Marathon estimation again

Robert Grumbine said:

Had to put 'again' in the subject as I'm sure that the
thread has appeared before ...

Still looking for raw data to work with and test
marathon time prediction estimators.

One source that I found quite fruitful was the NYC marathon results (filter
to exclude out of state runners), coupled with the Grete's and Staten Island
half marathons, which most of the local runners (that's why you exclude out of
staters in marathon results) use as tune-up races.

Quoted message said:

Failing that, perhaps time for another round of
collecting online estimators.

Oh dear, oh dear. Not that again (-;

[snip]

Quoted message said:

From her 5k and 10 mile (the latter a distance she had
recently trained for and PR'd at), she should be able
to get about 3:45 --

What's her 10 mile time ?

Is she willing to risk having to walk some of the distance for a sub 4 ? Is she
averaging a 4 hour pace or close to it on her long runs ?

Maybe it's worth it for her to go out on pace for a 4:00, even if she's risking
a fairly painful 4:30 by doing that. Part of it depends on what she wants out
of it and what risks she's willing to take.

Cheers,
--
Donovan Rebbechi
http://pegasus.rutgers.edu/~elflord/

Robert Grumbine said:

Had to put 'again' in the subject as I'm sure that the
thread has appeared before ...

Still looking for raw data to work with and test
marathon time prediction estimators.

Quoted message said:

do the last 5 miles at faster than marathon pace. Her
recovery from these runs, no surprise (I pointed out)
is not great, however, and the additional 10k can
really be a whole 'nother experience.

Ohhh you betcha.

Quoted message said:

From her 5k and 10 mile (the latter a distance she had
recently trained for and PR'd at), she should be able
to get about 3:45 -- if she were properly trained for the

Is she prepared to run the marathon at the same effort (not the same
pace or strength subtle difference) as the 5 and 10 k? I can race a 5
or 10k no problem. Race a marathon with the same intention, not me. I
can't focus my effort that long. But that is me, marathons just aren't
my thing.

Quoted message said:

marathon. I've suggested starting on 4:15 pace and
accelerating if she still feels that strong after 15.

I'm with you here.

Quoted message said:

But she really dislikes backing off that minute per
mile, and especially to be on that side of 4:00.

Tell her to train better. How many 15 milers did she do? The more she
has done the more likely she'll get closer to 4:00. When is the race?

Quoted message said:

She's not entirely new to the marathon, but her last two
efforts were before she started training either consistently
or for some speed, and were about 5:20. So I figure it's back
to novice marathoner, except that she certainly knows what
it's like to be out for a very long time.

Going 5:20 to under 4:00 should require at least a few tries. Being out
a long time will help. But she is going to have to totally discard the
"I can walk now" attitude of a 5:20 marathoner. She is going to have to
push when in the past she stopped for a breather.

Or she could run 3:45 and shut my ignorant mouth up.

In article <[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

Robert Grumbine said:

Had to put 'again' in the subject as I'm sure that the
thread has appeared before ...

Still looking for raw data to work with and test
marathon time prediction estimators.

Quoted message said:

do the last 5 miles at faster than marathon pace. Her
recovery from these runs, no surprise (I pointed out)
is not great, however, and the additional 10k can
really be a whole 'nother experience.

Ohhh you betcha.

Quoted message said:

From her 5k and 10 mile (the latter a distance she had
recently trained for and PR'd at), she should be able
to get about 3:45 -- if she were properly trained for the

Is she prepared to run the marathon at the same effort (not the same
pace or strength subtle difference) as the 5 and 10 k? I can race a 5
or 10k no problem. Race a marathon with the same intention, not me. I
can't focus my effort that long. But that is me, marathons just aren't
my thing.

She's fine on the mental side. If (when) she falls off pace (whatever
constitutes 'pace'😉 it will be because of the lack of miles, not
lack of focus or guts.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

marathon. I've suggested starting on 4:15 pace and
accelerating if she still feels that strong after 15.

I'm with you here.

Quoted message said:

But she really dislikes backing off that minute per
mile, and especially to be on that side of 4:00.

Tell her to train better. How many 15 milers did she do? The more she
has done the more likely she'll get closer to 4:00. When is the race?

That's one of my reasons for advising conservation -- 2x20 miles are
all her long runs, with a third coming up before the race, which is
Philadelpha, on the 20th.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

She's not entirely new to the marathon, but her last two
efforts were before she started training either consistently
or for some speed, and were about 5:20. So I figure it's back
to novice marathoner, except that she certainly knows what
it's like to be out for a very long time.

Going 5:20 to under 4:00 should require at least a few tries. Being out
a long time will help. But she is going to have to totally discard the
"I can walk now" attitude of a 5:20 marathoner. She is going to have to
push when in the past she stopped for a breather.

She's taken fantastic amounts of time off everything from 5k to
half marathon, including that the half marathon was a difficult
trail half. No, she doesn't have an 'I can walk now' mentality.

Quoted message said:

Or she could run 3:45 and shut my ignorant mouth up.

I'd bet more this way than another 5:20. Her training entered
entire new universes after that previous marathon (namely, she
quit thinking about running long and slow, and started working
towards _racing_ short and fast).

--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences

"Robert Grumbine" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

In article <[email hidden]>,

Quoted message said:

Robert Grumbine said:

Had to put 'again' in the subject as I'm sure that the
thread has appeared before ...

Still looking for raw data to work with and test
marathon time prediction estimators.

Quoted message said:

do the last 5 miles at faster than marathon pace. Her
recovery from these runs, no surprise (I pointed out)
is not great, however, and the additional 10k can
really be a whole 'nother experience.

Ohhh you betcha.

Quoted message said:

From her 5k and 10 mile (the latter a distance she had
recently trained for and PR'd at), she should be able
to get about 3:45 -- if she were properly trained for the

Is she prepared to run the marathon at the same effort (not the same
pace or strength subtle difference) as the 5 and 10 k? I can race a 5
or 10k no problem. Race a marathon with the same intention, not me. I
can't focus my effort that long. But that is me, marathons just aren't
my thing.

She's fine on the mental side. If (when) she falls off pace (whatever
constitutes 'pace'😉 it will be because of the lack of miles, not
lack of focus or guts.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

marathon. I've suggested starting on 4:15 pace and
accelerating if she still feels that strong after 15.

I'm with you here.

Quoted message said:

But she really dislikes backing off that minute per
mile, and especially to be on that side of 4:00.

Tell her to train better. How many 15 milers did she do? The more she
has done the more likely she'll get closer to 4:00. When is the race?

That's one of my reasons for advising conservation -- 2x20 miles are
all her long runs, with a third coming up before the race, which is
Philadelpha, on the 20th.

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

She's not entirely new to the marathon, but her last two
efforts were before she started training either consistently
or for some speed, and were about 5:20. So I figure it's back
to novice marathoner, except that she certainly knows what
it's like to be out for a very long time.

Going 5:20 to under 4:00 should require at least a few tries. Being out
a long time will help. But she is going to have to totally discard the
"I can walk now" attitude of a 5:20 marathoner. She is going to have to
push when in the past she stopped for a breather.

She's taken fantastic amounts of time off everything from 5k to
half marathon, including that the half marathon was a difficult
trail half. No, she doesn't have an 'I can walk now' mentality.

Quoted message said:

Or she could run 3:45 and shut my ignorant mouth up.

I'd bet more this way than another 5:20. Her training entered
entire new universes after that previous marathon (namely, she
quit thinking about running long and slow, and started working
towards _racing_ short and fast).

Which may be exactly why she might have trouble past 20 miles in a marathon.
The Hadd articles pointed out very well the very specific slow training
needed to maximize the training of the slow twitch muscles needed for
marathons and beyond. Maybe her training is good, maybe it's all been *too*
fast.

You didn't tell us her times from 5k to 10 miles, but if the predictor says
3:45 she would be crazy to shoot for that on light training. If her long run
pace is appropriately slow, you could tell her to try racing at that pace
minus 1 minute. A 4 hour marathon is 9:09 pace, so if her long run pace is
about 10 mpm, she has a shot at that.

If her long run pace is much faster than 10 mpm, on light training, it may
be she's doing her long runs too fast and will have trouble breaking 4
hours.

-Tony

Quoted message said:

Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur

activities notes and links.

Quoted message said:

Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too

much

Quoted message said:

evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than

they

Quoted message said:

would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New

Sciences

Something 5x your 10K time. Its 4.2x that distance.

Robert Grumbine said:

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

From her 5k and 10 mile (the latter a distance she had
recently trained for and PR'd at), she should be able
to get about 3:45 -- if she were properly trained for the

I understand from the above that her 10M time is in line with her 5K
time. This wouldn't mean much in itself, but at least it wouldn't be a
bad sign.

Quoted message said:

That's one of my reasons for advising conservation -- 2x20 miles are
all her long runs, with a third coming up before the race, which is
Philadelpha, on the 20th.

Then what on earth is that 20-miler (or any other long run) doing in
her plan at this point?

(I seriously question the wisdom of 20-milers with a fast finish for
runners with a low mileage and or little training background and I'd
limit the long runs to 2.5hrs, but these are arguable points in
comparison.)

Quoted message said:

She's taken fantastic amounts of time off everything from 5k to
half marathon, including that the half marathon was a difficult
trail half. No, she doesn't have an 'I can walk now' mentality.

Maybe you could convince her that it doesn't matter one bit in the
2xHM+20 formula what kind of HM it was?:-)

Quoted message said:

I'd bet more this way than another 5:20. Her training entered
entire new universes after that previous marathon (namely, she
quit thinking about running long and slow, and started working
towards _racing_ short and fast).

Above 4:00 the introduction of short races and fast running can work
miracles in someone who's yet to discover what the difference between
jogging and running can do for her, that much is certain. But if
there's a huge empty space between her long runs and her normal runs,
it could well be she cannot bridge it in the marathon.

The problem with low mileage is that the long run can make up a chunk
that's too big to digest; the rule of thumb that says it shouldn't make
more than 30% of your weekly mileage can be broken, but in that case
I'd like to see it supported by midweek and weekly alternating semilong
runs.

Anders (who leaves you alone with the big question)

"anders" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

Quoted message said:

That's one of my reasons for advising conservation -- 2x20 miles are
all her long runs, with a third coming up before the race, which is
Philadelpha, on the 20th.

Then what on earth is that 20-miler (or any other long run) doing in
her plan at this point?

After reading Robert's original post, I convinced myself that he couldn't
mean that the marathon was on the 20th, and still have another 20 miler
*before* the race. He must have meant that the 3rd long run was on the
20th, and the marathon 3 weeks later.

But after reading Anders's reply I see that indeed the Philly marathon is
on the 20th....

So , more importantly than working out the pace - first things first.

Don't let her run another 20 miler 1 week before the race.
Much more harm than good.

Work out her MP - 4:00-4:15 and run 9 miles with the 3 middle miles at MP.

Anthony.

"Robert Grumbine" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
news:[email hidden]...

Quoted message said:

From her 5k and 10 mile (the latter a distance she had
recently trained for and PR'd at), she should be able
to get about 3:45 -- if she were properly trained for the
marathon. I've suggested starting on 4:15 pace and
accelerating if she still feels that strong after 15.
But she really dislikes backing off that minute per
mile, and especially to be on that side of 4:00.

Very reasonable pace . You will need to work on her head to understand
the value of conservation on the front side. I know, not an easy task
when she has guts and some Type A. 😉

Quoted message said:

She's not entirely new to the marathon, but her last two
efforts were before she started training either consistently
or for some speed, and were about 5:20. So I figure it's back
to novice marathoner, except that she certainly knows what
it's like to be out for a very long time.

Convince her that going from a 5:20 to 4 hours is a significant chunk of
improvement. Go for 4 hours this trip and then toy with sub 4. Stepwise
refinement. We seem to be having a recent plethora of Balls to Wall
strategy not passing muster. 🙂

-DougF

In article <[email hidden]>,

rick++ said:

Something 5x your 10K time. Its 4.2x that distance.

5x for a first marathon, 4.7 if you're well prepared (which includes
having prior experience at the distance). Rule of thumb stuff.

10x 5k time for well prepared (roundly, obviously more in keeping
with that 4.7x 10k) marathon.
--
Robert Grumbine http://www.radix.net/~bobg/ Science faqs and amateur activities notes and links.
Sagredo (Galileo Galilei) "You present these recondite matters with too much
evidence and ease; this great facility makes them less appreciated than they
would be had they been presented in a more abstruse manner." Two New Sciences