The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.
Woke this morning to glorious sun.
Went out and did 35 miles round the lanes.
GLORIOUS GLORIOUS GLORIOUS
Sunny - windy - but not a cold wind - it was invigorating
I just love it when the Met Office get it wrong :-)
Cheers, helen s
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In article <[email hidden]>, Zog The Undeniable <[email hidden]> writes
Quoted message said:
wafflyDIRTYcatLITTERhcsBOX said:
and I love it. The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts. Woke this morning to glorious sun.
Went to work by car [1]and didn't need to :-(
It was lovely here this morning and this afternoon. I even went out in shirtsleeves to interview a client. But I got very wet on the way home early this evening.
The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.
Woke this morning to glorious sun.
Went out and did 35 miles round the lanes.
GLORIOUS GLORIOUS GLORIOUS
Sunny - windy - but not a cold wind - it was invigorating
I just love it when the Met Office get it wrong :-)
Cheers, helen s
Yup Forecast for here was rain in morning clearing in the afternoon. Sunny in morning but I decided to ride the winter bike to work anyway...Good Decision. I rode home in torrential rain. Well my new mudguards work anyway 🙂
"Stan Cox" <[email hidden]> wrote in message "]news:[email hidden]...
Quoted message said:
Yup Forecast for here was rain in morning clearing in the afternoon. Sunny in morning but I decided to ride the winter bike to work anyway...Good Decision. I rode home in torrential rain. Well my new mudguards work anyway 🙂
There has been a nasty band of rain brewing along the uk south coast all day as seen on
but luckily I must have been just above it as it was just lightly spitting here in somerset.
Those dolts from the Met Office assured us natives of London Town Devine that we would be rained on yesterday arvo. We were not. The same dolts neglected to mention that we /would/ get rained on this morning. Gun, petrol, matches...
There has been a nasty band of rain brewing along the uk south coast all day as seen on
Good enuff for the English - it was a purrfect day on the Bicycle Island:-)
Absolutely gorgeous evening here. Like a fool I went round the Dalbeattie 'red' route with a fourteen-year-old who was embarrassingly better than me on all sections (and rode some sections that I walked). But hey, they're indestructable at that age and I'm not. But it's a wonderful route and it was a very pleasant ride - just a little faster than I'm used to on the climbs!
The forecast for today - even up to yesterday, was for torrential rain in these here parts.
Woke this morning to glorious sun.
Went out and did 35 miles round the lanes.
Me too... A few fun passes in the Peak, with a triple of course.. BTW if you want a really [censored] Sustrans surface.. try the 68 between Buxton and Whaley Bridge. This incorperates the worst yellow road surface I have ever found..
You can always check the free latest radar information and judge for yourself.
I use two simple methods that are arguably far more accurate than the Met Office. First assume today will be the same as yesterday (Persistence Forecasting) and second, look out the window.
Comparison with Persistence Forecasts is one way the Met Office assess their forecasting performance and they are only slightly better. Where they win is those days where there is a clear shift from yesterday's weather so if you catch those days by a look out the window I would argue you do better than the Met Office.
Tony
-- "If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain
Comparison with Persistence Forecasts is one way the Met Office assess their forecasting performance and they are only slightly better.
I'm not sure they would like your assessment of 'slightly'. But it depends how exactly you define it. After all, a persistence forecast for an unbiased coin toss is right 50% of the time (as is 'climatology'😉, and since weather is much more persistent than that, there is not really a lot of room for improvement. They have certainly been ahead of persistence for many years, and continue to improve consistently - at least according to their own analysis:-)
One way in which I could certainly envisage them falling down a bit is with local effects eg due to topography, and looking out of the window should definitely help with that problem. But the most important bit must surely be that you get up-to-date observations rather than the 6-12h old ones that they used for the last forecast.
I'm not sure they would like your assessment of 'slightly'. But it depends how exactly you define it. After all, a persistence forecast for an unbiased coin toss is right 50% of the time (as is 'climatology'😉, and since weather is much more persistent than that, there is not really a lot of room for improvement. They have certainly been ahead of persistence for many years, and continue to improve consistently - at least according to their own analysis:-)
Their own analysis has been challenged as misleading and representing best case. Their claim of 84% accuracy was challenged by a study John Thornes at Birmingham University which showed that assuming tomorrow will be the same as today beats Met Office forecasts in the summer. I gave the Met Office the benefit of the doubt and the season in using the word "slightly"
Tony
-- "If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain
The Met Office are never wrong. They FORECAST the weather, they don't promise it. A forecast is just what it says!! You do need to switch to "logic" mode to understand !!!!! :-)
The Met Office are never wrong. They FORECAST the weather, they don't promise it. A forecast is just what it says!! You do need to switch to "logic" mode to understand !!!!! :-)
Yep, the forecast is right, its the weather that got it wrong.
Tony ;-)
-- "If you tell the truth you don't have to remember anything." Mark Twain
