Can Contador win?

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Contador was about 30 seconds faster than the Dane in the first TT, and he
certainly looked to put Rasmussen in some difficulty late in today's
stage.
Phil has said repeatedly that "AC will not win this years TdF", but if he
takes some time on Rasmussen Wednesday he very well could give Disco the
GC
win. MR's team has been tested and they seem up to the task, but Disco
could use a well placed Levi to put early pressure on Rabo and possibly
isolate MR by the final climb. And if Evans doesnt lose more time, we
could
have three credible GC contenders going into the last TT. When was the
last
time that happened?

In 1968 there were even nine contenders going into the last stage, a 55 km
TT (1. Van Springel 2. San Miguel 0'12" 3. Janssen 0'16" 4.Bitossi 0'58" 5.
Gandarias 1'15" 6. Aimar 1'38" 7. Bracke 1'56" 8. Wolfshohl 2'12" 9.
Pingeon 2'38"😉

Benjo

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Contador was about 30 seconds faster than the Dane in the first TT, and he
certainly looked to put Rasmussen in some difficulty late in today's
stage.
Phil has said repeatedly that "AC will not win this years TdF", but if he
takes some time on Rasmussen Wednesday he very well could give Disco the
GC
win. MR's team has been tested and they seem up to the task, but Disco
could use a well placed Levi to put early pressure on Rabo and possibly
isolate MR by the final climb. And if Evans doesnt lose more time, we
could
have three credible GC contenders going into the last TT. When was the
last
time that happened?

I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that the
pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that
the
pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC position
for ACs chance.

Than again, AC could just go when he feels it without relying on his team to
soften Rabo. But Wed will be his last chance to set himself up to win.
Disco should pull out the stops. Id like to be in on thier next couple team
meetings. They have to be thinking of AC for the GC win.
--
"The accused will now make a bogus statement."
James Joyce

"Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Contador was about 30 seconds faster than the Dane in the first TT, and
he
certainly looked to put Rasmussen in some difficulty late in today's
stage.
Phil has said repeatedly that "AC will not win this years TdF", but if he
takes some time on Rasmussen Wednesday he very well could give Disco the
GC
win. MR's team has been tested and they seem up to the task, but Disco
could use a well placed Levi to put early pressure on Rabo and possibly
isolate MR by the final climb. And if Evans doesnt lose more time, we
could
have three credible GC contenders going into the last TT. When was the
last
time that happened?

I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that
the pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable
either. Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run
alongside...

Levi is a GC plodder - he can ride fast but he can't match the accelerations
of a true climber. While he has a definite advantage in a long hard stage
with a lot of fast flats between hard climbs, he isn't the sort of guy who
can make a fast final climb with the real climbers.

and I don't think that the

Quoted message said:

pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

--------
Bravo, the truth.

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that
the
pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC position
for ACs chance.

You're assuming Menchov and BoogerD, et. al. won't be there for support at
that point.

On Mon, 23 Jul 2007 23:41:44 GMT, "Tom Kunich" <cyclintom@yahoo. com>

Quoted message said:

Levi is a GC plodder - he can ride fast but he can't match the accelerations
of a true climber. While he has a definite advantage in a long hard stage
with a lot of fast flats between hard climbs, he isn't the sort of guy who
can make a fast final climb with the real climbers.

This also describes Kloden and Evans.

Evans, Kloden, Leipheimer and Contador can all out TT Skeletor. It's
simply a matter of can they stay close enough Wednesday to make it up
on a flat 55k TT Saturday?

Contador has the best shot time-wise to take yellow in Paris with
Skeletor on the second step.

Evans, Kloden and Levi are all shooting for third unless something
dramatic happens Wednesday.

Astana and Vino will support Kloden and who knows what those crazy
mofos can do to bust things up? Can they - and Disco - isolate
Skeletor and get sufficient time back for Klodi, Contador, and Levi?
Can Evans and his one mountain support, Horner, stay with them?

If they don't, then Skeletor will have enough to keep yellow all the
way to Paris by around 2 minutes.

Carl Sundquist said:

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that
the
pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

Quoted message said:

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC position
for ACs chance.

You're assuming Menchov and BoogerD, et. al. won't be there for support at
that point.

Dumbass -

I speculate that the Chicken can be isolated, but it will take a
combine of a few teams to make it happen.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Carl Sundquist said:

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

Quoted message said:

news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

> I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
> explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that
> the
> pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
> Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC position
for ACs chance.

Quoted message said:

You're assuming Menchov and BoogerD, et. al. won't be there for support at
that point.

Dumbass -

I speculate that the Chicken can be isolated, but it will take a
combine of a few teams to make it happen.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

yeah. i went looking for the TT times again: 37 seconds. But the
expert flack wrote Contador rode a brilliant TT for Contador.
so of the assassins don't strike and its C vs R the last flat stages
give it dead even, even enough for a 3rd or 4th party.

Kurgan Gringioni said:

Carl Sundquist said:

You're assuming Menchov and BoogerD, et. al. won't be there for support at
that point.

Dumbass -

I speculate that the Chicken can be isolated, but it will take a
combine of a few teams to make it happen.

Dumbass,

There are also two stages after the last mountain day and
before the TT. Rabobank has a lot of strong riders, so nobody
is likely to actually get away from them, but some of the
teams could try to make the racing really hard, following your
theory about putting the burn on a climber's legs, with
the goal of weakening him for the TT day. Discovery or
Astana have the manpower to do this. Of course, it seems
that Rasmussen is not Mayo (or other fried climber), so this
might not work. But it would be more interesting than
having the pack roll along watching some escape on TV,
as often happens in these flat final-week stages.

Ben
RBR Long-Term Planning Office

"Kurgan Gringioni" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Carl Sundquist said:

"steve" <[email hidden]> wrote in message

news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist"
<[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

> I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has
> the
> explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think
> that
> the
> pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable
> either.
> Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run
> alongside...

Quoted message said:

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen
to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC
position
for ACs chance.

You're assuming Menchov and BoogerD, et. al. won't be there for support
at
that point.

Dumbass -

I speculate that the Chicken can be isolated, but it will take a
combine of a few teams to make it happen.

They would have to break him before the last climb, as any alliances will
likely dissolve by then. If they can work together to isolate him during the
middle section of stage 16, he could have problems.

P.S. I'm amused by your recent tendency to preface/qualify your posts with
"I speculate..."

Carl Sundquist said:

P.S. I'm amused by your recent tendency to preface/qualify your posts with
"I speculate..."

Dumbass -

Considering the large percentage of the time that I am wrong, it is a
good fallback if some jackass wants to gloat over my wrongness.

thanks,

K. Gringioni.

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen
to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC
position
for ACs chance.

You're assuming Menchov and BoogerD, et. al. won't be there for support at

that point.

Im not assuming that. Im suggesting that Popo or LL could attempt to go on
one of the two big early climbs (or follow an early break before the climbs
start), forcing Rabos support men to ride hard to limit the break. Better
yet if one Disco goes on/before the first climb, then the other goes on the
next one. Rabo cant/wont cover every attack that early, but will instead
ride a tempo marginally sustainable by thier support men. Discos reasonably
strong climbers would have a good chance of getting off the front and making
Rabo chase hard all day. If Rabo burns up early on or before the final
climb, MR will be vulnerable for more than a few second gain.

There are unknowns and difficulties (like Evans might have his team assist a
chase if LL is away), but if Disco wants to win they have to put Rabo under
early pressure. AC probably needs to [censored] 1:30-2:00 to be close enough to
worry MR. And AC doesnt have second place in the bag, either. Making the
Lottos work wouldnt hurt.
--
"The accused will now make a bogus statement."
James Joyce

benjo maso said:

In 1968 there were even nine contenders going into the last stage, a 55 km
TT (1. Van Springel 2. San Miguel 0'12" 3. Janssen 0'16" 4.Bitossi 0'58" 5.
Gandarias 1'15" 6. Aimar 1'38" 7. Bracke 1'56" 8. Wolfshohl 2'12" 9.
Pingeon 2'38"😉

1 Janssen, Jan NL 133 49'42"
2 Vanspringel, Herman B 38"
3 Bracke, Ferdinand B 3'03"
4 San Miguel, Gregorio E 3'17"
5 Pingeon, Roger F 3'29"
6 Wolfshohl, Rolf D 3'46"
7 Aimar, Lucien F 4'44"
8 Bitossi, Franco I 4'59"
9 Gandarias, Andres E 5'05"

In article <[email hidden]>,

steve said:

On 23-Jul-2007, smacked up and reeling, "Carl Sundquist" <[email hidden]>
blindly formulated
the following incoherence:

Quoted message said:

I can't see Levi extending Rasmussen. Levi hasn't shown that he has the
explosiveness to take it out of Rasmussen's legs and I don't think that
the
pace Levi would set would leave Rasmussen particularly vulnerable either.
Maybe if you gave Odessa a thong and an antler helmet to run alongside...

The idea would be to get him in an early break, too early for Rasmussen to
sensibly go. But LL would have to be willing to sacrifice his GC position
for ACs chance.

Than again, AC could just go when he feels it without relying on his team to
soften Rabo. But Wed will be his last chance to set himself up to win.
Disco should pull out the stops. Id like to be in on thier next couple team
meetings. They have to be thinking of AC for the GC win.

They were trying out Rasmussen today. Contador had
Rasmussen on a leash, and as they got to the top, there
was Hincapie. I think they were trying to get into
Rasmussen's head for Wednesday.

Somebody in the announcing team thought Contador should
have gone earlier, even the penultimate climb. I assume
the team knows what they are doing.

--
Michael Press

Dans le message de news:[email hidden],
steve <[email hidden]> a réfléchi, et puis a déclaré :

Quoted message said:

Contador was about 30 seconds faster than the Dane in the first TT,
and he certainly looked to put Rasmussen in some difficulty late in
today's stage. Phil has said repeatedly that "AC will not win this
years TdF", but if he takes some time on Rasmussen Wednesday he very
well could give Disco the GC win. MR's team has been tested and they
seem up to the task, but Disco could use a well placed Levi to put
early pressure on Rabo and possibly isolate MR by the final climb.
And if Evans doesnt lose more time, we could have three credible GC
contenders going into the last TT. When was the last time that
happened?

This could be dramatic. It may surpass the Fignon/Lemond battle.

And just to make it more fun, Contador's not an american but he's on
an american team. How would the French feel about that if he wins?

If you keep spending your money to keep our foetid economy afloat, we love
it!
--
Sandy
-
Darwinism, born in ideological struggle, has never escaped from an intimate
reciprocal relationship with worldviews exported from and imported into the
science. No one challenges the claim that evolutionary theory has had a wide
effect on social theory. It is a cliché of cultural history that the
explanation of evolution by natural selection served as an ideological
justification for laissez-faire capitalism and the colonial domination of
the lesser breeds without the law

- Richard Lewontin

in message <[email hidden]>,

Michael Press (') said:

They were trying out Rasmussen today. Contador had
Rasmussen on a leash, and as they got to the top, there
was Hincapie. I think they were trying to get into
Rasmussen's head for Wednesday.

Somebody in the announcing team thought Contador should
have gone earlier, even the penultimate climb. I assume
the team knows what they are doing.

My guess is that they don't think Contador could sustain a long break. He's
got lots of acceleration, but how much endurance has he? Rasmussen doesn't
have Contador's acceleration, but he does have sustained climbing speed.

--
[email hidden] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; when in the [censored], the wise man plants courgettes

Michael Press said:

They were trying out Rasmussen today. Contador had
Rasmussen on a leash, and as they got to the top, there
was Hincapie. I think they were trying to get into
Rasmussen's head for Wednesday.

Somebody in the announcing team thought Contador should
have gone earlier, even the penultimate climb. I assume
the team knows what they are doing.

The obvious tactic was that Contador would take a small lead over
Rasmussen and isolate him, meet Hincapie at the top and work together
in the descent to widen the gap. It worked perfectly, really amazing
how Hincapie was *right* there, except for the gap.

--
E. Dronkert

Simon Brooke said:

My guess is that they don't think Contador could sustain a long break. He's
got lots of acceleration, but how much endurance has he? Rasmussen doesn't
have Contador's acceleration, but he does have sustained climbing speed.

He wasn't that far off Contador's acceleration. He closed the initial gap
the first time Contador went pretty quickly and the only other time that
Contador got a small gap near the top he couldn't sustain the pace and
Rasmussen closed it down again.