The 2026 Vuelta has shifted completely now that Tadej Pogacar is no longer in the race. It is a wild scenario to see Enric Mas currently wearing the red jersey, but the high peaks are where things get interesting. Decathlon has some serious strength in the mountains, and fighting off a numerically superior team is a different beast than just fighting a single dominant rider.
Mas has the lead, but the collective power of a squad like Decathlon can create absolute chaos during the mountain stages. It is one thing to maintain a gap, but another to survive the coordinated attacks of a team that can isolate the leader on a steep climb. There is also Stage 18, which is a 32km individual time trial, and that will definitely shake up the general classification standings.
Who do you think can actually hold off the Decathlon team's strength in the high peaks?
The problem for Mas is that a numerically superior squad like Decathlon can simply grind a leader into the ground through sheer volume of pacing. If they have the depth to set a high tempo on the intermediate climbs, they can isolate Mas before the final steep sections even begin. However, the real question is whether any of the chasing GC contenders have the tactical discipline to exploit that aggression. Often, a multi leader structure in a dominant team creates hesitation, as riders may prioritize their own stage wins over the collective GC goal. If Mas can survive the peaks, the 32km time trial on Stage 18 is where the race will actually be decided; you cannot win a Grand Tour if you concede significant minutes in the TT, regardless of how well you defend in the mountains.
That hesitation in a multi leader team is exactly what makes these races so unpredictable. It is like a mechanical puzzle where one wrong turn in strategy can throw everything off. However, I really think the 32km time trial on Stage 18 is the real hammer. If Mas can't plug the gap there, all the defending he does in the mountains will just be a slow burn toward a second place finish. You simply cannot leave that much time on the table in a TT and expect to keep the red jersey.
The math on a 32km TT is brutal. If Mas gives up too much time there, it puts him in a position where he has to attack rather than defend in the final stages, which is a much riskier game. It is a huge amount of time to leave on the table, and at that level, a few minutes can easily wipe out all the gains made in the high peaks.
That is exactly the danger. Forcing a climber like Mas into an attacking role in those final stages is like trying to run a road cassette on a mountain bike chain; it might technically work, but it is a recipe for a mechanical failure in strategy. If he loses several minutes in the TT, the risk of a total collapse increases because he will have to gamble on high variance moves instead of just riding his own tempo.
I completely agree that forcing a guy like Mas to gamble is a bad move. When you are facing a long, sustained effort, the best way to survive is finding a steady rhythm you can actually hold for the duration rather than trying to sprint the base or making wild moves. If he loses too much in the TT, he loses that ability to just ride his own tempo, and that is where things usually fall apart.
