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Quoted message said:I have a target time for my second marathon at NYC, for 3:20. I have
done one marathon before, in Chicago, at a 3:30 time. In my first
marathon I started off very fast (for me), and finished very slow. I
was wondering if most participants have a similar experience, and what
kind of downward curve in pace is typical for most runners?
The plan for NYC is for the first six miles at a 7:25 pace, the next
six at 7:30s, then 7:45s for the rest of the race. I'm alloting two 30
seconds and two 15 second stops for water. Does this sound realistic?
Thanks.
Whilst it's true that most runners experience some type of downward curve as
you describe,
that doesn't mean that you should aim to run it that way.
Of course, you can never know exactly what pace you should be running.
There are several factors that you should consider.
(1) If you've run a recent 10K or 1/2 Marathon, *and* you've completed a
decent marathon
training program, then you can plug your race time into 1 of the formulas
(eg McMillan) and get a good idea.
(2) Weather. You should add a few minutes on a warm day. Wind - Headwinds
and tailwinds.
(3) The race course. Uphills, downhills. How flat is the course?
My best feeling in a marathon was when I ran a "negative split". I always
*plan* on running negaative splits,
although it doesn't always work out. :-)
If I were in your position and felt I had a realistic shot at 3:20 given
all the conditions I listed above,
I would go for:
7:50 1st 2 miles
7:45 3-6
7:40 7-12
7:35 13-18
7:30 19-end
Even if you ignore this advice and go for the "Time in the bank" method,
I would strongly advise against going out fast, and at least run the 1st 2-3
miles
at a slower pace.
Good luck!
Anthony.