TDF 2007 picks

Andrija said:

I don't know about Karpets... He's good, he can TT, he can climb, but three weeks seems too much to him. And his position in team doesn't look like GC position. There's Piti, there's Pereiro... But it would be nice to see, as you said, someone like him to win this edition of TDF.

I am just thinking that the race looks very open this year. If something were to happen to Vino, whether it's a crash or a bad day or doping revelations from T-Mobile, there are a lot of people who would then be in contention. I don't know how to choose between riders like Evans, Leipheimer, Menchov, et cetera. They all seem to be very close to each other. Klodi always seems sort of fragile. Sastre does not time trial that well. Then you have a number of younger riders like Karpets who are on their way up. I am half expecting someone to put in a spectacular and unexpected performance.

Doctor.House said:

If the 1999 Tour was an indicator--the winner post scandal must be from a naive country with a large economy to help regain the lost revenues. Roid Landis blew that deal for Texas.

China is the future for the Tour de Farce---but no Chinese are entered this year.

France is my guess for a winner of the 'healing tour'. 2008 can be Asia.

Nike will endorse whomever wins, doping or no doping disclosure.

From that point of view Russia is logical choice... But Menchov is more likely than Karpets.

Bro Deal said:

I am just thinking that the race looks very open this year. If something were to happen to Vino, whether it's a crash or a bad day or doping revelations from T-Mobile, there are a lot of people who would then be in contention. I don't know how to choose between riders like Evans, Leipheimer, Menchov, et cetera. They all seem to be very close to each other. Klodi always seems sort of fragile. Sastre does not time trial that well. Then you have a number of younger riders like Karpets who are on their way up. I am half expecting someone to put in a spectacular and unexpected performance.

You're right.
In that context Schleck could be the man.

Go Cadel, wishfull thinking I know but he's gota be a chance for the first ever Aussie podium

lol @ leipheimer votes. currently he has 5 times the votes of valverde...Lots of americans on this forum...good on em.

I didn't vote evans or rogers...I would love to see them win it. Would be HUGE for cycling in australia.

Something tells me kloden will win...he can TT extremely well on his day see last TT of the 06 tour and I think in a 3 week race he can outperform vino and valverde in the hills.

Karpets could be the guy.

dm69 said:

lol @ leipheimer votes. currently he has 5 times the votes of valverde...Lots of americans on this forum...good on em.

Piti does not exactly have a great record in the Tour.

Piti would have gotten more votes if he wasn't listed by his dog's name. I think he will do very well.

Frankly, this race is so wide open that 5 to 10 guys could win. I'd love to see an unknown step up and win.

Bro Deal said:

Piti does not exactly have a great record in the Tour.

Klodi for the win.

Who exactly voted for Leipwhiner? What has he done besides win a domestic race this year? I honestly can't believe that there really are twelve people (so far) that honestly believe that he can keep up with Astana? I am a bit shocked. Are you people voting with nationalism or are you voting with your knowledge of professional cycling? Because after watching the progression of this years season Astana is pretty much unstoppable. They have been toying with the peloton all year long (and losing two riders to drug controls in the process). I will be shocked if Vino doesn't win this years tour.

weremichael said:

I will be shocked if Vino doesn't win this years tour.

what makes you believe that Vino could ever beat top climbers like Kloden in the high mountains? it never happened in the tour and it won't happen this year. Furthermore he is not even much better in the ITTs than Kloden. Kloden is by far the best overall rider in this tour.

Kloden for sure... has the best cred to win this year IMHO by a large margin and he's healthy which has been what has kept him back in the past. Really surprised to see that he's tops in the survey though since he's kinda under the radar but he's a better TT'er and a better climber than Vino... the last time he was healthy and in shape the only one that could beat him was Armstrong (he even beat his captain Ullrich) so on paper at least it has to be Kloden.

doctorSpoc said:

Kloden for sure... has the best cred to win this year IMHO by a large margin and he's healthy which has been what has kept him back in the past. Really surprised to see that he's tops in the survey though since he's kinda under the radar but he's a better TT'er and a better climber than Vino... the last time he was healthy and in shape the only one that could beat him was Armstrong (he even beat his captain Ullrich) so on paper at least it has to be Kloden.

Astana is actually not 100% committed to Vino as their leader, right now they say they have 3 leaders, I think they'll wait till the alpine stages to see who to back, I think it will probably be Klöden.

Klodi vs. Vino
What is the team name?
What is the team nationality?
Who is the team sponsor?
What colour are the team outfits?

Vino is a massive figure in Kazakhstan. Probably on a par with Michael Jordan a few years back in the US.

No chance that Klodi will win unless Vino has a crash or a major jour sans. Vino will ride this very differently to previous Tours when he wasn't the team #1.

patch70 said:

Klodi vs. Vino
What is the team name?
What is the team nationality?
Who is the team sponsor?
What colour are the team outfits?

Vino is a massive figure in Kazakhstan. Probably on a par with Michael Jordan a few years back in the US.

No chance that Klodi will win unless Vino has a crash or a major jour sans. Vino will ride this very differently to previous Tours when he wasn't the team #1.

yep... heard similar speeches in 2004 when Kloden got second and Ullrich got 4th... if (when) Kloden puts a minute into Vino in a TT or/and mountain stage things will change... they might like for Vino to win but if (i'd say when) Kloden makes it painfully obvious that he's the man things will and must have to change... they might like a certain scenario, but they aren't stupid... a win in the TdF is a win in the TdF.. a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... what if they bank everything on Vino and screw Kloden over and Vino crashes... nah... they aren't that stupid.. T-mobile a team completely built around Ullrich abandon him like the bismarck when it became obvious he wasn't going to make the podium and Kloden was the man, Astana will go with who ever is strongest on the road and more than likely that will be Kloden.

rockinchair said:

what makes you believe that Vino could ever beat top climbers like Kloden in the high mountains? it never happened in the tour and it won't happen this year.

That was the old Vino. The new Vino, with the help of Armstrong's dope doc, climbs a lot better than the old Vino.

doctorSpoc said:

yep... heard similar speeches in 2004 when Kloden got second and Ullrich got 4th... if (when) Kloden puts a minute into Vino in a TT or/and mountain stage things will change... they might like for Vino to win but if (i'd say when) Kloden makes it painfully obvious that he's the man things will and must have to change... they might like a certain scenario, but they aren't stupid... a win in the TdF is a win in the TdF.. a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... what if they bank everything on Vino and screw Kloden over and Vino crashes... nah... they aren't that stupid.. T-mobile a team completely built around Ullrich abandon him like the bismarck when it became obvious he wasn't going to make the podium and Kloden was the man, Astana will go with who ever is strongest on the road and more than likely that will be Kloden.

Barring something like a crash, I will eat my shorts if Klodi is allowed to beat Vino. See below!

Bro Deal said:

That was the old Vino. The new Vino, with the help of Armstrong's dope doc, climbs a lot better than the old Vino.

patch70 said:

Barring something like a crash, I will eat my shorts if Klodi is allowed to beat Vino. See below!

I hope you like tomato sauce, you might need to add some flavour to your shorts! Kloden will win with minutes to spare.

heinkel12 said:

I hope you like tomato sauce, you might need to add some flavour to your shorts! Kloden will win with minutes to spare.

I'll accept that as an unofficial wager...

I think the tour is tough to call.

Klöden has the best attributes in my opinion. He is in the top 3 TT'ers in the race and top 5 or 6 climbers in the race, and he has come close before. Some say he is mentally fragile, and though I cannot disprove it he has finished 2nd and 3rd before.

Vino is still the favourite because its his team. If he is in equal or close enough shape to Klöden in the mountains he will ride for the maillot jaune ahead of him. He is an improved climber and a very good TTist.

I think these two will be strongest, but both probably won't make the podium as one will work for the other.

The other podium places are really a scramble which is too close to call imo. Karpets, Valverde, Sastre, Menchov and Evans seem to be the favourites for it. But I wouldn't rule out Schleck, Moreau, Leipheimer or Contador. Should be fascanating stuff.