Tom Henderson said:
So the first of about 10,000 questions I'll probably post here in the coming year is: As my rides,
runs, and swims get longer, I'll be able to roughly estimate my finishing time on a good day,
barring any race-day complications.
I find that this is a very precarious way to estimate finishing time. Just because I can
swim 2.4 miles in X time, Bike 112 mi in "Y" time and run 26.2 miles in "Z" time does not
mean I can do
2.4,112,26.2 in "X","Y","Z" time or any real factor thereof. Instead of doing doing one of the
century rides or marathons why not do a 1/2 IM earlier or mid season. IMHO this will give you a
much more accurate representation of finishing time than a compilation of the three seperate
sports. Even doing the 1/2 you still have, heat, course, bad day etc that will affect your time.
Quoted message said:Obviously I need to be 17 hours or faster. Also obviously, I should plan for a "no complications"
race day. I might feel bad that day, weather can always be a big factor, equipment issues can
cause delays on the course, etc. So, the question is, when should I start feeling like a finish is
pretty likely? When my estimated time is down to 16 hours? 15?
Not trying to be flip here but why worry about it. Are you training to "just make it under
the finish line" or are you training to do the best you can? Are you going to train
differently as soon as you're "pretty confident" you're going to make it? I suggest laying
out a workout plan you think is feasible according to were you're at right now and will be
something that you think will accomplish your goals of finishing. Do the best training you
can. Come race day you do the best you can. Either you make it or you don't, either way you
end up knowing you gave it your best effort.
Quoted message said:
Don't get me wrong, if I find on race day that I can finish in 9 hours, I'll do it! What I'm
worried about is the more realistic possibility that my pace over that distance appears to be close
to the edge. When can I feel more comfortable about being able to make it?
I'll probably get in trouble for this but, what is your reasoning for being so close to the edge?
I obviously know nothing about you or your training and it may very well be that a 17 hour IM is
the true edge of your abilities. In that case I'd say go for it do the best you can and don't
worry about it. OTOH what if you put an IM off for this year and spent two years training maybe
doing a couple of 1/2's this year, do you think your concern would still be as great? Most
everyone that starts an IM has a little bit of that fear of not making the cut off for some
reason. But why make it worse if an additional year of experiance and training could very well
quell a majority of those fears?
~Matt
Quoted message said:
Tom