Jalabert's observation is correct, as reported in Velonews: "Former French star Laurent Jalabert, now a commentator for French TV, said, 'This is a Tour for all-around riders that could suit a man like Vinokourov.'"
Bruyneel: "This parcours is very similar to recent Tours and it’s a very balanced race. As a race, **the 2005 Tour fits Lance well**; but we don’t know it he’s going to race the Tour or not …we haven’t made a decision yet ..."
Role of Mountain Descent
Also, it must be remembered that LA is an outstanding descender of mountains. True, he doesn't always go as quickly as he could. But that's because it wasn't necessary to take risks on prior tours. On this one, I have no doubt that, if LA is in the lead in a mountain stage with a downhill finish, he will be putting in his most rapid descending performance (not that that is too helpful against a peloton descending). But I just note that LA is a much better descender than he has had to show during certain recent Tours.
JU only gapped LA on the descent of Col d'Aspin in 04 because LA was careful, in part because of the rainy conditions. True, JU's descent has really improved over time, but LA is at least as good a descender when it counts as JU.
Chris Carmichael discusses LA's descent capabilities: "Lance Armstrong has always been a very good and aggressive descender, and it's important to understand that this doesn't mean he's reckless or a daredevil. Rather, strong descenders are smart, know their limits, and stay within them (barely).... While many men have built their cycling reputations on their ability to climb mountains, few distinguish themselves with their descending skills. There is a limit to how fast you can safely descend, and groups almost always reform when the road levels out, so phenomenal descending skills won't give you nearly as much advantage as phenomenal climbing power. One man whose descending skills set him apart from the pack is 2002 Giro d'Italia winner, Paulo Salvodelli. "Il Falco" (The Falcon) as he is nicknamed, has been known to wipe out two-minute deficits on steep twisting descents."
http://www.olntv.com/tdf03/carmichael14.html
Then, there is the Beloki situation in 03. "Beloki’s crash (and Armstrong’s save): one of the most amazing moments in the history of cycling, and an image that will make every tour highlight reel ever put together. It points up a facet of bike racing that I think is often overlooked: handling skills. When they began that tricky descent--chasing Vinokourov--**Beloki’s director told him (over the radio) to let Armstrong take the lead, because he was generally acknowledged to be a better, bolder descender.** But for reasons of his own, Beloki forged ahead, on the front, taking chances and pushing the envelope."
The Beloki crash could also suggest Azevedo is a decent descender (??), as well as climber. Azevedo was among the first ONCE teammates to be by Beloki's side after the crash.
http://www.bikecal.com/bill/bill-0803.htm
Role of Team in Controlling Other Riders
This Tour route suggests that all-arounders are useful as Team members. It would be useful to have people who can be both rouleur-types, as it will be necessary to control breaks more (given the more limited opportunities for the leaders to recapture time) even in the early going. However, also you need the same people to be able to form little groups with you on the mountain passes so that you can descend as more than one person, and to permit the strategic opportunities raised by a long break-away involving a race favorite like LA (he would need some team members to be with him, to build momentum and keep the lead during descents). That is another reason LA and JU are best situated. They both have teammates who are pretty well-rounded, esp Azevedo, Popovych and Rubiera ini LA's case and Klodden and Vino in JU's case.
Contrary to popular belief, even though the penultimate stage's being an ITT adds uncertainty for each rider, I think the route favors riders who are well-rounded and who have strong teams. Hmm, that means LA and JU! :p
