of the Regular Adult Bicycle User;
    MS thesis U of Maryland, 1975.

    Accidents per million miles

    Children 720
    College Associated Adults 500
    League of American Bicyclists 113
    CTC members 66

    The injury rate per km for cyclists is 13 times that for car occupants
    [Road Casualties in Great Britain 2006 Table 52]

    --
    Tony

    " I would never die for my beliefs because I might be wrong."
    Bertrand Russell

  12. Brian Robertson [email protected] said:
    Tony Raven said:

    In article <[email hidden]>,
    [email hidden] says...

    Quoted message said:

    Has the slight increase in risk ever been properly quantified?

    The best study for that is the Rodgers one of 8 million US cyclists over
    15 years which found "The most surprising finding is that the bicycle-
    related fatality rate is positively and significantly correlated with
    increased helmet use."

    [Rodgers, G.B., Reducing bicycle accidents: a reevaluation of the
    impacts of the CPSC bicycle standard and helmet use, Journal of Products
    Liability, 11, pp. 307-317, 1988]

    It is hard for the man in the street to evaluate such studies. At the
    moment I am reading two books, one by Richard Dawkins called "The God
    Delusion" and one by a top scientist offering the opposite opinion.
    These books have obviously been written and published at almost the same
    time. It is scary how you can read a quoted 'fact' from a study in one
    book, only to pick up the other and find that same study debunked with
    equally convincing evidence.

    We know very little about everything and, in all probability, will die
    largely in ignorance about anything. Facts are subjective.

    Brian.

    no a fact is a fact, rember the fact doesn't have to be 50% of one and
    50% of the other it can quite easly be 100% once side.

    roger
    --
    www.rogermerriman.com

  13. in message <[email hidden]>, Tony Raven

    (') said:

    In article <[email hidden]>, [email hidden]
    says...

    Quoted message said:


    I don't have a reference but I think I have read that CTC members have
    about a double casualty rate compared to car users by mileage. This
    compares with a 14 times average for all cyclists.

    Kaplan, Jerrold A.; Characteristics of the Regular Adult Bicycle User;
    MS thesis U of Maryland, 1975.

    Accidents per million miles

    Children 720
    College Associated Adults 500
    League of American Bicyclists 113
    CTC members 66

    The injury rate per km for cyclists is 13 times that for car occupants
    [Road Casualties in Great Britain 2006 Table 52]

    This is more or less what you'd expect - more experienced cyclists are
    markedly safer than less experienced cyclists

    --
    [email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
    ;; Sending your money to someone just because they've erected
    ;; a barrier of obscurity and secrets around the tools you
    ;; need to use your data does not help the economy or spur
    ;; innovation. - Waffle Iron Slashdot, June 16th, 2002

  14. Brian Robertson brian@nospam said:
    Simon Brooke said:

    in message <[email hidden]>, Brian Robertson

    ('[email protected]') said:

    I don't know if anyone else has said this on the thread, but you really
    should wear a helmet. I mean that not as a patronising git, but as
    someone with the near death experiences to prove it.

    You're not a patronising git, just misinformed and ignorant. Wearing a
    helmet very slightly raises (not lowers) your risk of serious head injury
    or death, but not sufficiently to make them actively dangerous to wear if
    you prefer them. It's not as if this was a serious risk anyway - cycling
    is a very safe activity.

    And you are a nasty bit of work, so that makes us even. ;-)

    I'm sorry the winkey doesn't excuse that comment.

    If you think helmets significantly reduce your risk you are misinformed.
    If you haven't read the research you are ignorant about the subject.
    Simon wasn't making value judgements about you just describing the
    situation.

    --
    Andy Leighton => [email hidden]
    "The Lord is my shepherd, but we still lost the sheep dog trials"
    - Robert Rankin, _They Came And Ate Us_

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