Tour 2006 predictions.

1. Basso
2. Ullrich
3. Valverde or Popovych

This is strange from the TM website:

"Olaf Ludwig is also taking a new approach to selecting the team squad for the Tour de France. Together with Rudy Pevenage the team manager already announced the core squad during the second week at camp. If all goes to plan, the following riders will take their places alongside captain Jan Ullrich at the Tour: Serhiy Honchar (Ukraine), Andreas Klöden (Germany), Eddy Mazzoleni (Italy) and Michael Rogers. The other four spots in the Tour roster are still vacant – candidates are Lorenzo Bernucci and Giuseppe Guerini (both Italy), Sergej Ivanov (Russia), Oscar Sevilla (Spain), Matthias Kessler, Stephan Schreck, and Patrik Sinkewitz (all Germany)."

Of course it's evident some of the people in the running for the final four spots are better than others for JU. Guerini should be on, and Sevilla will be a lot more useful than Kessler, Schreck and Ivanov. Sinkewitz would be another preferable member.

According to Belgian Teletext, T-Mobile have announced that Ullrich, Rogers, Mazzoleni, Gonchar and Klöden are definites for July. The remaining 4 places will be from a list of Lorenzo
Bernucci, Giuseppe Guerini, Sergej Iva-
nov, Oscar Sevilla, Matthias Kessler,
Stephan Schreck en Patrik Sinkewitz.

Although Ludwig's said that this doesn't mean the others have been excluded already.

EDIT: OH BOLLOCKS.

Dead Star said:

According to Belgian Teletext, T-Mobile have announced that Ullrich, Rogers, Mazzoleni, Gonchar and Klöden are definites for July. The remaining 4 places will be from a list of Lorenzo
Bernucci, Giuseppe Guerini, Sergej Iva-
nov, Oscar Sevilla, Matthias Kessler,
Stephan Schreck en Patrik Sinkewitz.

Although Ludwig's said that this doesn't mean the others have been excluded already.

EDIT: OH BOLLOCKS.

1. Hamilton if he's allowed
2. Ullrich
3. Basso
4. Leipheimer
5. Vino
6.Landis
7. Popovych
8.Valverde
9. Hincapie (think ITT)
10. Kloden

You have to go with basso, he has a good team behind him. ullrich doesn't have it anymore, landis doesn't have full team support. vino isn't consistent over the whole tour. leipheimer has a good chance if he continues to improve. i think a suprise could be tom danielson if he can get his climbing legs on and improve on his ITT. hincapie can do some damage, but he is more of a classics rider and i think he will still put his time into the classics this season. it will definately be a good tour this year.

lancer_dancer01 said:

You have to go with basso, he has a good team behind him. ullrich doesn't have it anymore, landis doesn't have full team support. vino isn't consistent over the whole tour. leipheimer has a good chance if he continues to improve. i think a suprise could be tom danielson if he can get his climbing legs on and improve on his ITT. hincapie can do some damage, but he is more of a classics rider and i think he will still put his time into the classics this season. it will definately be a good tour this year.

I dont think Miss Danielson has the grinta, he'll ride the Giro this year, and the TdF next year, unless some dramatic changes happen. Thats the inside word. He has to prove himself over three weeks with less pressure, and yeah, better bike positioning.

How come everyone has forgotten Thomas Voeckler?
Surely he has to be the favourite.

patch70 said:

How come everyone has forgotten Thomas Voeckler?
Surely he has to be the favourite.

It would be nice to see Thomas doing somekind of stunt again, but Thuomas will never ever win a grand tour. He might win some hilly classics in the near future (Liége - Bastogne - Liége, Fleche Wallonne, Amstel Gold, that kind of races).

1) Ullrich

2) Valverde

3)Cunego

4)Basso

5) Hincapie...

wishful thinking probably but...

patch70 said:

How come everyone has forgotten Thomas Voeckler?
Surely he has to be the favourite.

who doesn't love Thomas after his stunt in 2004. But why bother pimping him for overall. He is French after all.

"Discovery has four riders who can contest the overall in France's biggest race, Bruyneel said: George Hincapie, Yaroslav Popovych, José Azevedo and Jose Luis "Chechu" Rubiera."

Per Velonews.

Come on, I don't think Chechu and Hincapie can realistically "context" the overall, if "contest" means to potentially win the GC. 😉 Even I can see that. :p

Bruyneel is not showing a lot of confidence in Ace. It will take a change, a demonstration of ability, for Ace to gain prominence in the team.

1) Ace was not at the Velodrome or wind tunnel for ITT testing.
2) Ace was not mentioned by Savoldelli as one of three joint leaders for the 06 Tour, in the Cycle Sport magazine. The three joint leaders mentioned by Il Falco are himself, Popo and Hincapie.
3) In a recent Ask Johan on thepaceline, Bruyneel indicated he was disappointed with Ace's performance last year and he had spoke with Ace.
4) Discovery channel (sponsor)'s new campaign, called "Race to Replace", tells, according to Daily Peloton:

"the compelling story of Lance's search for the new team leader and will get its viewers involved through celebrities, Discovery Cycling Team pros, cycling enthusiasts and kids. The Discovery Race to Replace will trace the story of the top five Discovery Cycling Team riders vying for the new team leadership spot: Hincapie, Danielson, Savoldelli, Popovych and Ekimov. As the riders proceed with their training and racing season, Lance and Johan will post commentary on line, as well as rider created blogs, rider stats video updates and more."

Eki is not a GC contender for the Tour, and that prevents him from being the real team leader of DC. Danielson is not riding the Tour this year, and that makes him unlikely to be the top cyclist on DC this year. Therefore, it really is between Hincapie, Popo and Savoldelli as tour leader. Ace is markedly not included in the above list.

This is the next phase of Discovery Channel team getting media coverage for their sponsor DC. LA will be commenting on how they see each of the five "contenders" as doing in their "Race to Replace" (a pretty catchy slogan). This is going to get the team and its sponsors more attention, based on the popularity of LA in part. :p

hombredesubaru said:

1. Hamilton if he's allowed
2. Ullrich
3. Basso
4. Leipheimer
5. Vino
6.Landis
7. Popovych
8.Valverde
9. Hincapie (think ITT)
10. Kloden

And where does cadel evans fit on your list? 😠 . Surely he will place higher than hincapie probably leipheimer, popovych and landis will all struggle to keep with cadel in only his 2nd tour attempt. Tyler Hamilton has no hope of winning let alone getting top 10.

My Order

Ullrich (ger)
Basso (ita)
Valverde (esp)
Vinokourov (kaz)
Evans (aus)
Kloden (ger)
Mancebo (esp)
Landis (usa)
Popovych (rus)
Cunego (ita)

...I think I got the nationalities right :p

dm69 said:

Popovych (rus)
Cunego (ita)

...I think I got the nationalities right :p

No, you didn't. Popo is Ukrainian. 😉

musette said:

Bruyneel is not showing a lot of confidence in Ace. It will take a change, a demonstration of ability, for Ace to gain prominence in the team.

1) Ace was not at the Velodrome or wind tunnel for ITT testing.
2) Ace was not mentioned by Savoldelli as one of three joint leaders for the 06 Tour, in the Cycle Sport magazine. The three joint leaders mentioned by Il Falco are himself, Popo and Hincapie.
3) In a recent Ask Johan on thepaceline, Bruyneel indicated he was disappointed with Ace's performance last year and he had spoke with Ace.
4) Discovery channel (sponsor)'s new campaign, called "Race to Replace", tells, according to Daily Peloton:

"the compelling story of Lance's search for the new team leader and will get its viewers involved through celebrities, Discovery Cycling Team pros, cycling enthusiasts and kids. The Discovery Race to Replace will trace the story of the top five Discovery Cycling Team riders vying for the new team leadership spot: Hincapie, Danielson, Savoldelli, Popovych and Ekimov. As the riders proceed with their training and racing season, Lance and Johan will post commentary on line, as well as rider created blogs, rider stats video updates and more."

Eki is not a GC contender for the Tour, and that prevents him from being the real team leader of DC. Danielson is not riding the Tour this year, and that makes him unlikely to be the top cyclist on DC this year. Therefore, it really is between Hincapie, Popo and Savoldelli as tour leader. Ace is markedly not included in the above list.

This is the next phase of Discovery Channel team getting media coverage for their sponsor DC. LA will be commenting on how they see each of the five "contenders" as doing in their "Race to Replace" (a pretty catchy slogan). This is going to get the team and its sponsors more attention, based on the popularity of LA in part. :p

It's too bad that Azevedo had a bad year in 2005. With two top ten GCs in the TdF (two top 6, actually), Azevedo has one of the two best records on Disco (with il Falco). A fit Azevedo should be the natural TdF/Vuelta choice for leader. Popo will be a contender in one or two years, but this year, Disco, I think, should concetrate on Azevedo making podium and Popo top ten.

While Azevedo was spectacular in 2004, 2002 was really his best year. Azevedo did a wonderful job in 2002 looking after ONCE. He sacrificed his GC on several climbs to pull his team and still finished 6th. A remarkable bit of cycling.

I'm a huge fan of Azevedo. Few cyclists of his caliber dedicate themselves to bigger talents like Beloki and Armstrong. He deserves far more praise than he has recieved.

His results really are remarkable for a basically unknown cyclist. He TTs well (10th in the last TT in 2004, 4th on L'Alp), and he is a natural climber. He is, perhaps, too humble, to be a champion. This is too bad. His talent is evident. I wish he would race more.

I agree Ace, if he were in form, is a much better choice than Hincapie as a co-leader (two cyclists) with Popo. I believe Ace has a lot of admirable qualities, and needs to come out of his shell more. Ironically, the self-sacrifice tendencies he had as a domestique will not serve him as well this year, unless he becomes a bit more self-focused.

Eki isn't really a contender for leading the team, despite his being part of the five in the "Race to Replace" campaign. He is the oldest cyclist in the TdF, and valuable, but not as a GC contender.

I think Hincapie and Danielson are part of the five in the "Race to Replace" campaign because they are American and that will add appeal to DC sponsor programming which is focused on this campaign theme. Danielson is way too inexperienced, and Hincapie is not strong enough consistently of a climber to get onto the podium (top 10 is a possibility, but probably not podium). Danielson has only finished one Grand Tour in his life.

Ace and Popo should be co-leaders for DC 06 TdF, with possibly Savoldelli (depending on how things pan out in the Giro).

Merckx thinks JU is likely to win the 06 Tour.
He said that JU's riding the Giro will be helpful to that.

musette said:

Merckx thinks JU is likely to win the 06 Tour.
He said that JU's riding the Giro will be helpful to that.

He is probably right,unless Jan gets injured in the Giro.
You just never know what might happen!

This discussion about Ace is really interesting. He was incredible in support of Beloki as he was in 2004 for Lance. Who knows really why he wasn't great last year. It is tempting to discuss him for overall. But I remember when he was signed to replace Heras. One of the big differences Johan pointed out between Ace and Heras was that Ace was a real career domestique. He was trained that way and really knew what it meant to be a dom. He showed that impeccably in 2004. While he visibly has the talent to contend for GC and has placed high, I am not sure he will make the change in duties to team leader and don't expect to see it happen. Surely there have been companies where the top Vice president performs amazingly well but does an awful job in replacing the CEO after they retire. Different job, hard to compare.

Bruyneel said that Ace was so devoted to LA in 2004 that, towards the end of the Tour even, Bruyneel had to explicitly instruct Ace to try and maintain his own top ten placement and not to go too hard for LA. 😉

I wonder if part of why Ace was so amazing in 2004 was necessity. Heras had just left, and Ace might have felt that he and Rubiera (together with Beltran) were the only people really likely to keep up with LA in the high mountains. With 2005, you have Giro winner Savoldelli and young up and comer Popo, and you also have Rubiera (although Beltran crashed out at a certain point). You also had an improved (climbing-wise) Hincapie in 2005. So, sometimes, not in cycling, but in life in general, if you feel you are "the" person to do something, you motivate yourself a lot more to do it.

On Courcheval, Ace was originally intended by Bruyneel earlier that day to be second-to-last in defense of LA (before Popo and after Hincapie). However, DC reported that Ace "called an audible" and requested that he switch with Hincapie. Bruyneel must not have been happy with that. :p

Ace has always been a very caring domestique. He was the first ONCE team member to reach Beloki at Gap, and stuck around to try and comfort Beloki. I don't know why ONCE let him go for him to be picked up by Bruyneel.

patch70 said:

How come everyone has forgotten Thomas Voeckler?
Surely he has to be the favourite.

What a character Thomas Voeckler.
He is a very good rider, could be a great rider. In my opinion, he would surprise people but he needs a team, guidance and self-confidence.

Lw